and loses 98-2 in the rest of the state.

I expect Joe to do well in SE PA.

We need to see a statewide poll that includes Pennsyl-tucky.

Seems suspect he wouldn’t also release numbers on Wagner or Williams.

“…that is sure to change when his campaign begins advertising on TV.”

Why does Onorato get this benefit-of-the-doubt analysis, yet Sestak — who is in pretty much the same boat in Western PA — doesn’t?

David Diano, we don’t need to constantly read your racist comments about the rest of the state. Your insular views are disturbing and have no place in political discourse. Despite what you believe, there is life outside SEPA, and it’s a a good life. You couldn’t pay me to live in “DelCo” or “MontCo” or whatever other little stupid names you call your counties.

Ditto Bruce Bailey. How much money does anyone actually think Onorato’s going to end up spending in SEPA? At the end of the day, even a month’s worth of TV in the most expensive market may not get him the big bump that apparently the PA2010 staff is banking on for Onorato.

John-
“racist” comments about the rest of the state?

Should I praise the backwater hicks with more ammo than brains?
The majority of the state lives in Philly and Pittsburgh areas. That’s where the wealth and revenues are generated that pay for the roads and bridges that connect you to civilization.

Enjoy living in Butt Crack, PA.

Bruce-
Onorato would reach more people advertising in SE PA than Sestak would advertising in Western PA. Philly market reaches 40% of the state’s Dems.

Onorato can afford to p*ss away a few million in Philly, because it will also help in the General, and he’ll still have plenty of money.

Sestak stated that he will spend “every penny” for the primary, so if he were to prevail, he’d start the General election phase with an empty tank, and Toomey millions ahead. Another “brilliant” Sestak strategy!

Sestak’s numbers just don’t add up.

Hey Bruce Bailey,

I see what you’re saying, but I would argue that, while the landscape is surely different, we’ve analyzed Sestak’s campaign cash in a very similar way.

To see what I mean, check out this blog post I wrote a little while back.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/03/some-thoughts-on-sestaks-poll-numbers%E2%80%94and-tv/

I welcome your feedback.

Dan Hirschhorn

Dave, you and I both know that a Sestak-Toomey race would instantly generate netroots cash flow amounting to millions. Add in all of the stakeholders that would be horribly screwed by a Toomey win and the Sestak tank will refill very, very quickly.

Again – this is a generational, party-defining primary. And the question is very, very basic: do we take orders from the top down, or do we support candidates from the grassroots up? We have been told — ordered, actually — by national and state party bosses to support Specter. That doesn’t sit well with me, or with most rank and file Democrats that I know.

Yes, I certainly believe that Joe Sestak is the better candidate. But in another respect, it could be my dog Chestnut on the ballot and I’d vote for her over a lifelong Republican I was being told to get behind.

Bruce-
The Netroots cash won’t be enough to overcome a 3 million lead by Toomey. Sestak won’t be able to refill the tank that quickly (if at all).

If he does attempt to refill the tank, he will only be draining the tank from the 7th and other critical races.

Bruce,

I agree that Specter was foisted upon us. Do you believe Sestak is the better candidate because 1)he is a better alternative to Specter who was foisted upon us after years of beating or 2)flat out because Sestak can win in November?

Dave – that’s absurd. We’re talking about a US Senate nominee; how on Earth would that “drain the tank from the 7th.” What we’re saying here is that any nominee — including my dog Chestnut — is going to be flooded by motivated donors.

TB – Both.

Sorry, that was me above.

Just to set the record straight. I am a long time political activist—backing Arlen Specter. No one-not the Governor-not the Vice-President-not the President-TOLD me or even asked me to support Sen Specter. I and most other members of the State Committee felt that he was the better Candidate to represent the Dem National Platform and win the Election. Cong Sestak, also a fairly new Democrat, a lifelong Independent, should have tried to retain his Congressional seat. No one told or ordered anyone to support Sen Specter. What do you think THEY(the mysterious They plotting against the grassroots)would have done to us for not supporting Sen Specter??? Take away crackers and cheese at the next State Committee Meeting?? In my Heart of Hearts, I’m backing the better person to represent the people of Pa-Sen Arlen Specter. I also do not live in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia or any of the charming bedroom counties and I have to say that David’s discriminatory comments about us are offensive.

Anonymous-
Sestak does drain a lot of fundraising from other candidates in his district. There’s a limited amount of money people are willing to donate in a cycle. Sestak drains a lot of it from the district, and leaves meager crumbs for the other candidates.

Don’t forget, Sestak ended his 2008 7th District campaign with $3 million in the bank. The other Dems in his district challenging for GOP seats were struggling for cash. Sestak had ZERO coat tails, despite his margin of victory. Lentz won in 2006 without Sestak’s help. There have been no other ST. Leg gains, or county-wide office wins under Sestak’s “leadership”.

State Committee Woman-
Don’t take offense about the rest of PA. I’m just screwing with John. However, the conservative Dems there do hurt the party and need to realize that they are often voting against their own interests.

FYI, here is a Democracy for America Poll> Primaries Matter (http://www.primariesmatter.com/election_vote):
Senate Primary
Arlen Specter 29%
Joe Sestak 64%
Undecided 5%

Governor Primary
Jack Wagner 8%
Joe Hoeffel 39%
Dan Onorato 13%
Anthony Williams 2%
Undecided 35%

Depending on which candidate one supports, one may argue, if they so wish, the merits of this Poll, or lack there of, but the numbers are what they are, at least of this Poll. I guess the question is, just how reflective of reality are these numbers?