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Specter still leads Sestak by 17

Specter still leads Sestak by 17

Senator Arlen Specter’s lead over Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) held steady over the last month, with the incumbent still leading his Democratic primary challenger by 17 points three months before the primary, according to a new poll.

The Franklin & Marshall College survey released Wednesday showed Specter winning 33 percent of the vote, compared to 16 percent for Sestak, a margin identical the poll’s findings in January. Forty-four percent of voters are still undecided in the primary.

While Specter’s lead remains a comfortable one, it is less than half the edge he held over Republican Pat Toomey at this point in 2004. Toomey closed in that race and almost knocked off Specter in the Republican primary. Sestak has more money than Toomey did at the time, and the race is almost sure to get much closer when the candidates start advertising.

Specter’s favorability ratings also held steady in the poll, with 32 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 45 viewing him unfavorably. The primary survey of 481 Democrats has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Click here to see the poll.

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February 24, 2010 at 9:38 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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  1. Bruce Bailey

    Feb 24th, 2010

    That horrendous favorability rating is a death knell (figuratively; this is not a comment about his being 80 years old) for Arlen Specter as Senator. Generally, anything in the mid 40s is cause for concern; if only 32 percent of voters say you’re OK, then the bread is down, the coils are lit and you are toast.

    Once Democratic voters across the state realize that they have a chance to vote for a real Democrat instead of Arlen’s 30 years of propping up Republican Presidents and ideals, they will flock to Joe Sestak. I can’t wait for May.

  2. PA Race Watcher

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Why does anyone even pay attention to this stupid poll? The numbers are always so off from every other reputable pollster because of the percentage of voters they allow to be undecided.

  3. HateSestak

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Yes, dismiss the poll altogether – because Representative Sestak is not a viable candidate anyway. Plagued by staff unrest, an Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) bribery probe, an Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) inquiry, and of course an utter, complete lack of enthusiasm among voters, Sestak’s prospects are extraordinarily bleak. And now, in his infinte wisdom, Sestak has antagonized the White House. Sestak for Senate is little more than a public spectacle at present.

  4. David Diano

    Feb 24th, 2010

    The General election numbers for Specter are of great concern. Sure. But, Sestak is doing less well against Toomey and their next debate will widen Toomey gap over Sestak.

    A Dem primary will force Specter and Sestak to spend millions that will not illuminate the extreme right-wing positions of Pat Toomey.

    Sestak is going no place fast.

  5. LoveSestak

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Hate/Diano:

    What happened to “If you can’t say something nice…” You just won’t give up. Realize that Sestak is the better Democratic candidate!

  6. HateSestak

    Feb 24th, 2010

    LoveSestak: Kindly return to the Sylvan Learning Center from whence you came, and remain taciturn. Oh – and advise Richard Sestak, Elizabeth Sestak and Margaret Infantino (and perhaps her spouse as well) to retain legal counsel immediately, if they have not done so already. They defintely are going to need it. Dysfunctional family units and federal investigations – quite a combination.

  7. Bruce Bailey

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Absolutely the only thing in this poll worthy of note is Specter’s favorability rating. The horse-race numbers do not matter 12 weeks out, they will change dramatically once we get into the final six weeks of the race. But Specter’s favorability among Democrats? That’s a very deep well, one that the aging, sickly, fake Democrat is never going to climb out of.

  8. David Diano

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Sestak Lover-
    Sestak is a terrible candidate. He’s failed to gain any traction. His campaign is in disarray. He relies on gimmicks and tired, cliche sound-bites, rather than real discussions of the issues. Toomey would rip him apart (if Specter wasn’t going to do it first).
    Please don’t lump me in with Hater.

    Hater-
    You’ve done your part in bringing out more details. Interested parties and reporters are now more aware of what is going on, and the ball got moved forward a few more yards this week.
    Tone down the rhetoric. Even the people you are advocating for think you are going a bit over the top (particularly your comments about Joe and his mirror). Sit back and watch the show.

    Bruce-
    I appreciate the consistency in finding one number in that poll that Sestak uses as his talking point about the Specter “favorability” rating. But, Sestak’s “favorability” rating is 10%. That’s not good either.
    Sestak can’t “assume” that all the “undecideds” will magically fall his way.
    If it’s Sestak vs Toomey, it’s going to be low turnout, which hurts the Dems.

  9. Chesco dem

    Feb 24th, 2010

    Sestak’s campaign has no message and realies on platitudes. He’s not a good speaker and stands no chance against Specter. He keeps loosing staff while he should be gearing up for the primary. He doesn’t have enough money to start running ads before the primary. No one outside of this area knowns his name. Sestak clearly thinks waaay too much of himself.

  10. Rob

    Feb 25th, 2010

    Specter cannot win. Even if he wins the primary (and I don’t think he will, not with so many people who view him unfavorably, think he does not deserve reelection or are undecided about him), Toomey will cream him in November. Some might not like him, for reasons that the rest of us have a tough time discerning, but he is the Democrats only chance in the fall.

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