I am mostly in agreement with you Dan. People keep pointing to the gap between Specter and Sestak, which averages about 20 points, but you’re right to emphasize how many people don’t know enough about Sestak to make up their minds. As I have said, this could cut both ways, but it does reveal at least an opportunity for Sestak to make a run at a win.

That said, even a huge push by Sestak in the last six week won’t necessarily translate into a win. While Sestak still has hope (and cash on hand), Specter’s sustained polling among Democrats, strong institutional support, and equally impressive cash reserves make me believe he will almost certainly win the Democratic nomination.

Very good points Dan.

Of course the Specter/Toomey shills on this site will argue with you, but fortunately you are the one doing the analysis.

For Specter to have 100% name recognition and still be this low in the polls should have them really frightened. The door is open to Sestak and if the ad campaign is effective… he’s got it on May 18th.

Dan-
I agree with you about the timing of the ads, and the cost. However, Sestak’s got nothing to run on BUT biography. 3-stars, sick daughter, not being Arlen, and cliche calls to change Washington

He really doesn’t have a message, party support nor infrastructure. Sestak’s ads will just be pictures of Specter with Bush and Santorum supporting him in 2004. But, Specter won in 2004 and he has the support of the current Democratic president (and quotes of Santorum attacking him at CPAC).

Specter will have tons of ads with not only major votes that everyone knows about, but pictures with every prominent, recognizable Democrat in the state and beyond. He’s even got pictures with Ted Kennedy passing hate crime legislation.

So, in terms of potential TV ads, Sestak’s bringing a knife to a gun fight.

rplinpa-
Specter’s low numbers that you cite, only mean that people are open minded to a viable alternative. Sestak and Toomey aren’t.

Dave – “Not being Arlen” should be plenty. The rest is gravy.

As I said in a previous post, I will not vote for either one of these megalomaniacs in the May primary and I will only begrudgingly vote for the Democratic nominee in November. Neither man stands for anything but his own ambition. This gutter campaign has been a disgrace to the Party; a Party to which neither man has had any long term commitment. To h*ll with both of them.

Bruce-
It might be “plenty” with a decent candidate, a professional campaign staff, a message, and a history within PA politics. Sestak has none of those things.

Can you imaging how well a sharp guy like Josh Shapiro would be doing with Sestak’s money against Specter?

If Sestak had run a competent campaign, he really had a shot at this. But, he dragged out his “announcement and entry” into the race for months. He’s spend years alienating people that could have helped him. He has hardly ever engaged in helping other candidates (so, he didn’t create “winners” who could be supporting him now in gratitude).

Bruce, still, though, you point to the crux of Sestak’s problem. His message is: “I’m not Arlen.”
That’s insufficient.

Dave – I’ve already said that I’m on-board with supporting Specter with my vote should he win the primary. Are you ready to go on-record with a similar pledge, now that Dan Hirschhorn has affirmed that this is anybody’s primary?

When Joe Sestak wins in May, will you be a Sestak supporter?

Bruce-
One other point: have you ever noticed the lack of person grooming in many of Sestak’s staffers that are actually out in public?

This is the typical look:
http://bit.ly/92K4GV

Seriously, it’s like he’s not even paying them enough for a hair cut or to buy a 50-cent razor.

The Specter staffers I’ve met have been pretty much clean-cut and clean shaven.

The scruffy look of the staff is not going to appeal to voters. Maybe the idea is to make Sestak look clean-cut by comparison?

Bruce-
You’ve also said you wouldn’t work to help Arlen, beyond your vote, either.
I won’t vote for Toomey and I will certainly go after him on his extreme right-wing policies. I won’t be wearing a Sestak button.

Actually, you overstate Dan’s “affirmation”. Dan is merely suggest that Sestak still has enough time to turn this around. However, Dan’s predicating that on Sestak doing a good job of advertising because of Oxman’s “The Campaign Group”. Dan doesn’t take into account the lack of message, nor Specter’s ads.

Did you really just make an issue out of the look if the Seatak staffers? You really think that matters? I would imagine it’s more about how they present themselves in speech and manner.

After the controversy over many Sestak staffers being paid below minimum wage I would be interested in seeing Sestak’s poll numbers among liberals/progressives and union members. Liberals and Labor have rallied around the living wage issue for years and this recent dust-up has not helped Sestak’s cause with the Democratic base.

Aside from the living wage issue, Specter has earned praise from progressives fighting for health care reform. I was on a statewide conference call with a national progressive organization targeting Senate incumbents for defeat in 2010. But unlike Blanche Lincoln, they are very comfortable with Specter and have no plans to intervene in the primary.

With the Left seemingly cool about Sestak, will his pending $5M ad blitz seek to burnish his military credentials and appeal to moderate/independent-leaning Democrats? It would be ironic considering Sestak began the campaign as the progressive challenger to Specter.

Dave, you didn’t answer the question: I will support Specter with my vote if it comes to that. Will you support Sestak with your vote in November?

Try vedi-
I only mention it because Sestak is so big on image. Also, because a few years ago I met a former Sestak congressional staffer who quit because she was told that she was hired for her looks, not her opinions, and her “job” was to look good for Joe in public.

Brian-
In 2004, Specter got union support. So, he’s already had a decent relationship with labor, and his votes to support minimum wage increases distinguished him from the GOP pack.

There is additional irony about Sestak having to tack back to the middle. It’s pretty obvious that Sestak’s had his eye on the Senate seat for a long time. His first year in Congress, Sestak’s voting record is actually less-progressive than the district itself. (see progressivepunch.org) So, Sestak had been on a clear path to appear moderate/conservative/Blue-Dog in hopes of appealing to the center and western counties. Specter’s entry into the race, forced Sestak further to the Left (and had the side-effect of inviting Specter to expand to the Left).

Sestak’s going to have a tough time tacking back to his natural location on the Right.

Bruce-
I won’t vote for Sestak under any circumstances. I believe he’s a cancer on the party and a terrible person. I’ll vote for a third-party candidate or write in “Josh Shapiro” if it comes down to it.
However, I consider it a moot point, as Sestak won’t make it to November.

Diano, Perhaps you would be specific as to the circumstances under which you left the Sestak campaign when you did. There are many rumors as to the circumstances (some say it had nothing to do with Sestak but rather your “relationship” to a staffer), and your unrelenting attacks on the campaign show you are a wounded puppy.

Hearing from you the exact circumstances would go a long way toward determining your credibility. For all we know you are playing us by being PA’s Rush Limbaugh. Remember when he urged people to support Hillary in the PA primary because he thought she would be easier to beat than Obama? Could it be you are urging folks to support Specter knowing Toomey could beat him easily because you are actually a Toomey operative?

Just curious. Perhaps you could clear up all your connections here as you seem to have an awful lot of internal information from the Toomey campaign.

rplinpa
I never “left” the Sestak campaign. I was there until the last days of the campaign, and even provided a Polling Place look up software service for them on their home page for election day.

I was never a staffer there. I provided support to Sestak as well other candidates in my role as an active Delco Democrat. Once Sestak’s operation was off the ground after the Primary, I pulled back to help other candidates, the party, focus on my regular (paying) job, and blog against the Weldon people.
As for the Sestak staffers, there were a few too many “mercenary” staffers that didn’t care about the rest of the Delco candidates in Joe’s district. One particularly odious field director told me she didn’t care if all the other candidates lost, as Joe was the only candidate that mattered. She was not alone in this attitude.

The Sestak campaign did stiff me on the computer services I provided and failed to hold up their verbal agreements on compensation. Despite that, I still supported Sestak until 6 months later when he made his Iraq vote to give a blank check to Bush. At that point, I realized that Sestak had betrayed us all. I not only wrote a letter to the campaign cutting off all future support, but wrote two scathing editorials against Sestak that was published in the Delco Times.

I don’t have any internal Toomey campaign information (though I’ve heard that Toomey has copies of Hate Sestak information).

Being the “not Arlen” Democrat when Arlen has a 38% reelect number is a great position to be in. The Democrats I’ve talked to want to support Sestak but worry that he’s not as safe a bet as Specter. Again, the 38% reelect number tells you all you need to know about who the safer candidate is.

Diano:

Shestak is strong for the following reasons:

He has always had grass roots, tea party support – or hatred, depending on which wing you are speaking about. These people care deeply about social programs, equality and military service. Sestak has the corner market on thse issues, and will promote them almost to the exclusion of everthing else.

Where does that leave Specter?

Secondly, Sestak will capitalize on his military record to wrap up the tea party groups in a bear hug that few can resist. There will be no Specter response to these promotions to Shestak, because they cant.

Finally, when Sestak enters the arena, in southern Pennsyltucky, he will fall back on his military service to get their votes on board. Again he has the corner market on this big item, and all related aspects.

Now, having said that, I dont think Sestak can win without Toomey’s support. This will not happen, so when all is done and set, Specter may come out second place behind Sestak.

He may bring a knife to a gun fight, but Shestak’s gun isn’t loaded. And Specter’s knife is sharp, and will punch through.

I wouldn’t place too much trust in HateSestak’s information against Sestak as any reason to vote against him (I truly can’t be bothered with empty allegations). But with that being said, I generally agree that Sestak only has a position of “I’m not Arlen”, and that’s not good enough on it’s own to win an election. Specter has a fairly progressive record on labor and health care, which right now are two of the issues that can help to get the economy back on track.

Jon-
But in that same “38%” elect for Specter, Sestak has like a “10%” number.

Mancini-
Sestak’s the one bringing a knife to the gun fight. Specter already has the big guns on his side.

The Tea Party (or grassroots) crowd isn’t going to embrace Joe for his military record. He got by on it in 2006 because the Iraq War was THE big issue and Sestak promised to oppose it.
Instead, Sestak folded like a cheap suit and has embraced war and more war. He’s a 4-star phony and even military people are getting sick of how he parades around with his jacket as a substitute for policies and ideas.

His military background might be more helpful in the General against Toomey. But, Sestak’s campaign will be over by May 18th.

[...] is to raise his name identification before May 18, which isn’t necessarily very difficult — as others have pointed out — with more than $5 million already in the [...]

According to PoliticsPA, Representative Sestak claimed that Senator Specter had “insinuated” that he is a “criminal.” Given Representative Sestak’s conduct, one can certainly understand why his fellow Democrat would “insinuate” such a thing. When an elected official serves the interests of lawbreaking labor union racketeers as opposed to the interests of his/her constituents, it is understandable that such an “insinuation” would be made. When an elected official unlawfully uses the seal of the House of Representatives on campaign literature, it is understandable that such an “insinuation” would be made. And when an elected official is party to a criminal frame-up of an innocent person, it is understandable that such an “insinuation” would be made. Don’t you concur, Representative Sestak?

Incidentally, Representative Sestak also claimed that Specter “insinuated” that he was a “deserter after 31 years in the military.” But…you ARE a deserter, Representative Sestak. You have all but abandoned the people of the 7th District, none of whom have benefited from your unremarkable tenure. You have all but abandoned the Democratic Party, making baseless and unsubstantiated allegations against the incumbent Democratic President. You have all but abandoned the common man, serving only your own interests and those of various racketeers. If Senator Specter has “insinuated” that you are a “deserter,” then his “insinuation” is well-founded.

Oh – and Congressman? Today was not a good day for you. I mean, really, it wasn’t. Really, really, really bad day. Bye’.

Dan

Closing with a tv climax is pefectly good strategy. But it’s not inconsistent with my opinion that Sestak should have begun advertising much sooner.

He should have started slowly. Get his name heard and then remembered. The frequency and length of his ads and meatier position ads would build to a climax just before primary day.

Waiting till Specter and other candidates start to advertise means that Sestak’s name will get lost in the crowd. His biggest disadvantages vis-a-vis Specter are his lack of name recognition and the fact that voters don’t know enough about him. He needed to fill those gaps early, when he had the media to himself.

We’ll see what happens in 76 days. I hope that I am wrong.

Hater-
Really bad day? I’m assuming you mean something more than another bad poll. Email me privately with what happened.

Lee-
What you are suggesting is similar to what I had suggested to Sestak’s 2006 campaign early on to improve his name recognition. Even in June 2006, after the (uncontested) Dem primary, Joe’s name recognition was under 30% (although he had more recognition as “that Admiral guy”).
He was too cheap and cautious to spend money early and define himself before Weldon could. Weldon made the mistake of treating Sestak as not a threat (to “diminish” perception of Sestak as viable) and waiting to long to define him. So, the mistakes wound up canceling, allowing Sestak to get further into the race.

But, Lee, Sestak’s other disadvantages are lack of organization, infrastructure and ground game. He’s making a fatal mistake in the ground game and doesn’t realize it. He’s putting his eggs into one basket, and it’s the wrong basket.