Karl,

Let me get this straight, you are saying that one of the campaigns is so flush with cash but also so flush with stupidity as to do any sortof polling during the days leading up to the holidays (when few are home or pay attention)? Okay fine, I’ll bite.

I think your Schroeder-induced blindness has caused you to overlook the obvious culprit — Doug Pike. Pike has to be scared. He is being attacked by an upstart D after being the presumptive nominee. By putting himself in the poll, he is attempting to marginalize the credible challenge from Dr. Trivendi. Further, the language you quote and the gratuitous shots at the Bush administration certainly sounds much more like a Dem push poll than anything a GOPer would use. Good effort, but your bias has led you to an incorrect and twisted conclusion.

Dan,

I really enjoy this site, but I hope we’re not letting partisan supporters air their conspiracy theories under the veil of opinion. I appreciate and commend the growth of your site, but Mulder and Scully should not get the same forum as declared candidates who are trying to share ideas.

There is no reason anyone but a Republican candidate would be spending money talking to Republicans, especially Republican officials like Karl.

Until the primary is over, canddiates will focus on getting their own party behind them.

Don’t candidates have to disclose this information when doing these polls?

Karl is crazy like a cat!

Chesco Tom:

Thanks for your thoughts. And yes, I got the call. Frankly, I am not creative enough to make something this stupid up out of whole cloth.

Can you explain to me why Doug Pike would waste money calling Republicans and Libertarians prior to a Democrat primary? If not, your reasoning does not wash.

Also, as the fact I favor Schroder is mentioned twice in the piece, it seems to me your fears of partisan claptrap overtaking pa2010 are a bit overblown. Besides, are not advocates also permitted to have opinions?

Finally, I also consider the case for Pike and Schroder himself making this push-poll, right out there in the open, in front of God and everyone. So impugn my reasoning, if you can. You haven’t yet. You’ll note I actually asked people what they think, as I acknowledge my bias. Would you like to similarly acknowledge yours?

[Aside: Calls like this are not really about polling. They are partisan attack calls disguised as polls. So your reasoning regarding their usefulness is undermined. And if the perpetrator stumbled into making one to a frigging GOP committeeman, I guarantee you I'm not the only Republican getting them.]

Frankly, I’m looking for an argument that some entity besides the relevant candidates is behind the poll. But I just can’t see it. Absent that, it seems like Welch.

I did just get an e-mail from the Welch team denying it. So there’s that. But it was from a prominent member of his Finance Committee, not Mr. Welch himself. I suppose it’s possible this man doesn’t know about it. Or it’s possible they didn’t do it. So if not, who did?

@ Mark:

Push polls are generally associated with an individual or PAC not formally associated with a candidate, so identifying who is responsible can be difficult. I believe there are notorious presidential push polls for which people are still trying to officially finger the culprit.

They are also very expensive, and most common in party primaries.

@ Sally: As I love my cats Jeeves and Wooster, I will take that as a compliment.

– Please note, Karlub = Karl Bucus, the writer of this piece.

Karl,

I take seriously your call to readers to suggest who we think is behind these ominous calls. I do not wish to impugn your creativity or allege that you made up this push poll story.

To me, the language of the call as you relayed it indicates a decidedly Democratic slant. The shot at Wall Street is a common Democratic theme used by all DNC organs as well as the administration. I am not judging their tactics, just stating that this is their well known M.O. Also, I have not known any GOPers to invoke the “Bush/Cheney administration.” Typically those who add Cheney to the mix are doing so to play upon their perceived negative feelings toward our former Vice President. That may or may not work for you. Frankly, I consider having an affinity for Vice President Cheney as a major selling point. But that is just me. Were this a GOP call that invoked the “Bush administration,” the call would not have used the word “administration” and would have also addressed our 43rd president as “President Bush.” As a result of my amateur analysis it is clear that this call would not come from a GOPer.

Given that it is unlikely to be a GOPer and according to you, Pike is the only D who could pay for it, his campaign is the logical choice. He has the motivation – stem the tide of an upstart challenger. Specifically,he needs to get some traction and name recognition. I cannot speak to the relative incompetence in calling registered Rs, but stranger things have happened. In the not so distant past, I’ve received calls and mail from Organizing for America. Lastly, if the Welch campaign is half as competent as you think and you are as big a blip on their radar as you claim, I think they would have removed you and your wife from any call list. If I were them, I would have.

We do agree on a few things, however, push polling is so 1998.

First, my co-worker got the same call and he is a registered Democrat. He talked to a high power friend and was told this was a Pike poll. I’m just as surprised that both parties are getting polled.

Second, what makes me nautious about Karl is that he tries to come across as some independent thinker (even calls himself good cop in a previous post) but he is just another political insider trying to get another life-time political insider elected. If anyone else took a midnight pay raise, Karl would attack that person with no mercy. But instead, Karl probably gets promised a job by Curt (that is how these insiders work) as long as Curt wins the seat. Karl will lie and make any assertion to get his guy elected.

Well, let me toss in my theory:

“Will you be voting for Democrat Doug Pike or Republican Steven Welch?”

This “pushes” the idea that Pike and/or Welch will be the nominee. So, it stands to reason it’s either Pike or Welch.

As someone who deals with voter files myself (and often has more up-to-date data than many of the “professional” companies based in Washington), Karl should not place too much stock in his own party affiliation as an indicator of the caller. Places like Quinnipiac and Rasmussen call both Dems and Republicans and ask about various November match ups.

It’s possible that the pollster here is concerned about a recent poll or one they expect to come out and are looking for some ammunition to counter it. Or maybe, they want to use some “internal” numbers when talking to donors about their chances.

Look at Sestak’s latest fundraising email. He’s quoting a newspaper article from last week that (erroneously) states the gap between him and Specter is narrowing. Sestak can’t make the claim himself, so he quotes an article that he knows is wrong to cover his @ss.

Similarly, our mystery pollster might want to tell donors: a recent poll showed me beating XXX (leaving out that they commissioned the push-poll in the first place).

@ in 6th:

You clearly have never met me. Skip Brion, chair of the Chesco GOP committee, would be moved to hilarity to hear me described as an “insider”. The partisan GOP attack dogs to whom I constantly suggest open-mindedness– the ones that think I’m a RINO– would be bemused. The state party chair that called up Skip asking about a “renegade” committeeman trying to rock the insider boat during the presidential primary would be confused.

Please just read what I say. Stop assuming you know who I am, or what I am about. It’s all there on the page or screen. If you stick with that, you may discover we agree more than you think. If you’re interested, I’ll buy you a cup of coffee. Reach out to me via social media. I’m easy to find. Are you?

@ ChescoTom: Your reasoning assumed that if this was a Republican, said Republican has a desire to act like a good party Republican. As I am unaware of this being a popular strategy right now with ANY Republican, I still ain’t buying it. Also, shots at Wall St. are a pretty common affair nowadays.

Now, calling me could’ve just been a goof. In which case I buy the Pike argument is plausible. But in that case the selection of Welch as the presumptive GOP nominee makes no sense. The Pike team wants to run against Schroder. Not Welch. If it was Pike, Schroder would have been the presumptive nominee in the poll, and if he were, I would be certain is was Pike.

But he wasn’t. And it was me that was called. A Republican. So I still vote Welch.

Or, like I said, the Welch team denies it. So I am open to conspiracy theories implicating state or national party organizations. But I can’t think my way through that one on my own. Doesn’t seem to make sense.

Pike will lose in the general election. His campaign website reads alike it was written by the Obama administration. Problem is, Obama has an approval rating of 46% and it continues to go down. For Pike to have a chance, he will have to come up with some original positions on the issue, not merely copy the Obama administration. Otherwise, he is looking at a 7+ point defeat next November.

This is clearly a poll by Pike to show insiders he is has a shot at winning in November.

Karl—

Clearly, you are letting your imagination get the best of you. Also, I don’t think this blog should be letting biased writers post campaign propaganda.

Here’s a thought? Why are the Schroder supporters so quick to forgive Schroder’s sins and not Welch’s. Let’s not forget, if the candidate can’t win then no matter how “right” his cause is, he won’t be able to effect change. Schroder supporters should take a long hard look at the 6th Congressional District demographics before sending someone this conservative to the voters.

Regardless of who paid for it, it’s pointless.

If it’s a “push poll” what is it pushing? It’s so vague, unclear, and otherwise obtuse that it has no effect whatsoever other than annoying the hell out of people for no discernible reason.

Dan-
I’ve got an idea:

Why don’t you contact each of the campaigns, and see if anyone will own up to it. If they lie, and then later it comes out that they were behind it, it will be worse than if they just tell the truth now.

Pointless-
I agree that except for “pushing” the idea that only Pike and Welch would be the candidates, the poll seems pretty useless.
The fat-cat concept is a bit of a push. Maybe, one of the candidates is planning to accuse another of being in bed with the fat-cats and wants to have poll numbers showing 95% of voters are against fat-cats.

@ pointless: I don’t disagree!

@ Nick: Where are these pristine unbiased commentators of which you speak? Have one in a zoo? At least I am crystal clear about my bias.

Also, someone who thinks Schroder is “too conservative” for the district doesn’t know much about his record on malpractice reform, insurance reform, open space, legislative reform, and watershed protection. Of course, it will be his job to be sure the voters know about that stuff.

@ David: Good idea. Also, while it is unlikely anyone plans on running on a pro fat-cat platform, there are actually fat cats running, albeit to their credit neither one of them is a Wall St. fat cat.