Michael Livingston's Blog
Michael Livingston's Blog
Purple in Pennsylvania
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Exaggerating the political consequences of the health care bill
What will be the effect on local congressional races if the Democrats pass health care using the reconciliation tactic? To hear Republicans tell it, it will be an outrage that spells the final doom for the Democratic Congress. Democrats, meanwhile. suggest it will inspire their base and revive their fortunes.
Who is right?
My guess is that both sides are exaggerating. I don’t think it will turn out any large number of liberal voters, but I’m not sure there will be much outrage, either. I simply don’t think most people understand the procedural rules enough to care. And the substance of the legislation—which is in any case largely delayed—will be of limited effect on the majority of voters who have health insurance, anyway.
The biggest impact of the health care debate is not whether it passes or not, but that it has gone on so long. Almost a year has now been spent without addressing jobs, the economy, and the other issues most people care about. That’s the main problem Democrats have now, and the health care bill—win or lose—is not going to do anything to solve it.
March 17, 2010 at 12:55 pm
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Bio: Michael Livingston is a law professor at the Rutgers University in Camdem and was a 2008 Republican candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania's 2nd District. He also blogs at http://mikelivingston.blogspot.com.
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Jim
Mar 17th, 2010
You really believe that because most people have health insurance they won’t care about this bill? Umm, will they care about footing the cost for it through their tax dollars? Will they care about increased debt? Apparently not. According to you, they will just sit at home and do nothing. We’ll see.
Lee Levan
Mar 17th, 2010
Jim
In your imaginary world, this bill will cost the taxpayers money. In the real world, it will save them money. Check out what the non-partisan CBO says.
I agree, Michael, that a vote for the healthcare insurance reform bill won’t have much of an effect this fall; although I do believe that, to the extent that it has a negative consequence, it will be felt to a greater extent this year than at any other time. I say that because, as the provisions of the bill take effect over time (as you pointed out), people will become more familiar with the benefits of the legislation and it will become a net benefit for those who supported it. Meanwhile, the “process argument” is merely inside baseball to virtually all but those who have already made up their minds.