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Aichele claims massive edge in internal poll

Aichele claims massive edge in internal poll

Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele released an internal poll memo Wednesday that showed her enjoying blowout-size approval ratings compared to her Republican rivals for Lieutenant Governor, but a review of the survey’s details makes it clear that the methodology was tilted in her favor.

The survey, conducted by the GOP firm Susquehanna Polling & Research on Aichele’s behalf, polled a wide swath of Republicans, Democrats and independents, in what was a bid by the Aichele campaign to showcase her bipartisan appeal on a general election ticket. In the poll, 49 percent of respondents favored Aichele over other candidates, more than four times the support enjoyed by any other candidate. Former Lancaster GOP chairman Chet Beiler had 12 percent, Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley had nine percent and political operative and pastor Joe Watkins had seven percent.

Aichele shared a three-page poll memo with supporters Wednesday afternoon, quoting Susquehanna pollster James Lee as saying she is “the best choice to run as a team with the Republican nominee for governor in November” and “the best candidate to help the GOP nominee for governor shore up support with critical ‘swing’ voters and those who say they are still undecided in the governor’s race.”

The poll memo sent to supporters in an e-mail did not include details of the biographical sketches of the candidates provided to survey respondents. A fuller poll memo obtained by pa2010.com indicates that Aichele was described as “the only candidate with a diverse background as a former teacher, small business person and as someone who grew up on a family farm.”

The survey of 700 likely general election voters, which had a margin of error of 3.7 percent, also prefaced questions about the candidates with biographical setups alluding to Aichele’s record in government service.

Along with Cawley and Watkins, Aichele is seen as one of the leading candidates to join presumptive gubernatorial nominee Tom Corbett on a GOP ticket. Since Cawley was endorsed by southeast Republican leaders earlier this month, Aichele has been looking to make up ground amongst insiders. She asked supporters to “pass this information along to your friends and fellow party leaders so that they too can see why I am the best choice for Lieutenant Governor.”

The poll also showed Corbett topping Democrat Dan Onorato 44 percent to 28 percent in a potential general election matchup, with a quarter of voters undecided.

Click here to see the poll memo e-mailed to Aichele supporters.

Click here to see the full poll memo.

share001btn Aichele claims massive edge in internal poll

January 27, 2010 at 11:10 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [55] | post a comment

  1. Tim from the T

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Her record clearly makes her attractive to Independents and Democrats.

  2. Hmmm....

    Jan 27th, 2010

    I wonder if the pollster realized spelled her name incorrectly in a spot. Nitpicking a bit, but looked rushed and pushed.

  3. Chesco Mike

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Lots of good candidates in the race. No doubt that Commissioner Aichele helps with swing voters better than the others.

  4. Anonymous

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Great resume, can she get it done on the stump?? Can she bring home the base and fire up indy’s???

  5. To Anonymous

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Yes, Carol can bring home the base and fire up independents. She has lead the ticket every single time for her county elections.

  6. Jr. Jimmy

    Jan 27th, 2010

    For the real Jim Cawley, check this out: http://jrjim.blogspot.com/

  7. Main Line Mary

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Yes, Carol Aichele is exactly the kind of candidate who will help Republicans in the fall. Look at how well all of the Republican women who ran for state-wide judicial spots did last November.

    Qualified women candidates have the edge in elections…we need more of them in the GOP!

  8. lauren

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Jim Cawley speaks as the Master of Ceremonies of a Tea Party on Independence Day in Philadelphia

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5YBL3NX1lw

  9. To Lauren

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Jim Cawley speaks…as a puppet of the Philly Unions

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMLZJQpJAUM

  10. ...and then

    Jan 27th, 2010

    ….there’s a guy who worked for a President, started successful businesses, runs a church AND took on the Liberal media face to face, now he wants to use his experiences to lead and govern….

    Some real sharp kids got clips of him in action…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rILS6MjGhE

  11. Michael

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Can you say push poll…what a massive waste of money. She is better than Cawley but man her political instincts are pretty rotten. What is up with these guys? The recent behavior makes them hard to like. The other day Cawley is arrogantly laughing because people want a voice in the process and do not want the “powers that be” to be deciding who the nominee is and now she is polling for job…maybe we should call her Bill Clinton?

  12. lauren

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Dear “To Lauren”, aka Anonymous,

    Anyone can produce sleek videos with enough money, but being out there, engaged and active in the community is what matters. Making a difference in people’s lives everyday is the difference. Obama was packaged well and look what America got. The last thing we need. People want what is real not bought and paid for. Jim is a responsive member of the community with experience and is prepared. He is also not choosing to smear any other candidates as he is being smeared and distorted anonymously. Cawley is now.

  13. Blah Blah

    Jan 27th, 2010

    Um, didn’t Carol Aichele lose a recent State House or Senate seat in Chester County? If she can’t appeal to her homebase, does she really expect people to beleive she is appealing statewide.

    Besides, I suspect were Jim Cawley to be doing this, he would be highlighting his experience as a Vice President of community relations for the Boy Scouts. And Carol’s spot in an opponent’s poll might describe her as best known as the wife of Steve Aichele, the head of Saul Ewing, a politically connected law firm. Its all how the questions are spun.

  14. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Carol Aichele’s husband Steve is Jim Cawley’s boss. That’s right, Cawley isn’t getting enough work/money from sucking on the government teat, he also works for Saul Ewing.

    Sleek videos? They don’t look slick (I think that’s the word you were searching for) they are merely the audio from county meetings where Cawley is heard defending the unions and ‘dissing citizens. Stop shooting the messenger and listen to the message. Cawley is bad for PA. You can have him in Bucks if you want.

  15. Nick

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Hahahaha I got this call. It was a total push poll. Bios were totally out of whack. I knew it was Aichele after about 2 questions – it was THAT obvious.

    As with all polls, particularly “internal” ones (miraculously shared with the press), take this one with a grain (or truck load) of salt.

  16. Poll Watcher

    Jan 28th, 2010

    She should be spending her money on polling state committee. The only one who has less traction then her is Watkins. The length these two will go is pretty sad.

  17. Toast

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Cawley is toast.

  18. Pensatucky Paul

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Why was there no mention of the only true outsider in the race Steve Johnson? small business owner, soldier, eagle scout, NOT A POLITICIAN!!!!!

    Steve Johnson Fires Up the Tea Party in Berks County
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnZ26Z09vLY

  19. Sarah

    Jan 28th, 2010

    The SE is a disaster. The felon Bob Asher is pushing Cawley so he can keep steering business to his lobbying activities. Then Cawley can make sure that all the traditional leaders in the SE are getting appointments to SEPTA, the state’s bond business, and the continue to take advantage of state government contracts. We need to keep these folks from wasting our tax dollars.

    We need to open our eyes! At least Chester County’s chairman stood up to the other party bosses and gave Carol the votes in the “Straw Vote”. Go Skip!

  20. What Kins

    Jan 28th, 2010

    I love how those Joe Watkins videos are supposedly done by “real sharp kids” but if you do just a little digging its plain to see its a professional company called Black Sheep / Ace Productions

    and com on! Gossiping and sniping about what Nixon and Chairman Mao did 40 years ago has what exactly to do with the economic problems facing PA today?

    Joe, stick to the boob tube…

  21. Toast of the Town

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Cawley is the cream of the crop. The Toast of the Town if you will. Aichele is aching, Watkins is watching, Beiler is bailing, Rizzo is ruined, Johnson is jammed up, Kennedy is Kaput, Difrancesco is done, Pepper is painful, Russ Diamond has it rough and Urban is unlikely. That is my poetic take on the LG Race.

  22. Pensatucky Paul

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Cawley is TOAST all right haha. Well said.

  23. ....and then

    Jan 28th, 2010

    …..in the West working diligently and while all others are asleep:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkXfa6D6Rm8

  24. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    No – ‘all others’ were not sleeping!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59YTqzh114Y

  25. megand1776

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Why is always joe watkins driving past the tea party patriotsin his videos and not stopping to join them? glad you could wave from your motorcade, limousine rino watkins!!!

  26. lauren

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Dear ItTruDat,

    Cawley did not vote for the Union contract. Your misleading interpretation of the audio is a complete distortion. We know who you are against. Who are you for?

  27. lauren

    Jan 28th, 2010

    “ItTruDat – No ‘all others’ were not sleeping”:

    Once again you distort Cawley’s record manipulating segments of audio. I listened to the full audio. Cawley was talking about money the county spent to purchase voting machines under the HAVA Act and was being reimbursed. Cawley is a solid fiscal conservative.

  28. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @Lauren…read the Union Lover again.

    Let’s examine it:
    Cawley takes thousand and thousands of union money. Why would they give him money Lauren unless they were getting something back?
    Cawley negotiates and publicly DEFENDS the union loving contract which forces people to join union, doesn’t permit union members to quit the union and HERE’s the best part – makes the taxpayers collect union political action committee contributions!

    Then Cawley waits until the other two commissioners vote YES for the contract before deciding what to vote? Give me a break.

    Taking money from the Feds? Sorry but Cawley didn’t put any restrictions on his comment and in FACT it was ANY TIME and it was FOR THE RECORD!!

    “For the record,” Cawley said, “any time the federal government wants to give us money, I will take it.”

    Conservative? Nope. Sorry but Cawley REFUSED the label conservative and said he was ‘progressive’

    Why are you/he lying now that he’s running for state-wide office?!?

  29. Anonymous

    Jan 28th, 2010

    To Megand1776,

    You can do better than that. Watkins stands with Conservatives. has for years. If you knew his history you’d know that. When people don’t know a persons story and don’t like what they THINK they know, they tend to revert to name calling. States and countries don’t get built that way.

    Try harder, know the man, then make a decision, because calling him “Limosine RINO Watkins” is 5th grade ridiculous and that’s an insult to 5th graders…

  30. lauren

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @ItTrueDat

    Knowing the truth and reading your spin makes me want to take a shower. This is bad politics and what keeps good people away from it. With the clearly socialist policies and overwhelming taxation Americans are facing and fighting, the party needs to come together and work together. You never answered who you are for??? Tell that “truth”.

  31. James

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Jimmy Lee has lost all credibility.

  32. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @Lauren – Cawley can’t run away from his liberal record. LOOK at the FACTS presented on JrJim.BlogSpot.com BIG spender. Borrowed MILLIONS so he doesn’t have to raise taxes while running for office? give me a break. LOOK how he raised spending during this time and was OVER budget by 25+ million some years! How do you spend over budget by 25 million and call yourself conservative.

    Can you answer why does he use Jr on voter registration but in real life uses IV?! What is up with that?

    Working for? As a patriot, I am working for my children and their children to protect them from phonies like Cawley.

    Why are you pushing a guy who is not who you say he is the better question?

  33. 95 South

    Jan 28th, 2010

    The only good thing to come out of Chester County is Mushrooms, and we all know what mushrooms grow in.

  34. Republican statecommitteewoman from the SE

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Cawley is a liberal who supports abortion, I will not support him, despite what my chairman said…I did not vote in any straw poll.

  35. The Fact Checker

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @Republican Statecommitteewoman from the SE: You are a liar. Cawley is not an abortion supporter.

  36. lauren

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @ItTruDat

    You believe your own press releases, in this case, CHARTS and GRAPHS and they are just NOT TRUE and completely fabricated.

    The County has not been borrowing money to balance the budget. There has been no tax increase in 4 years in Bucks. Bucks County enjoys its highest bond rating ever. The County reserve fund has grown under Cawley’s leadership has grown.

    This is a guy that led a delagation to a sister city in Korea representing Bucks County and paid for his own trip.

    I believe you are a patriot, but I suggest you look at the facts and not repeat or create fabrication. Cawley is a pro-life conservative despite anyone who may have anything to gain in this process that may paint him otherwise. One week of smears does not eliminate a lifetime of commitment and contribution to the community, including pro-life marches.

    Cawley is a good and decent man that happens to be leading at the moment. Smearing and lying is what keeps good people out of politics. We want to keep Jim in.

    By the way, I didn’t ask who you were working for, I asked who you are for, but your response is very telling.

  37. To the Fact Checker

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Check out this article form the Morning Call. He supports the funding of Planned Parenthood. Having him as our L.G. candidate is scary.

    http://charlesmeredith.com/MC05archives/MC%2002-16-05%20Jim%20Cawley.htm

  38. Liz

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Cawley is a Progressive.

    Is that a suburban community organizer?

  39. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @Lauren – I sincerely believe you think that Cawley is a conservative. I beg you to set aside your bias for your friend and look honestly at the DOCUMENTED facts. The spending information was obtained primarily from the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) that the Bucks County Controllers office is required to prepare and submit a copy to the Commonwealth. It’s standardize and contains statistical data over a 10 year period as well as the current financial condition.

    Here is the larger version of the chart:
    http://tinyurl.com/y8jju9b

    The chart is taken from the most recent CAFR. You can see that Cawley has sky-rocketed spending by increasing – outstripping inflation.

    He brags about not raising taxes. The piper is going to be paid Lauren! How can he spend and spend and not raise taxes? Simple – borrow $

    Here is the debt chart – also created with data from the most recent CAFR

    http://tinyurl.com/yboh8oc

    Finally, Cawley spent more than budgeted. Look at the worse year 2008. Cawley spent more than 27 million more than he budgeted! That’s not a conservative.

    http://tinyurl.com/y9k9dwd

    Facts have been checked, than checked and then checked to ensure that they are accurate and reflect.

    I am very confident that if you would look at Bucks County CAFR you would find that data to be right on!

    Sorry to shatter your illusion of Jim.

  40. Fact Checker

    Jan 28th, 2010

    He said he would talk with them in the article. You guys are drinking the Watkins flavored Kool Aid.

  41. ItTrueDat

    Jan 28th, 2010

    @Lauren Who am I for? If you understand and follow the political process, you know that by the time that us little voters go into the polling booth – our chooses have been narrowed greatly.

    (that’s why I didn’t even bother watching the presidential primary stuff because by the time PA voted? What’s the point in wasting my time? I voted for Ron Paul if you’d like to know)

    Until Cawley became the front runner, I never heard his name. Upon looking further – YIKES! Someone else posted the Planned Parenthood article. That interview ALONE is enough for me to reject him. 1) he progressive – not conservative 2) Would even sit and talk with abortion providers!

    He has NEVER had a REAL job. How can he know what the average Pennsylvanian is experiencing?

  42. Hmmm...

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Yo Fact Checker,

    Ahving a debate regarding another candidate and taking a shot at another hints at distress on your part….2 front wars are hard. Try these Facts:

    1. State Committee members wanted to vote for a candidate and could not in a STRAW POLL in a certain Caucus…

    2. The West has already begun to make a decision with the County Chair of Westmoreland County making his: http://www.watkins2010.com

    3. There is no such thing as Watkins Flavored Kool Aid. Name calling is a sign that someone is devoid of facts or an argument.

  43. Building a Better U.S.A.

    Jan 28th, 2010

    Steve Johnson is the best candidate for Lt. Governor, hands down. He is the Voice of The People and has all the experience he needs to represent us in PA. His experience fighting for us in the military, building a business in PA, dealing with budgets, creating jobs, raising a family, attending PA universities, understanding of the issues important to Pennsylvanians and HIS PASSION FOR OUR GREAT STATE AND OUR COUNTRY is second to none. This is a real PA grown leader and I, for one, appreciate his stepping up to run for office because of his concern for where this country is going. WE NEED MORE STEVE JOHNSONS!

  44. megand1776

    Jan 29th, 2010

    Dear Anonymous, again, why is Joe Watkins always driving past the Tea Party Patriotsin his videos and not stopping to join them?

  45. Anonymous

    Jan 29th, 2010

    My guess…. He was going to an event to run for Lt. Gov….got to believe you are the only one who can’t see the logic here. It’s not hard.

    Why is it that Tea Party people are going after Sarah Palin now because she has her own mind?? Can’t she have one??

    Feed the tiger red meat, it always wants more, what happens when you run out of red meat…the tiger eats you…

  46. SEPA Nugget

    Jan 29th, 2010

    Steve Johnson is a very good man who could not even win his own Straw Poll in his back yard of Central Caucus. Watkins could’nt either. Cawley won under seriously dubious circumstances….

    Maybe we should just have an open primary for LG and see who comes out on top…

  47. Anonymous

    Jan 29th, 2010

    To Megan1776,

    Just saw your Johnson video. You’ve chosen sides. Still tearing people down I see.

    You’ll impress the rest of us if you can discuss what someone is FOR and a good reason to vote FOR them besides “Being one of US” and “Same Ole Song and Dance” and the other candidates are some 5th grade name you pull out of a hat.

    Remember, we’re voting for someone who can govern, not for Popularity King. Nice video, but you can do better by Mr. Johnson. Show us how he’ll lead and govern.

  48. megand1776

    Jan 29th, 2010

    Yeah, its nice when people are transparent and not afraid to show their true colors and stand up for what they believe in instead of hiding behing names like ‘Anonymous’ and sniping around on blogs…

  49. Anonymous

    Jan 29th, 2010

    To Megand1776,

    No fear here. Not hiding either. Besides, we both have an opinion and the candidates are the ones that matter most here, not our back and forth to each other.

    I actually respect your candidate. I have no name to call him but citizen, soldier, businessman, family man, and Mr. Johnson. I just have the opinion that he is not ready to govern, in my book.

    I’ve meet Mr. Johnson on a number of occassions, had long conversations with him. Know him to be sincere, a straight shooter. Have you met Mr. Watkins long enough to be able to say confidently that he’s a Limousine RINO?? What kind of disrespect is that and not have met the man? Have you…..met the man?? I have met Joe Watkins, more than once, talked to him at length. In my opinion he will be the next Lt. Gov.

    I’ve met Steve Johnson, he will not be Lt. Gov in MY opinion. I COULD be wrong, but it’s based on conversations I’ve come away with. But each time I’ve left with respect for the man. My opinion is not based on some video I’ve seen….

  50. megand1776

    Jan 30th, 2010

    I used to work for Joe Watkins

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