The Dems should come together, Sestak should pull out and live to fight another day.

My takeaways:
*These numbers are a disaster for someone as well known as Arlen.
*AS is toast against Toomey. He served long and worked hard but his age counts against him. Who wants to give an 80 year old another six year term?
*AS ran a non-stop negative campaign against the unknown Toomey six years ago and Toomey just kept moving up and nearly caught him. AS’s personal numbers are much worse than they were six years ago and unless the economy stages a dramatic turn-around, they won’t improve in the months ahead.
*Jumping onto the Obama ship just as it began to take water will not help him get the votes of the people he left behind and who worked to get his old ship off the rocks. Those votes are lost for good. No nostalgia for the old warhouse who ran away.
*With all the institutional support from Obama, Biden and Rendell, Arlen should be on cruise control in the primary. He is not. At this point in the GOP primary six years ago, Arlen was well over 65% against Toomey and that “poll lock” disappeared like snow melting in the April sun. Fifty three is not secure.
*As with our prosecutor in the GOP primary for Governor, this electorate is not committed to anyone. They want a campaign.

Arlen still below a 38% re-election. I worry seriously if he can beat Toomey. Sestak has more room to move and doesn’t face all the negative motivators (party switch/anti-incumbent) that Specter does among Independents and Republicans. If Specter is on the ticket, it affects the whole ballot for Dems all the way down.

i have to disagree kevin. i think putting an unknown commodity at the top of the ticket, while it is wishful thinking for Sestak, is a ffoolish strategy. Specter knows how to take on toomey, you must give him that much… whereas sestak does not and is way out of his league respectfully i think.

Sestak’s FR drying up and Specter gaining and pulling away in the polls from him…. as the election nears is not good news for the viability of Sestaks candidcacy.

This poll confirms what I suspected when the Rasmussen Poll came out over a week ago:

That Rasmussen was still skewed in Sestak’s favor by 8 to 10 points, and that a better poll, like Quinnipiac would show us. MY EXACT QUOTE from my posting
http://www.pa2010.com/2009/12/specter-leads-sestak-by-13-in-new-poll/
– Begin quote:
“I agree that Rasmussen has been pretty unreliable, and an outlier, promoting Sestak (apparently to hurt Specter). This poll is more inline with the better pollsters.

There are two reasonable conclusions to draw:
1) Rasmussen finally conducted an honest poll.
2) Rasmussen is still an outlier and Sestak will be shown trailing by 22 points in the other polls”

– End Quote

I predicted 22 and it was 23. That was Dec 9th. Damn, I’m good!

Looks like my Christmas is coming early!

Part of the reason Sestak isn’t going anywhere is his reputation. This past week I had the opportunity to talk with a union leader in Washington about plans for PA and my concerns about keeping the State Legislature (because of census and district redrawing). When the subject of Sestak came up, I discovered that Sestak’s reputation had preceded him. He’s well known for being not well liked, being unreasonable, treating his staff poorly, and not playing well with others.
Barring some revelation linking Specter to Tiger Woods, Specter’s the guy the unions are going to support. Sestak never had any chance without splitting off Union support. Considering the way Sestak treats his employees, he’s the kind of boss that Unions were formed to fight.

On the health care debate, Specter’s actions have spoken louder than the harsh words of his raucous townhalls.
On the military issue, Sestak has gone further to the “Right” than Obama by EAGERLY supporting the troop increase AND without a timetable. Yikes!

From where’s Sestak supporting going to come?
Party is backing Specter. And Sestak’s reputation among PA politicians is even worse, since they know more inside stories the closer you get to his district. Sestak has to go out of state for even weak endorsements.

Health Care has been a wash or slightly to Specter’s advantage.
Sestak’s “small business” proposals don’t mean anything to the voters that are regular employees (or probably anything to small business owners either).

Dan, stop 100 people on the street and I bet you can’t find even one of them that can tell you ANYTHING about Sestak’s proposals for small business.

Sestak’s entire political strategy boils down to: “Hey, look at me. I used to have 3-stars. 31-years, Baby! Be impressed and vote for me.”

For the low, low price of $1 million dollars, I will advise Sestak on how to save $4 million dollars in this campaign. My advice:
QUIT NOW!

I’ll take direct deposit or cash. No checks. I don’t want the bank fees if I bounce a $1 million check.

GOPHawk-
Specter’s numbers are tied to the economy and how unaware people are of Toomey’s extreme views. Many voters simply don’t realize that we dodged another Great Depression and that Specter deserves credit for his actions.
If this sinks in, Specter’s numbers will improve with Obama’s.

Kevin-
The “room” for Specter is two-fold:
1) The economy improving
2) Revealing the true nature of Toomey.

Looks like Sen. Specter has begun to solidify his Democratic base.

What is unclear is to what extent his weak showing in the general is based on the decreased popularity of Pres. Obama and the Democrats nationally, and what is based more on Sen. Specter himself.

I’m not sold on Rep. Sestak’s appeal statewide. Going from the House to the Senate is a huge jump in PA, especially for a Congressman only in his second term, with no previous political experience (not a knock on Rep. Sestak, just a statement of fact).

David, my opponent, interesting points of view. My observation about our prosecutor in the GOP primary is applicable to the Senate race — the sub fifty number against Gerlach is telling. Both parties are facing base voters who are extremely unhappy and willing to consider their options.
You should review the details of the Specter-Toomey fight in 2004 when Arlen had the entire GOP leadership on his side including President George Bush and ex-Governor Tom Ridge and a warchest millions of dollars more than his unknown opponent and a fifty point lead in the polls six months from the election. It all disappeared as Arlen the hare just edged out the turtle at the primary finish line.
Given that the polls are so much closer, the money so much less stacked in his favor, and the birthdate that much more in the past, the moral of that old fable may come true this time.

Was this filmed in Pennsylvania or Virginia?

http://joesestak.com/happyholidays

Oddly, the link isn’t on the front page, or even in the media/video section.

It’s great seeing Alex looking so healthy, happy and energetic. She was a RIOT during the 2006 campaign. She would be in the office and pick up the phone (even if it didn’t ring yet) and say: “Sestak for Congress!”

I think Joe should put her completely in charge of the campaign’s media operations and make her the campaign spokesperson as well.

I cant see real good, but is that a specter pin on their dogs collar?

Nice video! thanks david for sharing.

Although I continue to believe that Sestak will make a better, more reliable senator than Specter (who moves along with the winds of public opinion, as opposed to principle), Sestak has not demonstrated that he is anywhere near the equal of Specter as a campaigner — either individually or in campaign strategy. Although he has improved his personal campaign style somewhat, Sestak’s campaign is so overwhelminmgly negative that voters are not drawn to him.

While I’m not suggesting that he abandon completely his highlighting of Specter’s record, including Specter’s consistent support for the devastating Bush-Cheney agenda, Sestak needs to tell voters what he can do and make them feel positive about himself. Not being Specter is not going to be enough for Sestak to win the primary.

Worse, if large numbers of voters are not enthused about either Specter (and they will never be) or Sestak, they are less likely to turn out in the general election, thus giving credibility to Toomey’s chances — something many could not even imagine at this time a year ago.

Lee-
Does the Sestak campaign even have a campaign manager yet? Back in July or August, the campaign announced they were pulling his brother from that role and hiring a professional manager. That’s 4 months ago, and still no campaign manager. My guesses:
1) No one decent wants to work for as little pay as Sestak is offering.
2) He can’t find anyone that thinks he can beat Specter. (I’ve recently learned that campaign managers feel their career is only as good as their last win, so they don’t want to take on a loser. This is different from my previous belief that they were more mercenary, willing to take any candidate that pays regardless of the chances.)
3) Sestak’s reputation as a boss and control freak is keeping away the talent.
4) Sestak can’t find anyone with the “unquestioning loyalty” required to join the cult.

I’ve been trying to explain this for a few years, but the Sestak campaign never really understood or appreciated how much help/support they got from the local party and the initial good-will offered to them. That good-will wasn’t returned in kind. The 2006 campaign was very disorganized. They had a backstop in the form of the local party and the coordinated Rendell/Casey campaign of experienced people doing their jobs.

Sestak had three things going for him:
1) He could raise money.
2) He had a “story” with the 3-stars and 31-years to make himself look good. (The story was more sanitized and fictional then we realized.)
3) He was a hard worker.

The problems:
1) He followed the worst political advice and ignored the best. So, when he still won, he kept the bad advice (not wishing to argue with success, and not realizing the difference between short and long term success).
As Sestak is fond of saying: Amateurs do tactics. Experts do logistics.
Sestak’s campaign is all tactics.
2) He relied on people he trusted (family) rather than people with experience.
3) He was willing to cast aside any ally (like local st rep candidates) that got in the way of his own goals.
4) When he got to the top, he dissed the people that got him there and didn’t lift a finger to improve their lot. (and now, they are not lifting a finger to help him)
5) He underpays and mistreats his staff to the point where he’s well known for it. This leaves him with hard-working young people that need to start at the bottom, but quit once they can get a better job (or even quit without a job to go to).

As for Specter, once he’s done with Toomey, Pat’s own mother wouldn’t vote for him.

The “enthusiasm gap” is a real concern. Republicans will be motivated (1) to take back the Governor’s Mansion; and (2) to take down the prodigal son.

What will motivate Democrats to get to the polls? Keep this question in mind over the next 11 months…

1) Fear of a zealot like Toomey.

2) Fear of GOP economic policies rolling back the economic recovery.

3) Fear of the GOP having more than 40 votes and tying up the Senate for years.

Sestak quotes (and take out of context) an erroneous newspaper article to falsely claim he’s narrowing the lead with Specter. In an email sent to supporters yesterday (Dec 21st), Sestak quotes a Dec 17th article in the New York Observer:

Joe Writes:
– begin quote
“The passion and conviction of our Senate campaign caused the New York Observer, reviewing next year’s Senate races, to say last week:

* “The highest-profile of these is in Pennsylvania, where Arlen Specter['s] … lead over his primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, keeps narrowing. … Some wonder if national Democrats are propping up a dead horse.”
– end quote

The ACTUAL article is here.
http://www.observer.com/2009/politics/bob-menendez-into-wind

First, the article ignored the Rasmussen poll of the previous week, showing Sestak slipping. Second, the article came out the day before the Quinnipiac poll showing Sestak down 23. Clear slippage on two polls.
The actual quote that Sestak selectively edited said:
“The highest-profile of these is in Pennsylvania, where Arlen Specter, whose party switch gave Democrats their 60th Senate seat earlier this year, is being backed to the hilt by the White House and Mr. Menendez’s D.S.C.C. But his lead over his primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, keeps narrowing—and in general election match-ups with Republican Pat Toomey, it’s a dead heat. Some wonder if national Democrats are propping up a dead horse.”

So, Joe pulled “where Arlen Specter['s]” from what should have been
“where Arlen Specter … is backed to the hilt by the White House and Mr. Menendez’s D.S.C.C.”

Joe had to cross into another sentence and add “['s]” to stretch the truth.

Gee, Joe, why not just quote articles from October? Pretty soon, you’ll be left with quoting your own press releases.

Joe’s second case of selective editing:
– begin quote
It’s why the National Journal (the leading source of nonpartisan political reporting) openly questioned last week:

* “… is Specter really the strongest candidate Dems could field? … Specter is outperforming Sestak [now] largely because he is much better-known.”
– end quote

The missing “….” is this:
“Though he is running better against Toomey and is outpacing Sestak, is Specter really the strongest candidate Dems could field?”

David—

Seems like Sestak is getting into desperation mode… switching remember he tried this using quotes and mixing words around with Jim Burn Jr… not very smart on his behalf.

Its also interesting how he uses the timing element as you rightfully point out to misrepresent the current state of the race to folks in a mailing. Is this to snake people out of more money? Didnt you or someone else on here before who allude to Sestak as a bad car salesman? If so, he’s misrepresenting his candidacy as a brand new car, when its a clunker.

That said, he should now send one out saying… the lead isnt narrowing, its a blow out, dont waste your money, and i am stepping aside….

It’s time to end the Democrats. Not just in an election. I mean the final solution. In Kansas, we ran out the lone Democratic Congressman, Dennis Moore, and he will leave the state entirely. As employers, we need to deny Democrats jobs; deny them tenancy – I don’t allow Democrats to mow my grass, collect my garbage, or even serve me food in restaurants. No Democratic bumper stickers are allowed on teachers cars – nor may they teach my children in public school. This is war, America, and we fought the civil war over much less than what they have done to us.

boy you guys sure knew what you were talking about