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More thoughts on that 8-year cycle

Very interesting post by Terry Madonna and Michael Young on the so-called “8-year cycle” in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial elections and whether it will hold again. It seems the parties have alternated the governorship on an 8-year basis for 60 years, give or take.  Various theories have been advanced for this—incumbent fatigue, anti-Washington sentiment (most of the elections have gone against the national cycle), and economic trends—but for whatever reason it seems to keep happening.

If it holds, a Republican will win the Governor’s Mansion this year.

There are a lot of reasons to think the pattern might hold this year, but others that it won’t. On the plus side are national politics (it looks like a good Republican year), Rendell fatigue (even people who like him get tired of him after a while), and economic doldrums. There’s also a self-fulfilling aspect: if people think that a pattern will hold, they respond accordingly, so that the prediction tends to come true.

On the negative side are the recent bluish trend in Pennsylvania, especially the suburbs, and the somewhat less than charismatic nature of the principal Republican candidates (though the Democrats don’t do much better here). Internal Republican squabbling must also be taken into account: the state has a pretty strong history of GOP power-brokering, and the “tea party” set may not necessarily follow in line.

The late Lee Atwater described the 1988 presidential election as a clash between the cyclical and the ideological forces in American politics. It’s too bad he won’t be around in Pennsylvania for 2010.

January 4, 2010 at 9:30 am

--Michael Livingston

Tags: Ed Rendell, G. Terry Madonna, Lee Atwater

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