This poll was taken before health care passed. I think the Dems overall numbers will improve as fact is separated from fantasy. Toomey’s narrow lead is around the margin of error, especially small compared to the size of the undecideds. Toomey’s lead over Sestak is well outside the margin of error and shows Sestak is not viable.

Of course, even more crushing is Specter’s lead over Sestak. Of the 44% with an opinion, Specter gets 32/44 = 72.7% to Sestak’s 12/44 = 27.3%

Why would anyone expect the undecided to break much differently? The obvious conclusion of poll is that Sestak hasn’t made his case to replace Specter (and he’s run out of time).

It’s still too early for Sestak to start advertising. A month-long blitz starting in the 2nd week of April should be about right. Look for Specter to go dirty right from the start (with what? Sestak doesn’t pay his staff enough? Good luck with that…) while Sestak builds his bio. It’ll be a race to see who can define Sestak first and best.

I’d also expect Sestak to spend the final two weeks before the primary spelling out Specter’s lengthy Republican resume. That should be fun.

Bruce-
To the unions, which are almost universally supporting Specter, failure to pay minimum wage is VERY important.

For negative ads, I would just run clips of Eric Massa endorsing Sestak with the banner “Bird of a feather flock together.”.
(Of course on TV screens, a word like “flock” might blur the “L” and “O” depending upon the font.

Specter has a long record of good stuff to run on for positive ads.

But, Bruce, you seem to be convinced that Joe’s finally two weeks will all be about “running against something, not for something”. This is the opposite of Joe’s pledge when he entered the race. Clearly, Joe has nothing good to run on.

BTW, anyone want to make a friendly wager (no money) about how many ads will show Sestak wearing his military jacket?

Someone must have remember to turn on the moonbat signal to alert David Diano that a new poll was out. Nothing like a new Specter poll to get Dave excited. I wish I had a dime for every poll Dave has dismissed in this race.

Joe Vod Varka is still in the Race for US Senate on the Democratic side He will take all of western Pennsylvania Benidict Arlen and Slowstak will split the Eastern Vote you do the Math

Always predicted it, Spector wins over Sestak,
Toomey wins in the general, this country is going conservative, DEMOCRATS OUT!

Jim-
The only “race” at the moment is the Primary. The General election polls are bunk and amusement. The November election will hinge on the trend of the economy and Obama’s popularity.

The only reason I point out how far behind Sestak is relative to Specter (against Toomey) is because Sestak makes the unsupported argument that he would do better against Toomey.

Brett-
You are only half-right (the Specter over Sestak part), and a blind man in a fog could have seen that one coming.

I hate to say it; but it is too late for Sestak. I think that he could have won; but he needed to define himself to the public months ago when he would have been the only one advertising. His ads now will get lost among those of the other candidates. Specter will win purely on name recognition and party and labor support. The turnout will be low which is bad for a challenger like Sestak.

He had a rich vein of gold to mine in the huge number of unknowns and he had the money to do it; but he let his opportunity slip through his fingers by extreme delay. It appears there is some truth to the assertion that he and his campaign staff are a bunch of amateurs.

Lee-
I do agree that if he was actually the person he pretends to be (minus the creepiness), he could have won (or made a decent showing). The problem is that Joe tried to build a pretty house without digging a foundation first.

In 2006, he failed to be a team player, though few realized it at the time. He squandered the opportunity to build St. Leg. wins in his district to solidify a Dem powerbase. In 2007, he backed Bush over the Dems on the Iraq War. Later in 2007, he screwed the local candidates and flat out refused to help them. Again, no powerbase. In 2008, he hoarded $3 million dollars he didn’t need or use, while draining fundraising from and failing to help others. In 2009, he created gimmick after gimmick to run without running, killing any momentum he had in the spring. By the end of 2009, he again failed to give any significant help to local candidates in his district and failed to live up to promises of support he made earlier. Still no powerbase.

Throughout his 4 years on the political scene, Sestak failed to make any real friends and allies among his political colleagues. He failed to pay good people decent wages, and burned through all the available talent, until no one decent would work for him. He relied heavily upon a close-knit group of relatives and cronies without any real political experience or reach outside his immediate circle. He failed to live up to his promises and return favors, and thus found himself with no political capital when he needed endorsements and support.

His biggest failing of all was his enormous ego with his God-delusion. He fostered a cult-of-personality around himself and dismissed those who didn’t worship at his alter. Thus, he failed to get critical advice, but instead reinforced his own beliefs that voters would swoon over him.
Even though Sestak works hard, he never did the hard work of building relationships, trust or strategies. He pushed away the very people that saw this coming and tried to help him.

In the end, he has no one to blame but himself. However, he won’t do that. Like a petulant child, he’ll blame everyone else for being disloyal: Obama, the Clintons, Rendell, party leaders, local Dems (who he failed to help when they asked), and finally the voters.

Only eight more weeks left of his political buffoonery.

Dave, did you miss me? I have been working overtime, now that I have to pay for more free things for other people who have been ingrained with a non work ethic.

Anyway, I pop back on to our beloved PA2010 to find TOOOOOOOMMMMEY is STILL ahead of the Embalmed Arlen Specter.

With the black cloud hanging over Washington, this is a small sliver of sunshine.

David-
Just to clarify, I made the prediction that Spector would beat Sestak early on and you are wrong about Toomey, even though he is very conservative, Spector will have a lot of negative things brought out about him in the general.

95 South-
I’ve been working undertime to get the free things you are providing. Thanks.

Brett-
With Toomey’s opposition to health care and his party of NO attitude, don’t be so sure. Toomey isn’t merely “very” conservative, he’s “ultra” conservative.

Yes David, ULTRA Conservative and just the direction our country is going with the health care battle…anyway compadre, love the dialogue with you.

Davie, the best things I have to give you are Corbett and Toomey victories.

Brett-
The country will reject this far Right-wing Tea Party turn down the path of oblivion if the Dems show them the better path.

95 South-
Gee, that’s like getting TWO sacks of horse manure under your Christmas tree.

David-
The Dems do not have a better path..the die is cast, the Dems are going down.

Brett-
The economy is improving (slowly). We are heading in the right direction, so it’s more a question of how much people will notice/realize this.

David,
Let’s hope you are right.