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Obama at (almost) one year

A lot in the 2010 elections obviously depends on President Obama’s standing one year from now. The conventional wisdom had him unstoppable a year ago, and now says he’s in today. I didn’t agree with it a year ago. And now? No easy answers, but a couple of observations:

—I wouldn’t be too quick to write Obama’s political obituary. A recent poll showed he had lost popularity faster than all but one or two presidents: but one of them was Ronald Reagan. An improvement in the economy would solve a lot of his problems—although a further decline would of course make them even worse.

—I continue to think Obama’s biggest problem is not being too liberal but being too wishy-washy, what Dick Polman at The Inquirer calls his “pragmatic, nonideological” approach to foreign policy and other issues. Pragmatism is great, but when you split the difference on just about every issue, there’s no cost to anyone (Israel, China, the Senate Democrats) opposing you, and you wind up making more people angry than if you hew to a consistent line.  Jimmy Carter was a classic pragmatist.

—I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again: I think one of the worst parts of this administration is the amateurish, Boys Club White House staff. If a President wants to be a dreamer, that’s fine, but he needs a grownup in the White House to compensate.  Reagan had James and Howard Baker (no relation). Obama has David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel. Enough said.

The good news for Obama is that all or many of these problems are correctable. The question is whether he has the ability or inclination to correct them, or prefers to be a sort of popular, celebrity president who doesn’t really change things all that much. The answer to this question remains, alas, unclear. I think he has time, but not all that much of it. Right now the strategy seems to be to continue on the current course and assume the Republicans are too extreme to get themselves elected—which sounds a lot like Jimmy Carter, again.

November 30, 2009 at 9:14 pm

--Michael Livingston

Tags: Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan

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