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The state of the Senate race

As we begin a new year, the dynamics of the race for Arlen Specter’s seat have become very clear. Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, spends all his time attacking both Sestak and Specter, while Sestak and Specter are focused almost exclusively on attacking each other.

The easiest way to observe this dynamic is through each campaign’s respective e-mails and releases. Toomey’s messages, aside from announcing the occasional event at which he’ll appear, are primarily geared at painting Sestak as a far-left liberal and Specter as an opportunistic Obama lackey; as one recent Toomey campaign missive put it, Sestak is the “Forthright Liberal,” while Specter is the “Opportunistic Liberal.” Recurring subject headings like “Extremism Watch” and “Hypocrisy Alert” give a good sense of Toomey’s tenor, which is aggressive, hyperbolic and almost exclusively about being “against” things like “big government” and “the public option” rather than advocating solutions—rhetoric that sounds remarkably similar to that of the tea-baggers currently grabbing all the media attention as the new face of activist conservatism.

However, strident opposition and conservative dogmatism isn’t the Toomey campaign’s only pedigree. True, the campaign has spent much energy attacking Democrats and their agenda. Yet Toomey has also given suggestions that he will be running as a moderate. His attacks on Sestak’s and Specter’s alleged “Extremism” isn’t a call to move them dramatically right, but rather to join him in the “sensible” middle. Perhaps no greater example of his tone of moderation is an e-mail his campaign sent out last Fall entitled “Toomey Praises Obama’s Inspiring School Speech.” That speech, which was lambasted by some hard-right conservatives as an Orwellian attempt to brainwash our young people with socialist Obama rhetoric, was rightly lauded by Toomey.

Rather than playing to the politics of fear and automatic dissension, Toomey bravely praised the Obama administration—and did it again just a few weeks later, commending it for its support of charter schools.  Deny it though he may, it’s pretty clear that Toomey’s campaign has made some indications of moving to the center. Toomey is walking a fine line here, throwing red meat to the hardcore right wing while keeping his eye on the large swath of moderate and independent voters who will likely decide the election come 2010.

On the Democratic side, the vast majority of e-mails from both the Specter and Sestak campaigns, when not pumping the virtues of their candidates, are attacking each other, with little to no focus on the coming general election showdown. There’s plenty of tit for tat; Sestak has his “Real Arlen Specter” site, while Specter has his “Sestak Corrected.” Sestak’s focus is on casting Specter as a untrustworthy DINO whose recent streak of liberalism is purely a result of political grandstanding in an election year. His campaign often repeats the meme that Specter is “following Sestak’s leadership” on a host of issues.

Specter’s attacks on Sestak are less focused, though Sestak’s absence for many votes in the House has been a familiar punching bag. His campaign concentrates more on his institutional support in the state Democratic establishment and on convincing Democrats that he really is the solid Obama vote that he says he is.

Can Sestak overcome Specter’s establishment support, superior fundraising and incumbent status to pull off an upset in the primary? And will either Democrat emerge so bruised from the primary fight that the now essentially tied race against Pat Toomey will become an insurmountable uphill climb? As the primary nears and voters begin paying closer attention to these midterm elections, these two questions will be key to understanding who will sit in Arlen Specter’s seat come 2011.

January 11, 2010 at 10:30 am

--Adam Schwartzbaum

Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey

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