This is really bad news for Arlen.

The poll says that among registered Dems, Specter was viewed favorably by 35 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent.

That is just horrible for someone who has held statewide office for as long as he had. Everyone already knows this guy. The half of the primary electorate that is undecided is gonna end up breaking to Sestak.

IMO, Sestak has a much better chance of beating Toomey. Six in ten general election voters say it’s time for a new senator.

From the poll:
“the moment half (47%) of registered Republicans are likely to vote in November
compared to only about one in three (35%) Democrats”

I find this VERY unlikely. In 2010, we have not only every St. Leg and Congress race, but a Senate race and Governor’s race. To assume anything less than 50% Dem turnout for an even year election with so much at stake, seems shortsighted. I understand that the numbers lead to that conclusion for the “if the election were held today” mentality, but the PA Dems don’t think much about voting unless there is heavy advertising about the election close to election day.
I think the turnout will be more likely 53% Dem, 60% Rep and about 30% for the Independents/Other.

What was turnout in ’94?

Bad News-
’94 is so far back it’s irrelevant. We can look to 2006. Rendell, Casey, same state senate district races, and same congress/leg races and a battle for congress.
My estimates are roughly the 2006 turnout numbers. Toomey is a right-wing extremists like Santorum. Casey was a bit conservative for the Dem base, but was able to capture the middle (pro-life issue canceled itself out).

I have to disagree with your IMO. Wanting a new Senator doesn’t mean wanting Sestak. Also, the poll shows that voters don’t realize what an extremist Toomey is. Specter can show that, and hold the middle. Sestak can’t. He’s pretended to be on the left too much.
Everybody will be happy with some of Specter’s votes and unhappy with others. But, if Toomey’s in a lot of Dems will be unhappy with ALL his votes (and the GOP may feel that way about Sestak). But, with Specter, everybody’s going to get at least some votes they like. That’s been Specters strength all these years.

Dave

Your complete lack of political knowledge and blind following of Specter talking points is mind boggling. Here is what the poll says…

In the primary:
-30% of Ds want Specter back
-70% are not sold
-13% are voting for Sestak
-7% dont like either of them (Toomey votes?)
-50% are undecided
-Specter – 90%+ name recognition
-Sestak – 24% name recognition

What all of this means is… the likely result of a primary being held in the near future would be:
Specter – 46.65%
Sestak – 46.35%
Other – 7%

The other think you must account for is, it is unlikely that 7% of voters will cast write-in votes. Its likely that maybe 3% will, the other 4% will vote for Sestak or Specter, which means the results would be:
Specter – 47.982%
Sestak – 49.018%
Other – 3.000%

Now all of this is assuming that Sestak can get his name recognition into the 70s or 80s, which costs money. Sestak has a healthy war chest, and while it is not on par with Specter’s, raising your own name recognition has nothing to do with how much money your opponent has.

The last thing this poll shows is, the people of PA are not happy with Rendell or Obama. How helpful are those endorsements going to be if 70% of people are unhappy, indifferent or unimpressed with Obama and Rendell?

This race is shaping up to be a lot like the MA Senate race. You have a bad candidate with the backing of the establishment, who is prone to say stupid things (“act like a lady”) and does not have the ability to campaign as vigorously as their opponent. Brown was trailing forever, it was a fools errand… except that he is a Senator now.

Haverford Dem-
What you are cluelessly neglecting is that as more people learn about Sestak they aren’t going to find him as appealing as you do.
People seeing Specter and Sestak together are more likely to form the opinion that Specter is better equipped to take on Toomey.
If people are not happy with Rendell or Obama, Sestak’s not going anywhere. He will not only pick up their negatives, but not benefit from their positives (after dissing them).

I keep running into more people outside of Delco that know Sestak (and his siblings) and have nothing but bad stuff to say about him. At last night’s Philly 9th ward meeting, a committee person I’d never met before said, “Sestak. To know him is to hate him.” That’s a direct quote.

As for MA race… every fool is panicking over it as a game changer, and misinterpreting every result. It wasn’t about Health care. MA has isn’t own universal heathcare system (that Brown voted for). There many be 3 times as many D’s as R’s, but over 50% are registered Independent, swamping both parties. Finally, Coakely would have had to double her efforts to reach the even level of a half-ass campaign.

Bachmann need to stop acting like a b***h. I applaud Specter for calling her out. More Dems should. She’s a birther promoting racism and bigotry.

When I read your posts, I think of the saying: “It is better to keep silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.”

Your posts remove all doubt.

There are not words for just how dumb you are.

First, until you provide names for ‘sources’ I am forced to believe that you are simply the Jason Blair of losers still living in Mom’s and Dad’s basement.

Second, I am not every fool (you are). The MA Senate race is a game changer. You are right, it was not a referendum on health care (you deserve credit for being the ONLY person to know that). It was a referendum on the party of ideas and no action. Democrats in the Senate have done NOTHING. The GOP threatens a filibusterer and we cave. We never make them do it, we never make them vote, we just give them what they want. People are tired of a 59 seat minority, which Specter is a willing and eager participant.

Third, Bachmann is an absolute crackpot. And it would have been great if Specter said so. If he would have said, you can’t vote for prosperity and you are a nut job and a bigot, I would have applauded him. But he didn’t. He said, “act like a lady”. He also said that she was a lady and he would treat her like one if she could act like one. In no way is this anything even close to pointing out that her right wing conspiracy theories are disgusting, instead he showed that he is a sexist pig. His out of date attitude towards women is as equally appalling as Bachmann’s bigotry. Unless you (Dave) think that sexism is ok, but racism isn’t?

“The Jason Blair of losers,” indeed. LOL.

“Sestak. To know him is to hate him.”

Nothing else needs to be said. Everyone I know who has ever met the man says pretty much the same thing. He should take his cue and drop out of the race before he suffers a humiliating defeat.

What HaverfordDemocrat says has some logic, although I’m not a whiz who can absolutely verify those numbers. It is clear that Dave Diano’s mind is made up and nothing will change it. Also 2 or 3 people with vendettas only means that Joe Sestak has done something that has angered a handful of people. It doesn’t forbode a humiliating loss in the primaries, even if it isn’t a huge help. It seems Senator Specter is so highly concerned with keeping his job that he would rather do nothing, than make an enemy or 2 doing something. If Joe isn’t afraid to do something, even at the risk of making a few enemies; that’s better than being so scared of offending people that you don’t get anything done.

Haverford Dem-
“I am not every fool (you are).”
Quick. Call me a medic. I am cut and bleeding from such a sharp retort.

If you are a Haverford Dem committee person, approach me at our next meeting and I’ll be happy to clarify, if you are really interested.

BTW, tonight I was talking to another from the Linder campaign who brought up about Sestak and I got more details. First, early in the campaigns, Sestak held a meeting with all the candidates and promised them $5,000 if they worked their asses off. The Linder campaign busted it’s ass and won. Specter gave the campaign $1,000 early on. Sestak gave them $500 (1/10th of what he promised) and (to quote my source) “too late to make a difference”.
This is the same pattern he used before where he spent all summer promising to help the Delco Dems with a big check. He dangled the hope in front of them and gave them something like $1,200 a few days before the election to help offset the cost of sample ballots. If they didn’t need the money to make rent, they should have told him where to stick the check.

“Act like Lady” is the corresponding form to “Act like Gentleman”. Should we eliminate the welcome “Ladies and Gentleman” as sexist? If you think it’s sexist, then you aren’t much better then Bachmann and the right-wingers using this like 1984 New Speak to redefine the language.

Lefty-
Sorry to contradict your reasoned argument, but statistically, if I can’t go into the heart of liberal Dem Philly without finding vehement Sestak detractors, he’s got problems. I quoted that one person, but there were plenty of others who had negative opinions or other stories. That was just the most memorable quote.
BTW, I flipped a Sestak leaner to Specter with the following argument:
“Imagine if Sestak had been our Senator instead of Specter…. could Sestak have brought Collins and Snowe over for the Stimulus vote and prevented another Great Depression?”

Lefty, Sestak has screwed over so many rank-and-file party members and candidates that word has spread to other committees and insiders. These are the people that drive the GOTV efforts, and work the polls. They aren’t going to lift a finger for Sestak because they know he doesn’t reciprocate.
You wrote:
“If Joe isn’t afraid to do something, even at the risk of making a few enemies”

It’s not that he’s taking a stand worth making enemies. He’s just being a selfish **** to local Dems and giving back nothing in return. Whenever he makes a promise to help, he sets some arbitrary/undefined subjective criteria or condition that he alone evaluates as an excuse to weasel out of a deal. It’s one thing to promise the voters something in a campaign speech and fail to deliver. It’s another thing to enter face-to-face agreements with local party members and repeatedly screw them on the deals.

Here we are a mere 4 months before the primary. Only 29% believe that Specter deserves re-election. A very bad sign for him. However, a whopping 76% still don’t know enough about Joe Sestak. Bizarre.

This election is here for the taking; but Sestak hasn’t done much taking yet. If Sestak doesn’t get it going very soon, Specter is going to win by default (i.e., merely via name recognition). That would be a tragedy. 6 more years of sticking his finger up to see which way the wind is blowing with no principled advocacy.

Joe, it’s yours to win or to lose. Specter can’t do much more than he already has. Where’s your media campaign?

Lee-
Joe doesn’t have the money for a media campaign because his fundraising is drying up. Also, when Joe has done media, it’s always been at the end. Joe almost lost the 2006 election because he delayed too long getting his name out there. Weldon made the misstep of delaying his advertising to define Joe.

Sestak hasn’t spent a dime on advertising since 2006. He boasts about how he didn’t advertise for his 2008 race (clearly saving his pennies for his Senate race).

Lee, Sestak doesn’t even have a campaign manager. His brother and sister run the office.

THE GATEKEEPERS OF THIS WEB SITE DELETED MY COMMENTS ABOUT SPECTER AND TOOMEY VOTING TO REPEAL THE GLASS STEAGALL ACT IN 1999, AN ACTION THAT RUINED OUR BANKING SYSTEM. WHY IS PA2010.C0M AN UNDEMOCRATIC SITE? WHO CONTROLS IT? LET’S HEAR FROM DIANO AND OTHERS ON THIS.

Hey WiseOne,

As editor of pa2010.com, I can personally assure you that no such comment was deleted. I looked back at our comment database and didn’t see it. But we’ve been having a few glitches here and there, and you’re not the first person to encounter this problem.

Nonetheless, my sincerest apologies that it didn’t post.

Open dialogue is critical to us. If you’re ever having trouble getting a comment through, please feel free to e-mail me the body of it at editor@pa2010.com. I’ll be happy to make sure it gets online.

Sorry again.

Dan Hirschhorn