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Beth Hegedus's Blog

Beth Hegedus's Blog

 Suburban Snapshot

The brewing battle in the 8th (Updated)

CORRECTION APPENDED (See bottom)

TV journalist Larry Kane said this week that the race in the 8th District will be “one of the greatest congressional congressional races in the nation”—and that it will end with a “razor-thin margin.”

I agree, and former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick will be the one to pull it out over incumbent Democrat Patrick Murphy. [Disclosure: I work for one of Murphy's Republican opponents, former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick.] Overnight in politics is a lifetime, and we have no idea what can happen between now and November.

Of course, Fitzpatrick has to get through the primary first. And yes, there are candidates that deserve credit for making noise, getting people passionate about electing Republicans, and not sitting back and letting the Bucks County Democratic machine just plow them over. All of this is good. All of this is small-D democratic. All of this bodes well for the future of the Bucks County GOP. But this is not the year for the bench. This is the year for one man who can bring back common sense to the voters of the 8th district.

People don’t change overnight, but for Fitzpatrick, as he said in his anouncement speech, “being away from political life for four years has given me a new vision.” He is a changed man, and because of these changes, he is looking at things differently. He has called for term limits, caps on campaign spending and an open primary in which the local party forgoes an endorsement. That takes guts and moxie.

Fitzpatrick knows what it’s like to campaign, knows what it is like to talk to constituents and then deliver on campaign promises, and he definitely knows how to raise money. He also has the name recognition and brand that winnable candidates need. And, most importantly, he has been a public servant since 1994.

Right now, with what is going on in Washington on health care, jobs, security, immigration and more, the people of the 8th district can’t be particularly happy with the job President Obama is doing.

Of course, it’s a long time until November 2. And while I like Larry Kane, I disagree. I will be more than glad to serve him his humble pie with a fork and a spoon on Election Day.

Correction: Looks like I’m the one who should be eating humble pie—I misread Larry Kane’s remarks. He said the race would end in a “razor-thin” margin, but he did not make a prediction as to who would win. My apologies to Larry.

share001btn The brewing battle in the 8th (Updated)

February 24, 2010 at 12:27 pm

--Beth Hegedus

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comments [16] | post a comment

  1. Adam B.

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Wow, one of Mike Fitzpatrick’s employees thinks Mike Fitzpatrick is super-awesome and will win!

    In other news, water is wet.

  2. Change in 2010

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Get ready for the flood of stimulus money, 8th District! Buying votes is the only hope Murphy has left, and there’s no limit to the number of dollars he will steal from future generations to keep his job – in the end, the only “Green” job in Bucks.

  3. Anonymous

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Pretty disingenuous, Beth. As part of the Fitzpatrick infrastrure, I don’t know why pa2010 allows you to write pro-Fitzpatrick articles.

    What you call a “changed man,” most people call a flip-flopping.

    What you call a public servant since 1994, most people call a career politician.

    I guess if you allow Mike to reinvent himself in 2010 and ignore his past positions on Card Check, drilling in ANWR, earmarks galore, immigration, etc., he’s the perfect candidate.

    Bottom line, Mike will lose to Murphy – which is why I will be supporting Gloria Carlineo, Ira Hoffman or James Jones on May 18.

    Fortunately, the voters and not

  4. BitterB

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Here’s the problem I see with this race. I want to see Patrick Murphy sent home. I really despise his voting record in Congress and will work very hard to get him out of office, just as I did in 2008.

    But Mike Fitzpatrick hasn’t given me one reason to vote for him yet. Should he win the primary and go on to be the candidate in November, the only reason I can even remotely consider voting for him is that he’s not Patrick Murphy. But as we saw in 2008, that doesn’t win this election. Nor will it, even with the anti-incumbent attitude, in 2010.

    If I might be so bold, I suggest your team figure out how to inject a little substance into the campaign. Silly little pledges about term limits when he couldn’t even hold on to the seat in the first place don’t create activists for your candidate who are inspired to go door-to-door talking to their neighbors.

    I don’t believe that a far-right campaign will win in Bucks. But at the same time, the same talking points about being independent mean nothing without a little substance. On what issues will he be independent? What serious policy plans will he push that will help the industries that hire Bucks County residents? None of these questions have been answered. Even when he was clearly in the race, he wouldn’t face the thousand or so people at the candidate forum in January, so we don’t know where he stands.

    Hell, at this point, I don’t just need to hear policy ideas, I need to hear campaign ideas. You say Fitzpatrick knows how to campaign. But last time I checked, he lost his seat even when he had the advantage of incumbency and Patrick Murphy was a no-name upstart. What on earth makes him think that doing the same thing over again will work? You have to convince primary voters that a vote for Fitzpatrick isn’t a vote for the same tired machine that lost in 2006. At this point, I don’t think any of the other primary candidates will knock Murphy out, but I’m willing to consider them just to help them get some campaign experience. They are fresh blood, and Fitzpatrick has to remember that he is not. He’s already been booted by the voters of this area once, and he needs to tell us why he deserves another shot.

  5. Adam

    Feb 24th, 2010

    What was the point of this column?

  6. Tail Gania

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Really, Beth? Please stop using this blog as a promotional tool……..

  7. Michael

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Beth,
    Keep posting your blogs…because you can. Isn’t freedom of speech great.

  8. Anonymous

    Feb 25th, 2010

    Murphy has the first re-elect under his belt. It may be tight but he will pull it off in the end. Incumbency, regardless of political climate, is powerful. Unless of course you are Mike Fitzpatrick.

    I’d like to remind Beth that the election for House member from the 8th District is between Fitzpatrick and Murphy; not Fitzpatrick and Barack Obama. Beth did not mention what Fitzpatrick would do differently than Murphy if he were elected. Not a single policy proposal or direction was stated. She is cheapening the the level of debate with her happy crap.

  9. Mancini

    Feb 25th, 2010

    Murphy, Fitzpatrick, O’Bama…what’s the difference, just three Irish guys fighting for the keys to the kingdom.

  10. ha

    Feb 25th, 2010

    If Fitzpatrick “wins” the GOP primary (he’s already been appointed to the spot, in spite of his calls for an open primary,) I’ll likely vote for Murphy. I hate to do that, but I would rather have Murphy in the spot in 2012 so that a true conservative with actual convictions can run against him instead of being stuck with Fitzpatrick for years. (Term limits. Right. Sounds like a talking point) Fitzpatrick doesn’t seem to have much to offer except for close ties to the Doylestown GOP.

    And I also don’t understand why Hegedus is running puff promotional pieces for Fitzpatrick and trying to pass them off as news.

  11. Bucks Voter

    Feb 26th, 2010

    Bucks Voters
    Suburban Blog:

    Gloria Carlineo will defeat Patrick Murphy and represent the people of PA-8 in Washington!

    (Disclosure: I work for the Solbury Committee Woman] 80 days in politics goes very quickly and Mike Fitzpatrick should withdraw and watch as new blood and conservative principled ideas take over this district. Let Jones, Carlineo, Lingenfedder and Hoffman duke it out. That would take guts and moxie Mr Fitzpatrick.

    I disagree with the party bosses supporting him. I will be more than glad to serve them humble pie with a fork and a spoon on Election Day.

    P.S. Since this is my blog please visit Gloria’s website at http://www.carlineo4congress.com or look for her on Facebook at Carlineo for Congress :-)

  12. justamom

    Mar 5th, 2010

    It should be noted that Fitzpatrick lost the election in 2006 to Murphy by less than 1500 votes, one of the closest races in the country. That, in a year where anyone with an R after their name no matter who they were, were vulnerable because of Bush’s unpopularity at the time. Even conservative Senator Rick Santorum lost his race that year for the same reason. It was the republicans that did not vote that elected Murphy and look where that has left us. Murphy played the war card and and his expereince as a veteran with a promise to end the war which we all know he did not come through on. Fitzpatrick has the best shot a beating Murphy this time. I will support whomever wins the primary and think it is good we are having an open primary. Any republican that would not do the same does not really care about stopping the Obama agenda they only care about their own agenda. To those that are cynical about the motives of the GOP calling for the open primary, you would have complained about what they did either way. You would have called them out if they had not endorsed just as you are calling them out for endorsing.

  13. Mystapitt

    Mar 13th, 2010

    justamom,

    I agree with much of what you say except, Mr Fitzpatrick has already demonstrated he will NOT be a pure voice and secure vote vs. the Obama/Pelosi agenda. He voted for card check, cap and trade, against drilling to name a few key issues. His Conservative credentials are not strong. I encourage you and others to support candidates like Carlineo in the Primary. The poster above gave her website. Check her stand out on these issues and give her a shot.

  14. pa mom

    Mar 28th, 2010

    Carlineo is a DC insider- she worked there for years before she came to Bucks. Murphy moved here to run. Fitzpatrick was born and raised here- is raising his family here- I’d vote for him over those two.

  15. When blogging, it is preferable to deal with core-issues and discard overt-spin. Beth’s column ID’ed Mike as a “changed man,” and this has led to his having recognized–for example–that a few of his prior positions had to be updated.

    The consensus viewpoint of the commenters is that there is a overwhelming need to defeat Murphy. Dealing less with ad-hominem and more with substance, it is desirable to examine the four GOP-candidates…and hope that Tom won’t drain potential-GOP voters in November.

    The structural argument that has emerged is that this is a race between Mike and non-Mike, with Gloria trying to attract the others to unite behind her…any whichway possible. This includes trying to remove JJ from the ballot (unsuccessfully) and then quoting his angst when he emeres from the morass. This includes acting dismissive about Ira (on another blog site), despite his having articulated comparable positions. [When it appeared that he had not been sufficiently anti-Iran during the speeches @ the Wanamaker's Tea Room "Tea Party" on the Tuesday of the blizzard, I asked him to clarify his remarks--at Mike's Healthcare Rounddtable, on Friday of 3 weeks ago in Perkasie--and he "said the right things."] And this includes inflating her projection of cash-on-hand, when 90% of her ~$100K represents a candidate-loan.

    As a contributor to Mike who does not live in Bucks (albeit an Abington Committeeman), I was swept into observing this race after Beth reminded me of our chat on Yom Kippur 2007, the night Laura Ingraham discussed her new book @ the Ben Franklin Hotel. I had gravitated to “vetting” his viewpoints after a close-friend, Bob Guzzardi, had raised questions (yes, way back then) about his fealty to voters vs. party.

    Even then, I was impressed by his candor and eye-to-eye [contact] delivery; he did not shy away from completing a thought as we descended a stairway…when he could have exited. This is how vividly I recall the interaction to have been.

    So, this is the mindset that I drew into 2010. I nnoted with satisfaction that Gloria attended the “Mock Trial” @ Temple U. when Tony Barletta elucidated the rationale for his anti-enabler statutes (work and shelter), and I enjoyed her speech @ Arcadia when Obama visited.

    But the problem I have with her–and the underlying motive that Beth might have harbored when composing her essay-is the unnnecessary negativity that she has spawned, as evinced by the blogging emanating from her supporters.

    Would it not be preferable to remember that, recalling and corrupting-slightly the memorable quote from Walt Kelly’s “Pogo” strip of the 1960′s/1970′s, “The enemy is out-there!”

    Each candidate should be demonstrating how he/she would compete against Murphy…not against each other. This is what has been appealing about Ira and JJ, when they have articlated their pathways to their conservative beliefs, and this is what has been thematic from Mike.

    Again, more “informed consent”: After Mike was endorsed by ATRO [Abington Township - Rockledge Borough Republican Organization], he was “pressured” to reassess his dedication to adhering to a totally-open primary. This was prior to the massive turnouts he generated @ multiple events [recall his announcement, the aforementioned Forum, the St. Patrick's Day event which drew ~600 @ $60/per...including kids].

    I was told of his popularity by coworkers and family, not just by politicos. This is what I reported-back to Guzzardi, who consistently tethers him to Cawley and a Bucks-machine that is linked to Bond contracts. Absent a smoking-gun, I have advised him that there is no justification to oppose Mike in any demonstrable realm. [Guzzardi will report-back....]

    So, this is my analysis of the situation. It is now to be synthesized.

    The Tea Party Movement is alive/well, but it must not misplace its energies. Ponder, in contrast, what is transpiring in the 6th District, where Gerlach (whom I’ve supported in the past, big-time) has defended Earmarks up-the-gazzoo, even before a TPM-audience last month. He is opposed, however, by a neo-isolationist, Pat Sellers; imagine if he were confronted, instead, by any of the three people opposing Mike. He would have great difficulty maintianing his balance, recongnizing the demographics of his district (including that great chunk of the Main Line, Lower Merion). It is here that, fortunately for Jim, a guy like Curt Schroder (or, very very possibly, Steve Welch) did not remain an active competitor; note now well Curt fared @ the ChesCo endorsement event, for example, to sense how the more conservative republicans would manifest themselves.

    Therefore, in the 8th, we have a case of misplaced emotional commitment, combined with a somewhat-justifiable attack on Mike’s credential purity. Recalling the adage, “Let not seeking perfection become the enemy of recognizing the good,” those who have revved-up their fervor for Gloria must note with some trepidation the concern that she is building a campaign more upon negativity than upon positivity.

    As evidence, I note a blog by “BucksRight” today, in which the reasons to support Gloria appeared after the other candidates had been trashed, almost as an aftersight. One cannot live by simply citing an engaging “personal narrative” alone.

    What are her accomplishments in ANY realm, domestic or foreign? What publications has she submitted to peer-reviewed journals, in ANY seriously-studied context? What C.V. entry provides evidence that she has received “seasoning” in any meaningful manner (beyond being a D.C.-staffer)?

    Mike draws upon public policy experience on multiple governmental levels, and he has the open-minded personality and individual/independent observations (domestic/foreign) which will afford him a definable edge when debating (and tracking) Pat. He is not a pretty-boy, he is not a patrician, he is not a prototypic party-hack.

    He is an energetic campaigner who has demonstrated this capacity when attracting support from prior-opponents (such as Rob Mitchell).

    He is focused and driven.

    Those who would gamble on untested competitors would best take pause before exerting themselves in this contest.

    [If anything I typed--here or elsewhere--has any putative flaw, please BOTH upload the counter-evidence AND shoot me an e-mail: rsklaroff@comcast.net.]

    One final point. I frankly got lost in the hyperlinks when attempting to discern the “beef” in today’s blog by “BucksRight.” Particularly with regard to her concern with the “Crime Bill”–which will have to be researched, I suppose–I cannot figure-out the source of her anger. Also, Mike says his environmental-based oppostion to one amendment in the oil-drilling bill was based on prior Bucks-County “Open Space” Policy. Thus, it is difficult to conclude that he has swerved to the libs, as his critics would have the skim-reader believe. Again, let’s deal with facts more than emotion, and perhaps a consensus view will emerge….

  16. For a further fleshing-out of substantive issues, the reader may wish to review information that has been uploaded elsewhere:

    http://www.bucksright.com/in-support-of-gloria-carlineo-for-congress-5490

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