[...] Over at Pa2010, Dan Hirshhorn says Joe Sestak has reason for optimism in the latest Q poll results, even if he remains far behind Arlen Specter in the Dem race: [...]

Dan-
The link to the poll isn’t working.

Sestak has been a declared candidate for 2 months now (and spent the 4 previous months practice declaring and dishonestly raising money for congressional race to use for senate race).

Though Sestak has climbed a bit from obscurity, Specter’s Dem support hasn’t eroded, but rather solidified with his work on health care, Amtrak, endorsements, etc.

Sestak needs to get behind Specter, and focus on the real prize of stopping Toomey, not having having beers with Toomey and propping him up.

The townhall that Sestak had with Toomey, helped Toomey a lot. It not only gave Toomey exposure and stature, but it made him look good against Sestak’s weak debate style.

If Sestak used his bromance with the Ed Show to help Specter and the party, it would be the right thing to do, and completely out-of-character for Sestak.

The GOP in general, and Toomey specifically, are riding a bit of a political wave due to continued fears and disinformation. If the economy and jobs pick up by next year’s elections, the party of NO will get defeated.
Specter is still the stronger candidate against Toomey.

Thanks for the heads up about that broken links David.

The poll is now linked properly.

Dan Hirschhorn

Here’s a link, in browser format at Quinnipiac:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1379

Interesting results: Specter has 16 point lead over Sestak among men and 22 point lead among women.

There has been some erosion from Specter into the undecideds, but they haven’t moved to Sestak. This could be a result of Obama’s recent drops or associating Specter with failure to pass health care, even though Specter’s been more loyal than Baucus and other Dems.
Date of poll: Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28
Sestak 25 23 21

Considering that Sestak officially declared 2 months ago and has been constantly on talk shows, this demonstrates that Sestak’s got little appeal, and any fluctuations for Specter are the result of something else.
Sestak has to DOUBLE his numbers and get 90% of the undecideds to reach 50%. Specter needs to move only 20% of them and Specter’s got a ton more money to do it.

Sestak’s milked his military career for all it’s worth, but it’s less relevant for the Senate and a 2010 statewide race, than it was for a local congressional race in 2006.
Specter actually knows the rest of the state. It’s not just some series of pit stops along a tour, like it is for Sestak.

The changes in the GAP don’t mean anything if Sestak’s baseline number remains at 25%.
The ratio of 44/25 will probably be how the undecideds break.

Actually, according to Amy Walters of the National Journal (Cook Report) — and they are pretty accurate along with the Rothenberg Report — Sestak is the stronger candidate against Toomey, rather than Specter. In fact, not only would Sestak beat Toomey, but Specter is also viewed as the weaker candidate against Toomey.

“8. Pennsylvania — Arlen Specter, D (was No. 6)

Given the nature of the state and Republican Pat Toomey’s low profile, one has to give the edge to either Specter or Rep. Joe Sestak (D) come November 2010. Still, Specter is probably the more vulnerable in November. And a bruising Democratic primary gives Toomey the opportunity to make this race a referendum on the nominee’s shortcomings instead of his own. Toomey’s role as the former head of the conservative Club For Growth gives Democratic opposition researchers lots to pore over for politically damaging quotes.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ol_20090929_7185.php

Standard rule for undecideds in polling is that they break 2:1 to the challenger. Undecideds signify voters unsatisfied with the current incumbent who likely do not know enough about the challenger. This steal leaves Sestak with plenty of work to do, but when you read the poll it is also telling you that the race is probably at this point really 54-46 (maybe someone will vote for Kortz, although I doubt he will make it to the primary).

Mary Pat –

I noticed the Sestak folks seized a hold of that National Journal piece too.

My feeling is that relying on one paragraph of analysis out of the thousands that have been written on the campaign is cherry-picking.

But I don’t think anyone can blame Sestak for trying to make that case, and I’m sure that paragraph was at least good for morale on his staff, if not accurate.

yes and Sestak is an “aider and abetter” propping up Pat Toomey to moderates…

that in addition to his unwillingness to be helpful (use and throw away) people

and also in addition to his unwillingness to be decent enough to offer refunds to those donors he misled, all of which forces PA democrats and the DCCC to have to foot the tab for his selfish behavior.

Has anyone else noticed that the anti-Sestak folks who write here are sounding more and more desperate as Sestak gets closer and closer to catching Specter?

Dave Diano,

Is hating Joe Sestak your full-time job or just a hobby?

Lee not desparate…
just exposing some reality about a candidate that is AWOL, yet applying for a promotion, at the expense of his constituents, donors which he misled, and of course the state and national democratic party. If he has u bamboozled… thats your problem.

Lee-

Have you also noticed how chalk full of Specter/Diano talking points they are?

It’s getting fairly old.

Hey captain jack…
if you cant take the heat… then get out of the kitchen.

I can take the heat, I’m just not going to debate someone who can’t take the time to think up their own “opinions”.

I’m fine going toe-to-toe with Diano. At least he’s a real person with his own thoughts (no matter how whacky, off-base, and personally vindictive I think they are).

Lee-
Sestak is no closer today than he was 3 months ago. He’s polling at 25%, has no traction, and has no party support.
The concern is that he’s been sucking funds away from Delco Candidates for 3 years now and weakening the local party. All Sestak is accomplishing is helping Toomey at the expense of Specter and the Democratic party.

Mary Pat-
The National Journal and other Republican-biased sources are promoting Sestak and trashing Specter (whom they feel betrayed them by not supporting hard-core right-wing ideology). They WANT Sestak, because they are confident Toomey can beat him.

Anonymous:
They are going to break 9:1 in favor of Sestak.

BTW, there are plenty of liberals pretending to support Sestak to keep him in the race as pressure on Specter. However, they plan to dump Sestak once they get the votes out of Specter. They know Sestak can’t beat Toomey, but they are shining Sestak on before they drop their support. Sestak is pretty easy to manipulate because his ego makes him believe he is liked.

Anon-
More like an important hobby: keeping a fraud like Sestak from progressing further by revealing who he is

Capt Jack-
You are posting under your first name only. There’s not a lot of heat you are taking. My “toe” is part of my foot, kicking your a$$.
WestPa is obviously swayed by the strength of my arguments, which are no doubt being reinforced by new information he receives about Sestak.

Jack…

I’ve been able to formulate my own opinion of Sestak from all the facts that have begun to be circulated regarding his incompetence, being a fake progressive, absenteeism… not to mention how he’s objectively screwing the PA Democratic Party and making it harder on my candidates out west because he’s selfish.

As for sestak supporters, i hope you’ll start to come around on this. Capt. Jack has blinders on… he see’s Sestak’s candidacy as a tasty piece of chocolate cake… what i see is a giant piece of horse manure. Esp. thanks to the revelations coming about daily about his absenteeism and how he and Rick Sestak mis-use campaign folks that helped him.

You folks scare me. Toomey the banking insider, Specter the 30 year DC insider .. While the US falls apart around us.
I wonder if any of these politicians are concerned that very, very soon, a million folks a week will be losing unemployment benefits and defaulting on everything, the week after that.
Think the banks will hold-up? There is no sector to provide new employment. The USofA is in deep doodoo. Toomey was there, Specter is there, Sestak is there. Seems the end result is the same.
A failing Government and a failing Country.