Strong move by Lentz in landing Nutter.

Nutter is a great speaker and a solid draw.

Interesting move by Rep. Lentz, which ultimately appears to have the effect of forcing Rep. Vitali’s hand to stay out of the race. This should be considered somewhat of a tragedy by the 7th Congressional District voters who will miss out on the best candidate due to his indecision.

delcomod-
I like Vitali. But, he’s been pondering a run since mid-summer.

Lentz is hungrier for it.

That doesn’t automatically make Lentz a better congressman, but it does make him appear as stronger campaigner. You can’t serve, if you can’t get elected.

All the campaigns are going to have difficulty keeping momentum during the upcoming holidays. If Vitali’s decides to run, he needs to come out VERY strong by early January. He needs to have a good campaign team lined up and ready to hit the ground running after the initial bump he’ll get from the news.

Bryan already has a strong campaign manager and an aggressive strategy.

I’m not saying that Vitali no longer has a window of opportunity, but Lentz is trying to paint it shut. The paint will be dry very soon.

Delcomod-
Lentz is not forcing Vitali to do anything.
He is running his campaign on his own terms, as he should.
If Vitali is interested in the 7th seat, he can certainly enter this crowded field at any time.

Delco Mom-
It’s not really all that crowded.

Touey has no visibility beyond getting an obligatory (courtesy) mention. She doesn’t not appear even remotely viable, and I have serious doubts about her clearing the hurdle of 1,000 petition signatures. If she’s doesn’t have additional room to spare (getting over 1,050 or 1,100), there will almost certainly be a petition challenge to knock her off the ballot.

Gail Conner is off to a nice start. But….
Lentz has such a huge head start (money, name recognition, staff, reputation, etc.) that Gail will be hard pressed to do more than keep Lentz from getting lax and taking things for granted. However, she could luck into a decisive issue or be a phenomenal debater/campaigner. She should be able to get the 1,000 signatures, based upon her previous ground experience for Obama.
Gail could be the Trivedi of the 7th district.

Vitali would not be entering a “crowded” field. He would have NO trouble getting the signatures. He’s good on the issues, an experienced legislator, well liked and respected locally and across the state. He’s got active Dems in his district who would go to the wall for him. If he takes some anti-nausea medication, he could tolerate the fundraising aspects and bring in the cash.

Vitali is a viable challenger to Lentz, though Lentz currently has the advantage.

Interestingly, (and in contrast to the Senate primary), neither of them could legitimately run a negative campaign against the other. Even a negative “whisper” campaign would have serious blow back.

I would NOT like to see an expensive primary (which is one of my many objections to the Senate primary), because it drains resources from the real fight in the General. However, a low cost “informational” primary, where the candidates spend enough to put out their message, highlight a few friendly differences and polish their skills, can strengthen and energize the party. The individual supporters could still come together after the primary behind one candidate.

I hear you, David.
I believe that Vitali and Lentz have a healthy respect for each other, and sincerely hope that there would be an issues based, clean primary if Vitali were to enter.
Frankly, I believe these two Representatives have similar profiles and voter appeal.
Spending Dem primary dollars in a Sestak drained district will only help Meehan and his team in 11 months.
If Vitali had a real interest in the PA-07 seat, I can’t figure out why he did not file after PA budget passed as he said he would. Waiting till January can’t help him in the money race….
Any thoughts?

Delco mom-
Vitali had started talking about running mid-summer. The only real issue that makes anyone pause is whether Greg would be aggressive enough in the fundraising. He’s not fond of that aspect of campaigning, and raising the kind of money needed for this race would probably suck too much of the joy from everything else.

About the Sestak drain on the district….
There is a bit of debate on whether or not Sestak helps or hurts. If Sestak wins the primary, he will turn out his base in his district, which COULD have coattails for the 7th CD race. However, it will also drain volunteers and money (and would actively target/turnout split-ticket Republicans that would vote Sestak + Meehan).
On the other hand, if Sestak loses the primary, 7th CD Dems won’t have to divide their attention, resources and money between Sestak and CD race. Lentz/Vitali/Conner would be able to have their pick of Sestak volunteers. Those of us, who would never lift a finger for Sestak, would also be available to help in the CD race.

Most critically, there wouldn’t be the money drain for the General election. The Dem candidate could tap into all those potential Sestak General election dollars. Without Sestak, the Governor’s race will likely put GOTV resources into Delco, like they did in when Sestak first ran in 2006.

The question is:
What’s the trade off between Sestak turning out Dems and split-ticket Republicans vs the Dem CD candidate having access to extra resources and being the “big fish in the pond”?

It’s a fair question for the CD campaigns to consider.

BTW, if/when Sestak loses, how much time/effort/resources will he put into helping the CD candidate? Will he commit to making donor calls on behalf of the Dems for congress and St. Leg.? Will he turn over his donor and volunteer lists?

He says he’s running, not for himself, but to make Pennsylvania better. Considering he was going to spend something like 40 hours/week campaigning, he’d easily have time to spend 10-hours a week fundraising for Dems in the 7th district.

There are 14 St. Leg seats (7 Dem 7 Rep) in the 7th CD. With the loss of Lentz and/or Vitali, we could use all the big guns we can get raising money for those races.

BTW, on the St. Leg races: 14 Dems 0 Rep is worth more politically than winning the Congressional district. Controlling the State house and redrawing CD district lines would have more impact than a single congressional seat. However, if we went 14-0, we would certainly win the CD race as well.

My point is that controlling the St Leg. is critical to future congressional races across the entire state, for years to come. A loss of Dems seats could cause a re-draw of the 7th CD, so that even if the Dems win this year, next time could be harder.

As we all know, Vitlai would need to raise buckets of cash to compete in the general. Frankly, I don’t think any candidates like this aspect of politics, but there is no other way to reach an entire CD.

Your thoughts about the Sen vs CD are certainly reasonable…. CD candidates can’t do much about it except plan for contingencies.

I agree with you about St Leg. Not sure how many other Dems are thinking about this right now.

Happy holidays!

I really don’t know Rep. Vitali, but the fact that he is political begs the question – Isn’t he looking for a “higher” office. With Sen. Leach occupying the 17th SD, which includes Haverford, this opportunity could be just about it for him.