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Another poll shows Onorato leading wide open Dem primary

Another poll shows Onorato leading wide open Dem primary

Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads his Democratic rivals for governor in next year’s primary, but the vast majority of voters remain undecided, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday was just the latest in a slew of surveys that have shown the party’s primary to be anyone’s race to win. The poll of 619 Democrats found Onorato winning 14 percent of the vote, followed by Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel at 8 percent, state Auditor General Jack Wagner at 7 percent, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty at 6 percent and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox at 5 percent. A full 59 percent of voters are still undecided.

The poll shows little change from Quinnipiac’s September results, though more voters were actually found to be undecided.

Onorato remains mostly unknown in the vote-rich southeast, with 91 percent of all voters saying they haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion. With a vast proportion of the primary electorate in the five-county Philadelphia region, Onorato has started the primary campaign by staffing heavily in the area.

Vast majorities of Democrats also don’t know enough about the other party nominees.

The margin of error among Democrats was 3.9 percent.

Click here to see the full poll.

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December 17, 2009 at 11:42 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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  1. David Diano

    Dec 17th, 2009

    My key “take-aways” from the poll:

    First of all, the following statement is not that big a concern to me:
    “All of the candidates are so unknown to most Democrats that it is anyone’s guess what will happen,” said Brown. “One thing is for sure; with five months until the May 18, 2010 primary, none of the candidates is even close to separating themselves from the pack.”

    People are worried/focused on the National politics (and weary of that). It’s still pretty early and petitions aren’t for another two months, along with county conventions and endorsements.

    With Onorato at only 14%, these other Dems are actually in VERY good shape ESPECIALLY Hoeffel:

    “Trailing Onorato in the Democratic race are 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Joe Hoeffel with 8 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner with 7 percent, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty with 6 percent and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox with 5 percent.
    In general election matchups, Corbett leads Onorato 45 – 30 percent, Wagner 43 – 33 percent and Hoeffel 46 – 30 percent.:

    First of all, Hoeffel, Knox and Doherty are splitting SE PA votes. Add them together (8+6+5) and you’ve got 20%. Wagner and Onorato (14+7) is 21%.
    And, as Dan pointed out, 59% undecided. Around Philly area, a lot of people probably don’t even realize that Hoeffel and Knox are running.

    The matchups of the Dems against Corbett show them all to be about the same. So, Onorato appears to be leading in the Dem Primary, but he’s go no “polling” advantage over the other Dems for the General.

    To me, this is definitely a wide-open primary. If any of these guys can find the message that will resonate with a large swath of Dems, you’ll see something like 30%-40% for that candidate and the rest under 20%.

  2. Brian Kline

    Dec 17th, 2009

    I understand it’s the holiday season, but with Onorato barnstorming through the southeast and picking up key endorsements, you would expect his numbers to be better. If I’m Joe Hoeffel, I’m feeling pretty good after reading this poll.

  3. STEELBLITZ1

    Dec 17th, 2009

    Concerning statistics… to me are that Corbett actually leads Onorato in Union households by ten points. Thats very telling.

    Also curious to me is the fact that Onorato has a kind of high unfavorability in Allegheny County, and Hoeffel does in the Southeast. Why so?

    That being said, candidate with high name recognition and very high favorability ratios is Jack Wagner. He has been gaining on corbett in the general.

    Will be a heated race after xmas.

  4. Red Pin Pete

    Dec 22nd, 2009

    If I were Hoeffel or Wagner, I would be very concerned. Onorato doubled up both of them. They both have run statewide, and no one knows them? Actually, let me change my statement. If I were Onorato, I have to be feeling pretty good.

  5. huh?

    Dec 22nd, 2009

    Onorato’s numbers are horrendous with union households because he’s never done anything for any union anywhere…and has made a career of screwing the unions in Allegheny County.

    Despite the sycophantic support of Steelworkers leaders such as Johnny DeFazio (who needs Danny boy because DeFazio sits on County Council), ask any labor leader who says they support Onorato the following question: “What has Onorato ever done for any union in Allegheny County?” and you will have your answer. After they get done stammering and babbling and saying nothing, you will get the idea…Onorato has done nothing for unions or anybody else. It’s all about Dan.

  6. Onorato unfavorability

    Dec 22nd, 2009

    Dan Onorato’s unfavorability in Allegheny County is easily explained. His arrogance fills whatever room he’s in, he thinks he’s always right, doesn’t listen to anyone, and it’s all about him.

    He ignores court orders when he perceives it’s in his political interest (e.g., he insists on maintaining a property assessment system that benefits the very rich at the expense of the poor and middle class because he perceives that’s better for him with his donors despite repeated court orders). While those outside of Allegheny County think he’s a “nice guy” those in the county know the real Dan Onorato.

    Dan Onorato–bringing the drink tax to a county near you.

  7. AdventureGuru

    Dec 23rd, 2009

    Election math for dummies from a former State Committeeman…

    State of the State = non-stop legislative corruption + impotent budgetary mess

    Corbett = doing something about the corrupt, lazy, entitlement-driven Harrisburg cesspool

    Other candidates = talk…blah, blah, blah

    Homer Simpson says “Doh!”

  8. Bill

    Jan 3rd, 2010

    Onorato is arrogant and I’m from the Philadelphia area. He thinks that the Rendell connection with that waste of time and money John Estey will save the day for him. He has also demonstrated an arrogance far beyond what even Rendell would do. He tried to involve himself into the Lt. Governor’s Primary and he now knows that was a major mistake. Saidel is the only candidate and is smarter and more capable than all the other candidates for Governor! This pompous wanna is very lucky that Saidel didn’t choose to run for Governor. He is an obnoxious self centered know it all that needs a reality check real soon or the Dems will lose this race (and Corbett is all show and no substance)

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