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The top 5 stories that set the stage for 2010

If 2010 is to be an unpredictable political thunderstorm, 2009 was when the clouds gathered into position. There were many developments that set the stage, but here’s our take at the most important ones.

5. Tom Corbett’s free campaign. With the state Attorney General’s Harrisburg corruption probe now well into its third year and with no end in sight, it’s increasingly clear what kind of political capital the investigation affords the GOP’s gubernatorial front-runner. It’s simple really—so far, Corbett hasn’t had to really campaign. His operatives do little to engage with primary opponent Jim Gerlach. The campaign does relatively little to court the media. And it doesn’t have to. So long as Corbett gets free publicity from indicting people before a state grand jury, accusations of any potential conflict of interest hardly outweigh the political benefits. Whether and how Gerlach is able to disrupt this pattern could be the key to the primary.

4. The never-ending budget debacle. It’s 2010, and technically, the budget that was due in 2009 isn’t even done. Sure, an agreement was struck, but the gaming elements of it remain in limbo. Numerous polls have demonstrated that voters are ticked off by this type of legislative logjam. And there’s every reason to believe they’ll hold it against anyone already holding elected office, whether or not said politician is at fault. This anti-incumbent move could grow ever-more toxic as time goes on, especially since it’s exceedingly like that this year’s budget will again be late.

3. The appeal of an open seat. Seats in Congress don’t grow on trees, so when one opens up, a bevy of DC-hopefuls emerge. That’s what we’ve learned from the races shaping up in the 6th and 7th Congressional District, where, respectively, Jim Gerlach is running for governor and Joe Sestak for Senate. The result has been crowded primaries in the 6th and high-powered candidates in the 7th. Together, they are two of the most competitive House races in the country, and promise to keep the spotlight on southeast Pennsylvania all the way to Election Day.

2. An open field in the guv’s party. While Republican leaders have worked hard to anoint Tom Corbett as their candidate to succeed Gov. Ed Rendell, the incumbent’s Democratic Party has kept things far more uncertain—five candidates, none topping 15 percent support in any public poll. Sure, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is still seen as the front-runner. But with the primary still more than four months away, anything can happen.

And the top story that set the stage for 2010 is… Arlen Specter switches parties. Nothing did more to reshuffle the Keystone State’s political landscape than the longtime Republican senator’s decision to join the Democratic Party in his attempt to win a sixth term. It made a high-profile Senate race the most attractive in the country, prompted a rising-star congressman in Joe Sestak to challenge the White House and the governor and set up the most daunting challenge of Specter’s long political career.

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January 3, 2010 at 10:15 pm

--pa2010.com Staff

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  1. David Diano

    Jan 4th, 2010

    5- Gerlach would have to indict Corbett. :-)

    4- The Dems need to explain how the Republicans caused the problem.

    3- Yep, it’s going to be interesting

    2- Onorato and Wagner could split the Western PA vote, leaving an opening for Hoeffel.

    1- Sestak was a rising star. Now he’s a falling one. Specter’s big challenge will be in the Fall against Toomey. The primary will be a warm-up.

  2. Mike Kelley

    Jan 4th, 2010

    Has anyone truly considered the Green and or Libertarian parties as viable alternatives to the “duopoly” of the Republocrats? If not, check out http://www.gp.org and http://www.lp.org for more information. At this point, nearly ANYTHING would be better than what we currently have.

  3. Greg K.

    Jan 4th, 2010

    I’d just like to point out that Sen. Specter wasn’t joining the Democratic Party so much as re-joining/returning to it. A semantic point, no doubt, but an important one nonetheless.

  4. Lee Levan

    Jan 4th, 2010

    Hey Greg

    How important is your semantic point compared with Specter’s support of Bush’s 2 wars, the oppressive “Patriot Act”, tax cuts for the wealthy, the weakening of environmental laws and Bush’s denial of the man made causes of global warming, the unprecedented growth of national budget deficits, etc.?

    That’s the real issue in the campaign. You can’t trust Specter to do the right thing — except the right thing for Specter. That’s the only reason he changed parties. He’s pretty much admitted that himself. It’s not back to the Democratic party. It’s back to the party wich can do him the most good.

  5. David Diano

    Jan 4th, 2010

    Lee-
    Sestak voted to fund the Iraq War, without timetables or accountability, in direct violation of his campaign promises.

    Sestak’s only opposition to Obama’s troop escalation was the timetables (Sestak wanted it open ended).

    Sestak voted for warrantless wiretaps and telecom immunity. The Patriot Act passed 98-1. There no chance in hell that if Sestak were in there instead of Specter it would have been 97-2.

    And if Sestak had been there instead of Specter last February, the stimulus bill would NOT have passed. Sestak never could have brought over Snowe and Collins.

    Sestak has shown himself to be a hawk. He has zero credibility as a proponent of peace. Talk to some of the Delco peace-movement people that picketed Sestak office. He courted them during the 2006 campaign, then blew them off once he got in office.

    Fortunately, the right thing for Specter is also the right thing for the Democratic party. Specter is a pariah in the GOP, so he’s not going back there.

    I was at at New Year’s party with my friends from high school. Everyone else at the party was a liberal, Jewish, suburban Democrat. Though it was admittedly a small sample size, there was 100% support for Specter over Sestak.
    I don’t think Quinnipiac will take a poll there, and Rasmussen would find a way to make it a 90-point gap instead of 100, but it’s a pretty good indicator that Sestak is going to get crushed by the SE Jewish vote. These are the Dems that voted for Specter when he was a Republican.

  6. Anonymous

    Jan 5th, 2010

    I think the sleeper story of 2010 is the one we may not see for 8 years. The Republican Lt. Gov nomination race and subsequent primary. If the 8 year cycle is real, there will be a new Republican Gov. and Lt. Gov. If the right combination is picked and govern effectively, you may actually have a challenge to the cycle come 2018. This is clearly one of the most consequential Gubernatorial races in a generation. The LG candidates seem to sense this.

  7. PA Political Astrology: Narrowing down the candidates for Governor (Part 1) « Mercury x3: WordPresser-Virgo Stresser

    Jan 11th, 2010

    [...] that may not be a big deal because of his apparent lack of need for campaigning  (See header: Tom Corbett’s Free Campaign). On the other hand, Corbett has been accused of targeting Democrats over Republicans for [...]

  8. PA Political Astrology: Narrowing down the candidates for Governor (Part 1) » AstroDispatch.com » Astrology Around The Web

    Jan 21st, 2010

    [...] that may not be a big deal because of his apparent lack of need for campaigning  (See header: Tom Corbett’s Free Campaign). On the other hand, Corbett has been accused of targeting Democrats over Republicans for [...]

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