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So who really wins from Knox’s exit?

Everyone’s been trying to spin Tom Knox’s withdrawal from the gubernatorial race in their favor, and understandably so. Joe Hoeffel and Chris Doherty have correctly make the point that there’s one less candidate in the east. Jack Wagner (though I haven’t yet spoken to one of his strategists) will correctly say that Dan Onorato still has to fight for his own base in the west.

But I’ve been thinking about this for a few days, since before Knox’s much anticipated announcement. And frankly, in the current political climate, it’s difficult to see how this is helpful to anyone but Onorato.

Let’s be clear: Hoeffel, Doherty and Wagner all have valid arguments to make. But the primary is less than four months away, and Onorato’s financial advantage is staggering. That edge is even more significant now that he doesn’t have to piss it away in an air-to-air missile fight with a multi-millionaire like Knox, a dynamic that would have allowed either Doherty or Hoeffel some room to creep up in the polls, a la Michael Nutter in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race.

If Hoeffel had a couple million in the bank, things would surely be different. And if his fundraising takes off, it’s certainly not too late. But even with his strong name recognition in the southeast, he’s going to be swamped by a deluge of Onorato for Governor commercials. Ditto for Doherty.

The argument will also be made that Onorato isn’t a southeast candidate, a more conservative Democrat not representative of an area holding 40 percent of the primary electorate. This is true, to a great extent. But the campaign’s entire strategy seems to have been predicated on relocating him in the southeast in every way possible short of actually airlifting his house to downtown Philadelphia. That’s why everywhere you see him in the five-county region, he’s trailed by more operatives than some candidates have on their entire staffs. That’s why the focus of his endorsements have been among prominent southeast Democrats, both liberal and moderate. That’s why millions of dollars are earmarked for TV stations in the southeast, with ads coming courtesy of Neil Oxman, arguably the best media-man the party has in Pennsylvania.

Well-informed sources had told me that Onorato’s camp thought it had a path to victory even if it finished third in Philadelphia—and that was before Knox dropped out. No one laid that path out for me in nitty-gritty detail, but considering his presence on the ground throughout the state (the guy has more political and field directors than I have pairs of pants), it was hard to doubt the contention. Now that Knox is out, it stands to reason the road only gets easier.

Finally, there’s one X-Factor to consider: Ed Rendell. Let’s face it, the governor’s public statements that he’s neutral in the race are pretty much smoke and mirrors at this point. It’s been well-documented that his staunchest supporters and most prolifict fundraisers are with Onorato. At a reception in Rendell’s honor last month in New York, attendees were asked to donate to Onorato. He drops hints to the press here and there to keep us guessing, but they’re getting more transparent as time goes on.

And if the Onorato campaign really thought it would help, it’s a decent bet that Rendell would just come out and say it already. Let’s not forget that, at the moment, the governor is pretty toxic, his approval ratings in the tank. But the only place that isn’t true is in the Philadelphia region, where he pretty much remains a darling of Democratic voters. So as the primary heats up, a key question will be if and when Rendell gets involved. Will he show up at fundraisers? Campaign rallies? Maybe even a quasi-endorsement, crafted in a way to try and minimize Republican efforts to tie Onorato to the incumbent later in the year?

I don’t know where all of this is going. The primary is 115 days away, a life time in politics. But from where we stand right now, Dan Onorato got a big win Friday.

share001btn So who really wins from Knoxs exit?

January 23, 2010 at 3:55 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [9] | post a comment

  1. David Diano

    Jan 22nd, 2010

    Dan-
    Not having to fight Knox over the airwaves is definitely the biggest thing in Onorato’s favor.

    Rendell hasn’t endorsed??
    I guess it was so obvious the Onorato was his man, that it never occurred to Me there hadn’t been an official endorsement.

    Considering how toxic Rendell is, Wagner, Doherty and Hoeffel should form a temporary alliance and pool their resources to piant Onorato as a big-money, in-the-pockets of the special interests guy. Staple him to Rendell and influence peddling, and turn that money into an liability. (like McCain with more houses than he could count).

    Onorato is still a Big unknown. What’s he going to? Spend lots of money proving he’s not a fat cat?

  2. obamarox

    Jan 22nd, 2010

    No, Dan, what is clear is that big money wins again. Where is the surprise that the millionaire backs the toady of other millionaires?

    The Supreme Court desision yesterday further cements the notion that it takes a leader with some intestinal fortitude to stand up to the big money interests. That person is not Ed Rendell and that person is not Dan Onorato. Of course if you have sold out to special interests you will get their money. That may be an advantage for them but how is that an advantage for us?

    Now we have a Supreme Court that says even a U.S. subsidiary of the Chinese government corporation has the right to spend corporate money against indpendent minded candidates. It does not where the money comes from, it has now much more clout than an individual American citizen.

  3. leftylucie

    Jan 22nd, 2010

    I agree with obamarox. How does the Democratic party escape this leash and collar of the corporate Dems? Whatever pennies the workers get, the banksters and white shoe lawyers and Wall Street types rake in millions. Lately, the workers have not even been getting their pennies (unfunded pensions, Ed, remember that eight years of underfunding the workers?) but that hasn’t stopped the big donors from raking it in. This is a bid to control the party by the big money. The question is what does Dan O have to do for all that dough?

  4. David Diano

    Jan 22nd, 2010

    Lot’s of lap dances?

  5. STEELBLITZ1

    Jan 23rd, 2010

    Onoroto will be lucky to win Allegheny against wagner, that said…. hes going to get crushed in the western and central parts of pa by jack… its no reason why they are scared to death for jack wagner to be on the ballot.

  6. homer

    Jan 23rd, 2010

    Something did happen in American because of the Massachusetts election. The White House is in the process of changing its message and is deciding to attack the influence of big money in politics because the public is beginning to believe that President Obama is playing footsie with the connected and the insiders on the stimulus, on health care, on Wall Street, and on the environment. They are obviously aware that this perception could be ruining his Presidency.

    I do not see how Onorato running as the guy of big money and inside deals is actually very smart in this environment. His advisors have to be slower on the uptake than the current Administration.

    Every one of these secret deals and behind the scenes antics reminds people of what has gone on in Harrisburg and Philadelphia for years and what has gone on has not turned out so well for the people or the pols who are now on trial or in jail. Mr. Corbett will have plenty of coverage of those ongoing corruption trials right through this election cycle.

    I do see that the GOP candidate is running as Mr. Clean and Mr. anti-politics as usual. He could not ask for a better storyline to run against than the one that the Onorato camp is spinnng. This could be an enormous year for the GOP because being the party against the status quo in politics is going to pay off big come November. With Onorato representing politics as usual as the face of one party and Corbett as the face of the other, we could see a reversal of all those seats in the suburbs going to Congress.

  7. demdem

    Jan 23rd, 2010

    “I do not see how Onorato running as the guy of big money and inside deals is actually very smart in this environment.”

    Not smart? Regardless of conversations on this website, he’s got seven or eight million (and counting…) more than anyone else in his primary and he’s going to win by a landslide. I don’t like it any more than you do, but it’s a fact.

  8. GOPHAWK

    Jan 23rd, 2010

    Homer, you do not know the half of it!
    Sure, Onorato is Eddie’s boy but he is not Eddie. Ed retains the tattered threads of his popularity in Philadelphia and environs. Ed enjoyed years and years of slavish, adoring coverage from the free media in the city. That paid off more than his advertising when he ran for Governor. Onorato is a different animal. He has extremely high negatives in Allegheny County from his tax hikes on basics like beer, mass transit and parking and his failures as an administrator (I’m talking about spending six hundred million dollars to build a one mile tunnel to serve 900 subway passengers a day). People dislike him most where he is known best. No amount of ad spending is going to warm people up to what they know about this fellow after years in the County Executive chair. The Dems are giving us the West by putting Onorato up.
    They also seem to forget that our prosecutor beat Morganelli in the Philadelphia suburbs just a year and a bit ago and that was even with Ed going all out for Morganelli.
    Ed remains the master puppetmaster but he may have lost his magic touch. Just look at his pick of Arlen and ramrodding almost all Ds out of that race. I mean Toomey has not been doing a thing and he is nearly at 50 percent. You can only imagine what will happen to Onorato come the Fall.
    Good times. Good times.

  9. Ryan

    Jan 26th, 2010

    Morganelli? The ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS AGAINST THAT IDIDOT!!!! Corbett is smoke and mirrors…a talking head, fed info and reports from the staff. He cannot govern and quite frankly- if he is such a great AG, then he should stay on as AG. What makes him think that he has the skills to be an effective governor? Ego and a ton of staf looking for the gravy train.

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