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Polls show Toomey beating Specter for first time

In the flurry of election coverage last week, one poll slipped our attention here at The In-Specter. Its a big one, and I commend it to your attention: Pat Toomey now beats Arlen Specter in a head to head match up, with 43 percent of voters supporting Toomey, and 42 percent of voters siding with Specter. Full poll results available here.

Sure, it’s a razor thin margin, and polls change fast. Bet this can’t be good news for the Specter campaign, which has seen a steady erosion in public support for the former Republican since he switched parties earlier this year. Specter’s overall approval rating is a measly 44 percent.

Still, there is a silver lining for Specter’s campaign. Toomey is still largely unknown to Pennsylvanians, with 53 percent of voters saying that they “do not know enough about him to form an opinion.” That means, once a general election comes around, Specter can use his significant financial resources to paint Toomey as an out-of-touch conservative extremist.

Moreover, Sestak does not fare much better in a theoretical match up against Toomey; there, Toomey barely beats Sestak, 38 to 35 percent—with 25 percent of voters saying they are undecided. Worst of all for Sestak, he still consistently under-performs Specter in the Democratic primary race—this same poll has Specter trouncing Sestak by 19 points, 44 percent to 25 percent.

Sestak has been working overtime lately to make a dent in this figures, and I find his new Web site, The Real Specter, to be absolutely devastating to Specter’s new-found liberal sheen. Sestak’s messaging is consistent and smart. His argument, that Specter has shifted left because of his entrance into the primary, making Sestak effectively a “101st senator,” is ingenious, true or not.

But can he make up enough ground, and make himself known to enough voters, in time to overtake Specter at the polls?

October 9, 2009 at 12:14 pm

--Adam Schwartzbaum

Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey

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