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The Admiral hits an iceberg
by G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young
According to sage Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Nevertheless, we boldly made one about a year ago appraising incumbent Congressman Joe Sestak’s primary race against born-again Democrat Arlen Specter. We ended the our op-ed last June this way:
Today the Admiral (Sestak), despite his many assets, looks less the prospective giant killer and more the kamikaze mission recruit. He might fool us all. But don’t bet on it.
Well now you can bet on it! Sestak remains the longest of long shots to beat Specter. The kamikaze mission is cleared for takeoff. The surname on Pennsylvania’s Democratic U.S. Senate ballot this fall will indeed start with an S. But the S will be for Specter, not Sestak.
This conclusion, however, is far from the conventional reasoning on this race. A recent boomlet in Sestak stock has been taking place thanks to some national media spinning a come-from-behind victory scenario—a script embraced enthusiastically by fervent Specter haters hoping against hope that the senator they love to hate will finally meet his just desserts.
Maybe someday! But it’s not likely to happen in May.
Sestak, despite a compelling personal narrative, a take-no-prisoners campaign style, and some early success in fundraising, has struggled against the resilient Specter. Real Clear Politics’ recent polls average tracks him running some 14 points behind Specter. And his most recent fundraising report shows the last quarter was his worst yet for raising new money.
Equally ominous, perhaps, is the tone of much state media coverage on the race. Emblematic was The Inquirer’s recent front-page article concluding that the Sestak campaign “so far has all the traction of a car with four bald tires traversing an icy mountain road.”
But why has Sestak’s early promise against the embattled Specter now come a cropper, despite the real and serious vulnerabilities incurred by Specter in a record-breaking sixth run for Senate? Analysis suggests three compelling reasons why Sestak has been unable to exploit the opportunities once available to him, and why Pennsylvania’s longest serving senator will live to fight another day after the dust clears on May 18.
Organizational support: Will Rodgers used to joke that he belonged to no organized political party because he was a Democrat. But the Pennsylvania Democratic Party has learned to present a united front when necessary. Just about every important Democrat from President Obama to Vice President Biden to Senator Bob Casey to Gov. Ed Rendell—and down the line—has jumped on or been pushed onto the Specter Express. This is not surprising. A Sestak victory in the primary will be seen as a stunning rebuke for state Democrats. The White House and the state party have considerable credibility at stake.
Specter’s political alchemy: Clark Kent used to jump into a convenient phone booth to don his Superman cloak. Specter this year has reprised the trick politically by changing into a true-blue, 100-percent-pure Democrat faster than a speeding bullet. For 28 years Specter was an uncertain part-time Republican; now in a single election year he has become an unambiguous full-time Democrat. In doing so he has effectively undercut Sestak’s charges that he is not a real Democrat. In fact Specter has become the ultimate loyal Democrat, vigorously supporting his new party and its new president’s agenda some 95 percent of the time. Specter has become more of an Obama Democrat than Obama himself, even recanting a few of his past Republican heresies—such as his recent suggestion that supporting John Roberts for a spot on the Supreme Court was a mistake.
Sestak’s strategy: Sestak’s plan to beat Specter in the final days of the race is essentially based on winning undecided voters with a shock-and-awe campaign while undercutting Specter’s support. His campaign plans to accomplish this by holding their fire for a final push, flooding the airwaves with anti-Specter themes, and leaving Specter little time to react effectively (pa2010.com has reported that Sestak is set to go on the air Tuesday morning). It’s a strategy that might work in a crowded field of candidates or against a candidate not well known, not well financed, or just inexperienced. Specter, however, is none of these. In almost 30 years in office he has seen it all, confronted it all and lived through it all. And he will live through the Sestak challenge.
To live to fight another day, however, is not to live forever. A Specter primary victory would be his first win as a Democrat. It could also be his last. Specter’s political life expectancy beyond May looks dicey. His race with Sestak is going to get closer—maybe much closer. Sestak has some $5 million to spend and no rainy day to save it for. Sestak may lose, but in the process he is going to rough up a candidate already roughly treated.
None of this is promising for Specter in November. And he will need all the help he can muster. Running against the formidable presumptive GOP nominee Pat Toomey in a year inauspicious for Democrats, Specter may be facing the toughest race of his political life. The Sestak challenge has wounded Specter in the general election race, forcing him leftward in support of an unpopular president’s unpopular agenda. In the end, Specter, in winning the primary battle, may lose the general election war, becoming another causality of the widening polarization engulfing American politics.
The writers are, respectively, a professor of Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and a managing partner of Michael Young Strategic Research. Politically Uncorrected, their syndicated column, is published here regularly.
April 20, 2010 at 7:45 am
--G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young
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Bruce Bailey
Apr 20th, 2010
When did Terry Maddonna start taking his talking points from David Diano? At least these guys acknowledge that they’ve been Specter backers from the start right up front.
Too bad they don’t back any of this up with anything other than the same mystical crystal ball that Diano’s been using. The one with the crack in it.
suburban dem
Apr 20th, 2010
specter/rendell shill…madonna and young been that way for years…almost think they root for toomey and corbett whihc is why they are embracing specter and onorato.
Lee Levan
Apr 20th, 2010
Fair comments by Bruce and SD notwithstanding, still . . . Tell me why the reasons stated by Madonna and Young don’t make sense. I would add to them that Specter has rounded up most of the labor support in addition to the support of the party regulars.
Contrary to M & Y, I believe that Sestak had a real chance to win this. But he stayed in dry dock far too long. Not ready for prime time and, like him or not, Specter definitely is a prime time politician.
Montco for Change
Apr 20th, 2010
Bruce you are nuts, you take conventional wisdom and turn it on its head. What do you plan on doing after the primary? You’ll be in a lonely place with how bitter you are towards the likely Democratic ticket.
Bruce Bailey
Apr 20th, 2010
SD – Case in point: their pre-PA Primary column back in 2008, when they led the cheerleading for Hillary and tried to make the case that if she won PA, she’d win the nomination, which was obviously untrue then and was being discounted as mathematically impossible for weeks before PA voted. Yet their column stated:
“…The super delegates who must now decide this thing will not be able to ignore what she has done, nor the messy problems left over from the aborted Michigan and Florida primaries. Nor will they find it easy to deny her the nomination. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, she will likely be the nominee.”
Famous last words. Much like the words in today’s column, come May 18.
David Diano
Apr 20th, 2010
Bruce-
They left out many other factors leading to Sestak’s eventual defeat:
1) no campaign manager
2) loss of key staffers
3) underpaid staffers are less enthusiastic
4) bad blood with lots of other Dems
5) lack of a coherent message. These don’t cut it:
“I’m not Specter”, “I’m going to single-handedly change Washington”, “Look at me, I used to be an Admiral.”
6) endorsed by Eric Massa!
Bruce, the real problem that you are overlooking is November. Even though Sestak’s hopes of winning have evaporated, like a spiteful child hes going to inflict as much damage as possible on Specter and hurt our chances in November.
suburban dem
Apr 20th, 2010
@DD–u forgot the most important reason…Sestak din’t pay homage to you and your voter software something or other…get real…your hate is showing…and you’re blinded by it.
David Diano
Apr 20th, 2010
suburban dem-
paying homage and paying what was promised are two different things
My attacks on Sestak started with his betrayal of the voters, the troops and his supporters in May 2007 when he voted to give Bush a blank check on Iraq. I was livid. Since then, Sestak has done numerous things to my friend and the Democratic party to keep fuel on that fire. Accusing the President of offering him a bribe and calling the House Democratic caucus the “most undemocratic place” on Earth are two examples of how egregious he’s become in attacking those who won’t kiss his ass and do what he wants.
BerksWoman
Apr 20th, 2010
I am lately thinking that Specter’s polling numbers vs. Toomey can’t really improve; he is well enough known by all Pennsylvanians. On the other hand, Sestak is not well-known statewide, and so his poll numbers can definitely go up. I think Dems do better with Sestak on the ticket.
Lana
Apr 21st, 2010
Nice article but Madonna and Young forgot to mention that Sestake ia a “SPOILER”. The little Admiral was removed from the Navy” and is under investigation by the FBI. If that is not enough add that to what David D said which is all true and you have a major loser.You don’t have to be Terry Madonna to read the political cards. What does Sestake have in the 67 counties of PA. Nothing to write home about at all. May get the 4 suburban counties, the 14th ward of Pgh. and maybe Perry County if he is lucky. He doesn’t have any of the big Democratic Counties and that means he just can’t win.
He now can take the 5 million and pay his family as he never paid any of his staff, that is for certain.
I can hardly wait to say goodbye to Joe as my congressman as he has been a disaster and missed over a hundred days in Congress which the tax payers paid him for to see PA as he never has in his life. He never even knew the 7th district until after he was elected as he wasn’t a Democrat until 3 days before he ran and he really was unopposed at that as the republican really didn’t even try eventhough their candidate was better than Joe the admiral.
Bye Bye Joe, it has been a real mess and you owe so many people their money back. Is it true that some of your former staff is now working for the Senater and actually getting paid a livable wage. Being a cheap SOB you have dug your own grave.
Lana
Apr 21st, 2010
Berks woman
I don’t understand your logic at all. Sestak is my congressman and is worse than the republican we had before him. So it seems that you have fallen for his lies, so be it but the SOB will not win. One ward in Philly will outvote all of Berks county as many just won’t vote as usual. Nice to go with the underdog but this one is a dead duck. BYE BYE Joe or should I call you NO SHOW Joe as that really fights Sestak to a tee.
Joe in Wynnewood
Apr 26th, 2010
Lana,
Give me a break. “he really was unopposed at that as the republican really didn’t even try eventhough their candidate was better than Joe the admiral.” You’re talking about Curt Weldon who went down in flames because he was losing his marbles and under investigation by the Feds.
As for Sestak’s registration status, many if not most high ranking active duty military officers do not register with a Party; it’s bad form if not actively discouraged.
As for the missed days, please relay even one important vote that Sestak missed. You can’t run for office from Washington. I’ve no problem with an elected official spending the time necessary to run for office so long as they vote when they are needed and take care of primary responsibilities such as committee chairmanships, etc. Can you provide ANY specific instances of shirked responsibilities by Sestak?