Dan-
Trailing by 13 points with 14% undecided isn’t exactly what I would call a “path” to victory.

I agree that Rasmussen has been pretty unreliable, and an outlier, promoting Sestak (apparently to hurt Specter). This poll is more inline with the better pollsters.

There are two reasonable conclusions to draw:
1) Rasmussen finally conducted an honest poll.
2) Rasmussen is still an outlier and Sestak will be shown trailing by 22 points in the other polls

This is VERY telling result of this poll:

“Specter currently leads by 20 points among female primary voters. Male voters are almost evenly divided between the two candidates. Voters 50 and older prefer Specter more than those who are younger.”

Sestak was likely counting on his youth, his looks and the Anita Hill issue to capture female voters. Well, that’s not working.

The older people vote in higher percentages than younger people. Sure, the young people helped tip the scales and came out for Obama, who connected with them. Sestak “youth appeal” seems limited to mostly high school kids who don’t know any better.

The VERY favorable numbers are also interesting:
“Twenty-six percent (26%) of likely Democratic Primary voters have a very favorable view of Specter, while 12% regard him very unfavorably. That’s a drop in both numbers from October.
Sestak is seen very favorably by 16% and very unfavorably by just three percent (3%). ”

Sestak’s vote against single-payer and Specter taking hits in those health care forums seems to have paid off:
“Specter, who has pledged to vote in favor of the proposed health care reform, leads Sestak by 11 points among those who are insured. He leads by a two-to-one margin (56% to 28%) among those who are not insured. ”

Wow!!

I can’t wait to see the Quinnipac poll.

Thanks, Dan, you made my day!

I must say, I am highly skeptical of Rasmussen polls in this race, since they have been (a) all over the place and (b) not consistent with the rest of the polls out there. I am anxious to see what other numbers in this race will be in corresponding polls in the coming weeks. That said, Dan is right that these numbers are heartening for Sestak — they certainly put him within striking distance of Specter, and indicate that his name recognition and popularity amongst Democrats is growing.

If David is right, then this poll is great news for Toomey. But I don’t think David is right.

I agree with Adam on Rasmussen in this race being all over the place.

One interesting bit from the Rasmussen write-up – apparently uninsured Democrats favor Specter 2-1 (58%-28%). Think there’s anything to that?

Looking forward to a more thorough look at the poll.

Adam-
Within Rasmussen Sestak has fallen back, not closed the gap. 13 points may be “striking distance”, but it’s more disheartening, because Sestak’s not showing any traction.

Sestak has lost momentum. First with his drawn out, anti-climatic “announcement(s)” of running for Senate. Second, Specter has been solidifying his Dem bonafides. Even on the Daily Kos, Specter’s been getting increased praise for his strong stances on health care and abortion rights.
Specter breaking with Obama on the surge, shattered the image Sestak’s been trying to cast of Specter as a puppet of Obama. Specter totally outflanked him on the left, but without losing the middle either. It’s like watching Mozart compete with an organ grinder’s monkey.

Sestak seems like he just wants to be loved. Specter doesn’t care if you love him, but rather that you want someone tough as nails representing your state.

There are three more weeks until the end of the fundraising quarter. It will be tough competing with Christmas dollars.

David Diano,

Do you get paid by Specter to spend hours each day on this site promoting such a pathetic and out of touch candidate? I’ve never seen someone prostitute themselves so readily for a hack like Specter. Where does your love affair with him come from?

The margin of error on this substandard size telephone poll is plus or minus five. This is the same margin of error on all previous Ras polls. These numbers, therefore, fall in the range of numbers for AS and JS that Ras has offered up in all of his polls since July.

AS is ahead by some margin but below fifty percent. We will see whether primary voters want to install an 80 year old convert to the church for another six years in the pulpit.

One other factual note. When he came within a heartbeat of losing to Pat Toomey in the GOP primary in 2004, at this point in time (Dec.), AS was at 65% and Toomey at 25%.

Sestak is against single payer and for the…. that’s made up my decision for me i must say. I think sestak should get out of the race soon because toomey is warchesting.

“for the afghan troop surge”, i meant to say

The essential assumption of Rep. Sestak’s campaign seems to be:

People who are exposed to Sestak via media or in person will be more inclined to support him, rather than less inclined.

Hence the frequent focus on the fact that Sestak being widely unknown gives him “room to grow.”

Specter is not for single payer. He’s stated time and again he was against the Clinton plan because it was single payer. “On the table” is typical Specter-speak for avoiding giving a real opinion. Ever get an email response from him? You’d be hard pressed to find a real answer anywhere in them.

Heads up. Toomey trouncing AS and JS in the latest Ras poll. Gov. Ed is sinking faster than the Titanic.

The big question remains — Will Rep. Sestak have enough money to compete in TV time with Sen. Specter?

Steve (with no last name)-
It’s not that I think Specter is the greatest thing since sliced bread. It’s that based upon my experience in the 7th district, Sestak doesn’t belong in public office and that Specter can get more done for PA than Sestak.
Toomey is to the Right of Santorum and Specter is the best shot we have to stop him.
Specter is merely the best choice among bad choices.

Steelblitz-
Toomey is building his warchest and Sestak is going to waste millions of dollars in a primary, that can’t be used to fight Toomey, and will leave the Dem winner weaker.

KG-
Exactly Sestak’s strategy. I like to describe it as they expect voters to fall to their knees in worship when they see hear about his 3-stars.

Kevin-
The health care plans (and health care costs/problems) of the Clinton era are very different than today. The solutions are different and their is more public support. Sestak actually voted against STATES being allowed to do their own single-payer systems. Specter’s position is that single-payer should be on the table for a vote (not that he would vote for it, but that it at least get a proper hearing and vote).

GOPHawk-
Rasmussen’s had Toomey ahead of both Specter and Sestak before. I think Rasmussen shows a lot of conservative bias, so I don’t put must stock in it. Most of the polls for 2010 races track with the President’s approval rating. If Obama climbs back up with jobs and economy, Specter/Sestak will rise against Toomey. It’s going to be a tough year for Dems, but Toomey is an extreme right-winger and I think the numbers will shift as that gets exposed.

Flynn-
Not for very long. Sestak’s cheap and can stretch a buck, by using unpaid/inexperienced staff. But, media costs real money and he’s not going to get any special discounts. His fundraising may be hitting the wall. It’s hard to tell, since this is the slow season and with Gov and other Cong races kicking into gear, Sestak’s got more competition for donations.
If Sestak’s fundraising is weak and Specter’s is relatively strong, Sestak might appear less viable donors and enter a vicious cycle making it harder to raise funds.