You’re right, Adam. Specter’s ads are smart. Why go negative first? He has a big lead; so he can wait for Sestak to go negative and then plausibly claim that he had to react to Sestak’s attacks.

If my memory serves me well, I believe that Specter used similar testimonial ads in his last campaign 6 years ago. Support him or not, Specter is a good politician. Assuming no surprise in the primary, it will be a fascinating general election campaign against Toomey.

The reason there is so very little of Arlen in the Specter ads is that Arlen’s ancient and ailing persona is one the best reasons to vote against him. Even with layers of pancake makeup, gallons of hair dye and the best lighting that money can buy, it is still clear that he is a very old man trying to play a young man’s game. And if Joe Sestak doesn’t raise that issue, you can be sure that Toomey will, should the frail, sickly Specter hobble through to the general.

Specter was smart to do these ads, because this is one of the places where he is most vulnerable — among blue collar workers throughout the state. For the past 30 years, Specter has done little to stop the state from bleeding away hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs. Other than bringing home pork, he has done little to address the structural problems facing the state’s manufacturing base, especially the issue of China’a manipulating its currency to give it an unfair advantage in trade. Specter only recently started making some noise about the whole currency issue, which to my mind is kind of closing the barn door after the horse has left. We had the most leverage when China was trying to get back into the WTO back in 2000 and Specter didn’t speak pu then. The state needed a stronger voice in DC to look after its economic interests. It would help Sestak to remind people about this, and portray himself as the more forward-looking legislator who can help bring the state’s economy into the future and portray Specter as MIA when it comes to the state’s big challenges.

This Arlen Specter is old, weak and owned by Wall Street. Why give six more years to a guy who will be back to being a Republican six weeks after the election?

Bob F –
Interesting analysis, but the reality is that Specter is most vulnerable among all Democratic voters who have been opposing him for the past 30 years. Specter’s support has ordinarily come from his Republican base and Independent voters, neither of whom can vote in the primary. So it’s up to Democrats next month to recognize that they’re being sold a bill of goods by their leadership, that Specter is no more a Democrat than is Rick Santorum, who endorsed Specter last time, or George Bush, who Specter wholeheartedly endorsed both times he ran for President.

anonymous — I’m not so sure how much people are worried about the “real Democrat” thing. A decent number of Democratic voters I’ve talked to are more concerned about electability in the general election — thinking Specter’s got more name recognition and appeal to moderates — so I think that’s the main hurdle that has to be overcome in the primary, not proving who hews more to Democratic policies and ideals. And I think one of the ways that you can overcome that is focusing people’s anger where it belongs, on Specter who can be blamed for a variety of things that people are currently upset about, including his lack of foresight/action on Pennsylvania’s economy (this obviously would play well in only certain parts of the state with significant manufacturing bases/not a place like Philly). Now if you wanted to make the argument that Specter couldn’t beat Toomey in the general election because he had a similar voting record to him, that maybe I would be more inclined to believe is a correct line of analysis…

There are a lot of Democrats out there who have always been closeted Specter supporters — they’ve now been able to “come out of the closet” and proclaim their loyalty.

The other dynamic is the former Rockefeller/Specter Republicans in the Phila. suburbs who are now Democrats (the biggest reason that Senator Specter switched parties). You get enough of these voters out and it’s almost impossible to win without a huge base in Western PA (one that Congressman Sestak does not have).

Bruce–your claims that Specter appears “ancient and ailing” shows that you don’t know what you are talking about and that you are an ageist pushing mean stereotypes about over 70s (the mean stereotype being that people like you assume they are all mentally and physically decrepit). Obviously you have no firsthand evidence of Specter’s condition and have probably never seen him. I’ve seen him at least every two weeks since February at various events (which shows he is campaigning hard and has the energy to do so), and he looks great for his age, not ancient and ailing. He was ailing back when he had cancer but rather than this being a sign of weakness him managing to work as a Senator through chemo and beating cancer multiple times was impressive and I doubt whether any of us could have done such. He’s probably tougher than you Bruce!

LeftyLucie-
Specter is not going back to the Republicans. Why would he? He never fit in before. And now, they are eating their young with political litmus tests that Ronald Reagan couldn’t pass. No, you are just completely wrong. Specter is with the Dems for the duration of his tenure as a Senator. The Republicans wouldn’t take him back if he begged.

Bruce-
It’s like the story of the old bull and the young bull. The young bull is so excited to run down the hill to procreate with the cows, that he arrives with no energy left for the task. The old bull is wiser and takes a leisurely walk down the hill and is full strength for the task at hand.

Senator Robert Byrd was 83 years old when he was re-elected in 2000. He was 89 years old when he was re-elected in 2006.

Did you object to Byrd running for office when he was older than Specter is now?

flynn-
You’ve got the analysis correct. Sestak has no support in the Western part of the state. He’ll do well in Delco, but he’s not going to take Philly, Pittsburgh or any big prizes.
The suburban Jewish vote is going to Specter, even stronger than it has before.
In 2004, lot’s of Dems changed their registration to Rep to help Specter out of fear Toomey making it past the primary. You can be sure they are going to come out for Specter now, as their best chance to defeat Toomey.

The biggest problem here is that it’s an uphill battle against Toomey. Even though all the polls show that Sestak would lose to Toomey by a wider margin, if Specter loses, the Sestak fans will all make the unfounded claim that Joe would have won. If Toomey wasn’t so terrible, it would almost be worth it to have Sestak run against him and get crushed, just to shut them up. Of course, then they’d blame it on Obama or something else.
29 more days of Joe.

David, I absolutely do think that Robert Byrd needed to leave office about 10 years ago. The only difference between Byrd and Specter is that Byrd is a Democrat and has always supported the things that our party stands for. Specter, on the other hand, has opposed everything Democrats believe in for the past three decades. And now he hobbles across the aisle and we’re supposed to bow down to him.

It’s great to see all the Specter sock puppets coming up out of the Specter hq basement to post here this morning. Hi guys! Glad to see you making good use of Arlen’s campaign funds!

For instance, “molly maguire” – are you paid staff or just a volunteer? I don’t “assume” anything about your boss – I’ve met the man and he truly is every day (and more) of his 80 years.
That is precisely the reason he is being kept off the TV ads. Did you know that the medical prognosis for a man with multiple cancer incidents at Specter’s age is measured in months, not years?

Arlen supports unions now? Hilarious! He was against card check before he was for it. What a jerk. I can’t believe Democrats fall for Arlen and his games. Do they not remember anything he did before 2009?!?!?!

Bruce-
What’s the “prognosis” for a guy with no name recognition and 20-points down in the polls against a well-funding incumbent who has the support of the President and the rest of the party leadership?

Sestak’s time left is now measured weeks (precisely four).

Tom-
Hate to clue you in, but Sestak opposed card-check by jumping into work on a non-card-check compromise before there was even a vote. Sestak was trying to have it both ways. Card-check without a secret ballot was DOA and everybody with a clue knows it.
As for the Labor Unions, they supported Specter over Hoeffel in the 2004 General election. Yep. so, supporting him now isn’t a stretch. They remember how he has helped them over the years.

As for support for workers, Specter not only voted FOR minimum wage increases (against the GOP tide), but actually pays his staff more than minimum wage. Sestak is unwilling to pay his staff (congressional, not just his campaign staff) the Federal minimum hourly wage.

haha, I KNEW David Diano would not let any criticism of Specter slip by. Your infatuation with that man is strange to say the least.

Tom-
How did I know you would remain as an anonymous person with no last name?

If you don’t think Specter has been a friend to Labor, why don’t you call Bill George and the other labor leaders and get a list from them (or just read their endorsements of Specter).

I’m no fan of Specter, but he’s a better man than Sestak (which shows how bad Sestak is).

Sestak was against card-check before he was for it (by working on the non-card-check compromise FIRST). Sestak’s office has not only violated wage laws, but discriminated against it’s female workers, in at least one case telling a young woman she was “hired for her looks”. Sestak’s the kind of boss that labor unions fight.