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Adam Schwartzbaum's Blog

Adam Schwartzbaum's Blog

The In-Specter

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Pat Toomey must be feeling pretty happy. Polls show him beating likely-Democratic nominee Arlen Specter in the November general election by comfortable margins. Democratic primary challenger Joe Sestak, his hope of pulling off an upset fading, spends him time telling Democrats that Specter is too conservative, while Toomey tells Republicans that Specter is too liberal. And both men continually bash Specter as an untrustworthy creature of insider Washington politics.

However, beyond the spectacle of the race—the accusations and drama surrounding Rick Santorum’s endorsement-for-vote scandal being just one example—things seem surprisingly static. The numbers haven’t changed much, the lines of attack and argument are consistent, and everything seems to point to a predictable primary next month. This is all good news for Toomey. Every time Specter is in the news lately, unless it’s for another predictable endorsement by a Democratic institution, it’s some foible by the aging senator, like Specter calling College Democrats “College Republicans.”

As for Sestak, with only five weeks until the primary, he has yet to use his $5-million war chest to unleash his last-minute blitz of television ads. With little over a month to go, his opportunity to move numbers now hinges almost entirely this blitzkreig. We’ll be watching closely here at The In-Specter to see if it makes much of a difference.

Things can quickly change in politics, and once the primary is over, the real battle will begin. Toomey shouldn’t get too comfortable with his lead in the polls. Despite his flaws, if there’s one thing Arlen Specter has proven time and again, it is that he can win hard-fought elections —including against Pat Toomey.

share001btn The more things change, the more they stay the same

April 12, 2010 at 2:01 pm

--Adam Schwartzbaum

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  1. Richard Saunders

    Apr 12th, 2010

    There is a model for Pat Toomey’s idea of “small government”. It was the hands-off approach taken by The Federal Govt.(under Hoover) and the Federal Reserve after the crash of Oct. 1929 which led, after 3+ do-nothing years to the great depression. Markets do not always work by themselves and doctrinaire small-govt. fools like Toomey are poor students of history when they ignore this.

    Sestak is an empty suit who still runs his office like he has scrambled-eggs on his cap. This so-called “true democrat” didn’t even show up to vote (in-person or by absentee) in many elections over the past 15 years. This so-called “true democrat” and his director of his Office in Media PA spent lots of time “pallin around” with the likes of Blackwater USA in a trade/lobbying group for the porkers who feed at the defense budget trough. Then there’s that too cute by half attempt to embarrass President Obama. Sestak tells the story of how his little girl’s bout with cancer propelled him into Public Service. Doesn’t he even know that the NIH, and medical research generally, has no bigger supporter than Arlen Specter?

    Specter may have some warts, but his skin glows in comparison to the other 2.

  2. Lee Levan

    Apr 12th, 2010

    I’ve seen reports that Sestak’s campaign treasury is down from 5 million as of the first of the year to 3 million as of March 31st. Since he’s not running media ads, on what did he spend 2 million in 3 months?

    I did get a large glossy bulk mailer form his campaign today.

  3. David Diano

    Apr 13th, 2010

    Lee-
    I’d love to see confirmation on those numbers.

    He has been spending a ton to fight VodVarka off the ballot including “hand-writing” experts to challenge sloppy signatures.

    I did hear that he is spending a ton on mailings in the Western part of the State.

    It’s often interesting to analyze his expenditures to see how much he spends on himself and family, and how little on his staff.

    Part of the 2 million you mention may be for advanced ad buys (with the Campaign Group getting it’s thick commission).

    Sestak is foolish to think that he can “blitz” Specter, and have it unanswered.

    Union workers are going to care a lot more that Joe fails to pay his workers minimum wage this year, than what Specter did last Century.

  4. bill healy

    Apr 13th, 2010

    What’s Arlen doing to do deny his record? He has voted as a solid republican for the past 30 years. He has changed his position on so many issues since he decided to run from Toomey that he could oppose himself. Arlen is no Democrat.

  5. Scott

    Apr 13th, 2010

    Arlen needs to retire. making a fool of him self

  6. Isaac L.

    Apr 13th, 2010

    This just reconfirms that Sen. Specter is a moderate – just like most Pennsylvanians.

    While the partisans might bicker about his flip or traitor ways, he’s showing that he doesn’t care about politics as much as he does about Pennsylvanians.

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