For the record, I don’t watch Foxnews or much Tv at all for that matter. My opinions are based on discussions with friends, family and neighbors — some of wom voted for Obama and regret that they did and are now worried about the country;s future under the Demcorat Congress. They are worried about increasing health insurance costs and want to support Republicans who will seek to repeal the health care plan.

Also, look at the Dem Senate retirements in North Dakota and Connecticut over the past two days. Do you think those two Senators are not reading the writing on the wall?

How about the GOP victories in Virginia and New Jersey for Governor? There were some — probably liberal denialists like you who said New Jersey would never have another Republican Governor. All it took was a good candidate in the form of Christie and growing voter disgust with the Demo controlled Congress and an overreaching Obama.

Please, by all means, keep your head buried in the sand and ignore the coming tsunami. The more liberals like you are in denial, the better chance Republicans have to take back control of the Hosue and make significant gains in the Senate.

I see many more D retirements than GOPers… but perhaps time will tell. Reasonable minds can differ — obstructionist vs. not invited but asked to boot lick, for example. And counter to some leftwing conspiracy theorists, it is not just wishful thinking of *gulp* Fox that believes this is going to be a difficult year for the Ds.

Things are currently bad in DC; the economy simply complicates things. I think the mistake that the Ds in Congress continue to make is to believe that the current voter angst (Prez Carter might call it malaise) is driven solely by the bad economy. In relatively good economic times there was never any overwhelming support for the healthcare reforms included in the current bill, for card check, for the carbon tax… The angst comes from the fact that in spite of the economy, Congress pushes ahead with these silly proposals as if a crisis is a horrible thing to waste.

But again, you and I can respectfully differ. We won’t know until November anyhow. For my part of armchair punditry, I predict substantial GOP gains, not quite on par with ’94 but similar to ’78.

Cheers.

Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. The GOP has a lot of congressional retirements and open seats as well.

The RNC and NRCC coffers are very low, and the Democrats have much better cash flow. The tea-party is showing a lot of cracks, factions and in fighting.

Getting the stimulus passed, health care passed, etc. Obama will have no problem showing he’s a leader. The lack of bi-partisanship is NOT an indicator of Obama’s leadership. It’s the GOP that has refused to participate, and put the politics of obstruction over everything else.

Obama has his state of the Union address in a few weeks. While he will candidly list the challenges still before us, he will will have an impressive list of changes for a first-year President. Despite some secrecy still in place, the government is FAR more open than it was under Bush/Cheney.

The biggest thing is that the economy is no longer in free-fall an imminent danger of collapse.

The danger to Dems is if they accept the GOP talking points and back away from their progressive agenda.

Stosh is right. Check in with Dem consultant Doug Schoen. He said he is “[s]cared to death of the tsunami that is almost certainly coming.” He predicts that the Ds could lose the House based on certain losses from Bluedogs, open seats and traditional D seats in the South. Why does Schoen think this? He says failure in Congress and more importantly failure of the President to lead. “Obama, at the very least, lacks coattails,” Schoen says.

No need to resort to victimhood at the hands of the vast FoxNews conspiracy… There is a strong undercurrent that has been causing flocks of D retirements not unlike ’94. This year could be different because the D bench appears to be deeper, but time will tell. The undercurrent, by the way, is fueled not just by the angst at Ds in Washington, it is also focused at Rs. It is no surprise therefore, that the tea party movement, were it a party, is more popular than either party.

[As a caveat, I am an R who empathizes with the angst toward the beltway, but am not a tea party participant.]

Lentz raised (and spend) about the same amounts as Meehan the previous quarter. If he has now raised $300,000, for a total of just over $450,000 cash on hand –>> then he spend about $50,000 this most recent quarter.

It will be interesting to see how they have spent their money.

Stosh-
You need to spend less time listen to the crazy tea-party people and FoxNews trying to demonize Reed and Pelosi. They are fixing a decade of Republican problems.
Getting reforms through successfully will motivate the Democratic based that voted for these long needed reforms.
The GOP knows this and is being obstructionists to deny the Dems “success” on their promises. Failure by Reed, Pelosi and the Democrats will hurt them more than success on these issues (contrary to the GOP spin).

Michael-
At this point in Sestak’s 2006 campaign, he had ZERO cash on hand, and Weldon had $266,000.

The relevant differences are as follows:
1) Meehan is not a 20 year Congressional incumbent.

2) Meehan has cash on hand, but hasn’t spent on infrastructure (and so far is relying on the Delco GOP infrastructure, which does not extend into Chester or Montco).

3) Meehan’s last time on the ballot was a cakewalk for Delco DA. He’s never been tested in a real competitive campaign.

4) More people know who Lentz is than knew Sestak, and fewer people know Meehan than Weldon.

5) There is a higher percentage of Dem voters in the 7th district.

6) The Dems have tasted victory for this race, and aren’t going to give it up without a fight, because they know it’s winnable.

7) Lentz has proven himself enough of a fundraiser to get DCCC backing, that Sestak had to wait longer for.

Lentz is more than $100,000 ahead of where Sestak was at the end of March AND Lentz has infrastructure.

9) Lentz is a decent, honorable guy who will work with other candidates cooperatively.

10) Sestak had former President Clinton come in for very public fundraiser. Meehan was appointed by Bush and I can’t see Meehan wanting a picture with Bush. Lentz has a shot of having Obama.

There will be so much free publicity on this race, that it’s not going to come down to money, as long as Lentz can raise over $2 million to get his message out. Beyond that, the money is really just wasted with diminishing bang-for-the-buck.
This is going to come down to the candidates, and in a side-by-side comparison, Lentz can beat Meehan. It will be tough, but it is far more doable than Sestak’s win was.

(since no fundraising totals are available for Conner and Touey, I’ve left them out of the discussion)

“Meehan Raises Over $580,000 in Race for Sestak’s Seat

By Shira Toeplitz | January 5, 2010 11:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R) will report raising $580,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to his campaign. That’s a mighty sum for the first-time Congressional candidate, who Republicans lured from a crowded gubernatorial field this summer to run for Rep. Joe Sestak’s (D-Pa.) suburban Philadelphia seat. Sestak is running for Senate.

Meehan’s campaign did not release a cash on hand total, but said the likely Republican nominee in the southeastern Pennsylvania district has brought in $790,00 since he announced his bid in mid-September.

“These fundraising figures are a reflection of local residents’ dissatisfaction with the direction Congress is taking our country and growing support for my efforts to restore integrity and accountability to Washington,” Meehan said in a statement.

Several Democrats have also announced bids for Sestak’s seats, including state Rep. Bryan Lentz (D), environmental consultant Gail Connor and political consultant E. Teresa Touey. A spokesman for Lentz, the leading candidate in the Democratic primary, did not immediately return a request for comment on his quarterly fundraising totals.

CQ Politics currently rates this general election contest as a Tossup.

UPDATE: A spokesman for Lentz’s campaign came back with a rough estimate of the campaign’s fundraising in the 4th quarter: Lentz will report raising close to $300,000 in the last three months of 2009, giving him a grand total of more than $500,000 for the campaign so far and $450,000 cash on hand.

Also, a Meehan spokesman said that the campaign currently has $695,000 cash on hand.”

Looks like Mike Steel doesn’t belive that you can do it.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/04/gop_retirements_mounts_in_the_house.html

You have more seats to fill

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/05/can_house_republicans_overcome_their_money_problems.html

Tea baggers are not giving them the small donations that they need.