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ANALYSIS: Gerlach’s exit simplifies Lt. Gov. primary

In many ways, the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor has only one voter that matters: Tom Corbett.

Jim Gerlach’s exit from the gubernatorial race last week made Corbett, the state Attorney General, the GOP’s presumptive nominee. And with that, the contest to join Corbett on a party ticket has become much simpler to understand. Before, Corbett faced a genuinely competitive primary and had every reason to wait and watch while those vying to be his running mate slugged it out themselves. Now, Corbett has the luxury of being able to think ahead to November.

Politically, the only jobs of the Lt. Gov. nominee are to campaign non-stop for the ticket and avoid being a distraction. Before last week, getting that job—a process that has always depended more on the whims of insiders than on regular voters—entailed intense courtship of the Republican State Committee members who have the power to endorse a candidate at their meeting next month. Now, candidates and operatives agreed in interviews, convincing Corbett that they’re the best candidate is paramount.

“It allows Corbett to weigh in on his choice,” said one southeast Republican familiar with the race. Like others interviewed for this article, he spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid alienating Corbett and state committee members.

“I know his concern before was that, if he had a primary, he didn’t want to make a pick for Lt. Gov. at the risk of offending those who weren’t picked,” this Republican added.  “Now, if he says who he wants, [state committee members will] support that. It’s his call to make if he decides to make it.”

Added another Republican close to a Lt. Gov. campaign: “If Corbett wants it, he gets it. It’s never gone down any differently.”

Corbett’s increased power in this race also effectively reduces the impact of straw votes being held by regional party caucuses over the next month, the first of which was conducted last weekend by the GOP’s central caucus. Corbett can look at the results of those non-binding votes to gauge which candidates have the most support in certain areas of the state, but in the end, Republicans say, he’ll be able to sway state committee members whichever way he wants come endorsement time next month.

For its part, Corbett’s campaign seems content to sit back and let the process play out, and least a little bit longer. Interviewed last month, Corbett said he wouldn’t “put that cart before the horse.” Last week, campaign manager Brian Nutt echoed that sentiment.

“It’s still premature,” Nutt said. “We need to let this process work out a little bit beforte he does anything.”

But for the candidate seeking a spot on the ticket, the strategic outlook has already changed. Whereas their focus before was split between courting Corbett and lobbying state committee members, now they can focus much of their attention on trying to convince Corbett of their political value.

“Candidates need to show Tom Corbett the value they bring to the ticket,” one Lt. Gov. candidate said. “What really matters here is who adds the most value to the ticket, and I think Tom will make his decision the same way.

“I think he’s approaching this with an open mind,” the candidate added. “He wants to see what the will of the people of the caucuses are.”

Though there remains about a dozen candidates, knowledgeable party insiders say the list of true contenders has been boiled to three Republicans from the southeast, where the Pittsburgh-based Corbett will look for geographic balance: Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele, Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley and political operative Joe Watkins. In considering these three candidates, the most important of the caucus straw votes may have been the central caucus vote last weekend, where the committee members are traditionally more conservative and independent-minded. Local candidates Chet Beiler and Nick DiFrancesco split the bulk of the votes, but Watkins led the southeast candidates with 16 votes, compared to 13 for Cawley and four for Aichele. The lesson for Corbett? Watkins and Cawley may be more acceptable to the party’s conservative wing.

Still to vote are regional caucuses in the southeast, northeast, southwest and northwest, as well as a regional caucus that stretches around the southeast and includes parts of the Lehigh Valley and Schuylkill County.

In some Republicans’ minds, Corbett could effectively end the race today if he wanted to. But with his decision to stay behind the scenes for now, candidates will need to continue to strike a balance between their courtship of Corbett and other party insiders. About half-a-dozen Lt. Gov. hopefuls showed up at Corbett’s reception during the Pennsylvania Society weekend last month, but if Corbett continues to look to results of the caucus votes, there’s more grassroots work to be done.

“It’s always a balance between pleasing state committee people and pleasing Corbett,” one Republican said. “But it’s reciprocal. The more committee people you please, it filters up to Corbett, and then the decision will filter back down from Corbett.”

Another Lt. Gov. candidate lauded Corbett for keeping the process open.

“I think that Tom and the campaign are wisely allowing our party’s leadership to have a significant say in who’s going to be the number two,” he said. “At least for the foreseeable future, I don’t see them changing their policy of anointing anyone as a Lt. Gov. candidate.”

That may be true for now, but come the state committee meeting in mid-February, all bets are off, and focus will turn back to the primary constituency of one, Tom Corbett.

January 11, 2010 at 1:52 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Carol Aichele, Jim Cawley, Joe Watkins, Lt. Gov., Tom Corbett

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