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3 reasons why the Massacusetts race matters here

Almost the entire political class was shaking its head earlier this week at the thought that a Republican could win the U.S. Senate seat long held by the late Ted Kennedy. But now that Scott Brown has actually won the seat for the GOP, the conversation shifts to what it means for the looming mid-term elections.

Here are three reasons—in no particular order—why the results in Massachusetts are important to the political climate in Pennsylvania.

If it can happen there, it can happen anywhere.

This is the panicked refrain being echoed by Democrats across the country, and it rings particularly true in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania is a place where Democrats have made extraordinary gains over the last decade, a so-called swing state that the party hoped would soon be more “New-Jersey-Blue” than “Ohio-Purple.” But if Republicans can win statewide in Massachusetts, seemingly the most liberal of states, there’s no reason not to believe they can’t do the same here. Visions of simultaneous Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey victories in November surely kept some Democrats awake late Tuesday night.

Health care reform is starting to look like a lose-lose

There’s still time for Democrats to pass a health care reform bill before they lose their 60th vote, and it’s not impossible that they could even pull it off after Scott Brown is seated. And there’s still time to sell it to a skeptical public. But politically, the heavy-lift of health care is starting to seem like it has no upside. Most Democratic insiders agree that not passing something would be disastrous, akin to when a reform effort died under President Clinton and Republicans took control of Congress. But even if it passes, one exit poll taken in Massachusetts makes clear that even some left-leaning voters aren’t necessarily buying it. And Republicans, it seems, can run against the legislation regardless of what happens.

Liberal Democrats seem disillusioned

It was massive enthusiasm for Barack Obama—and the voter turnout that came with it—that was the driving force behind the Democratic sweep of 2008. But now, the tables appear to be turned. It’s conservatives who are mobilized, and many Democrats who supported Obama would just as soon stay home as trek to their local polling place. A Research 2000 poll showed that many pro-Obama Democrats in Massachusetts either voted Republican or stayed home because they think the president hasn’t done enough to move away from the policies of the Bush administration. In other words, Obama is now definitely being squeezed on both sides, by conservatives and independents who think he’s doing too much, and by liberals who think he’s not doing enough.

January 20, 2010 at 1:13 pm

--pa2010.com Staff

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