Sounds like you are on the right track Dan. I bet within a week or two Daylin has to pull the Onorato endorsement. He cannot make the argument that he will be neutral in primaries of one kinda but not another.

I bet he goes neutral in gov’s race too. I think he can make the argument that the primary field has changed a bunch and now he has a close friend in the race (Hoeffel).

I think we’ve learned Leach’s endorsement or non-endorsement either way has no credibility, meaning or value. Maybe I’m old fashioned but when you give someone your word, you’re supposed to keep it.

Charlie-
If you endorse someone, it applies to the CURRENT field of candidates at the time. It’s a RELATIVE statement, compared to the other candidates. If new candidates enter the race, the endorsement can be reaffirmed or withdrawn (without penalty beyond a little embarassment).
It’s not a promise. It’s more of a recommendation.

Early endorsements are always a potential minefield.

For 7th congressional race, I haven’t made an endorsement. I like Bryan, and he seems to be the odds-on-favorite. Vitali would also be a great congressman, and I’m not going to undercut his decision timeframe by jumping on Bryan’s bandwagon. Gail Conner is also an interesting entry, and I’d like to hear what she has to say.

Daylin is a solid progressive. I wish he were running for congress or senate.

Doubt he pulls his support from Onorato. There would be little reason for him to hop off the presumptive favorite’s bandwagon, to risk sinking with Hoeffel.

demdem-
Daylin’s a St. Sen in Delco/Montco. There is no penalty locally for him to endorse Hoeffel. If Onorato wins, he and Daylin can enjoy awkward small talk at events.

David,

The point is, he’d be ignoring his political forecast. His decision to endorse Onorato very early on was obviously calculated. He wants to move up the political ladder and he’s hitched his flag to the odds-on favorite. Why would he risk that? He’s obviously in the market for more than “awkward small talk.”

demdem-
I’m not so sure that Daylin is a motivated by “political forecasts” as other politicians. Daylin’s staked out some pretty progressive positions.

Getting behind the favorite early on doesn’t take a lot of calculation. And, personally, it’s often due to a lack of serious calculation.
Look at all the early Hillary supporters who couldn’t envision a viable challenger to her (let alone a victor).
And on the GOP side too. 2008 was supposed to be Hillary vs Rudy Gulli-9/11.

In 2006, Sestak showed up in February.
For 2010 Senate race, Specter switched parties and threw off all the calculations.

Endorsements before January are just premature. Until people recover from Halloween, Election, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s and the Super Bowl.. the key issues and the mood of the electorate aren’t well formed. Some candidates come in because the early/front-runner candidate isn’t catching fire or looks vulnerable or the field seems weak.

Daylin’s “mistake” was not waiting until January to say something.

What I think is weird here is that Pike is a much bigger favorite than Onorato (gauging money advantage, labor and political support, etc).

I would think onorato would be the one to lose the endorsement first.

David and Weird,

Agreed. If there’s been a “mistake” made on Sen. Leach’s part, it was being a little hasty set sail with Onorato.