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Not so suddenly, Pa. becomes ground zero for competitive House races

First, Joe Sestak left his seat open to take on Arlen Specter. Then, Jim Gerlach said goodbye to his hard-to-defend seat to run for governor instead. Later, the Democrats got their man to run a competitive race against Charlie Dent. Primaries got crowded. Political forecasters got more and more excited.

Oh, and there’s still those freshman and sophomore Democrats who have to defend conservative districts.

Day after day, the Keystone State has become the to place watch for fiercely competitive House races, a microcosm of national political trends that could very well serve as the loudest amplification of whatever does—or does not—happen on Election Day 2010.

“You really get a lot of bang for your buck when you watch Pennsylvania,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report.

After making significant gains the last two cycles, Democrats acknowledge they’re on the offensive here just like they are throughout the country, determined to avoid the cascading losses they experienced in 1994.

But opportunities abound for both parties, and political analysts say that if Republicans are to make major gains in the country, they’ll have to perform well in Pennsylvania. Four years after losing Delaware County’s 7th District to Sestak, Republicans hope to take it back by seemingly clearing the primary field for former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, widely considered a strong candidate, even by Democrats. Not too far to the north, Democrats hope to win Gerlach’s seat almost 10 years after it was drawn to ensure Republican control, and after coming agonizingly close to knocking him off in previous cycles. To the north of that, Democrats also hope to finally have a formidable challenger to incumbent Dent in the 15th District, having convinced Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan to get in the race. To the north of that, Republicans are looking to knock off longtime incumbent Paul Kanjorski in the 11th District.

“There are a lot of districts that are exposed,” said David Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report. “And it’s not just the districts that were drawn to elect Republicans. … There are five or six Democrats who could end up facing competitive races in Pennsylvania.”

In some ways, the high-stakes cycle is the inevitable result of years of shifting political trends. When Republicans controlled redistricting in 2000, districts were drawn in Pennsylvania not to safely entrench Republicans incumbents, but more to win as many seats as possible.

“Instead of concentrating their voters in a smaller number of districts, they spread them out in a larger number of districts where they’d have just enough of a majority,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College.

But then dissatisfaction with the Bush administration led to widespread defections from the GOP voter rolls, especially in the critical Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by more than 1.2 million voters, and the tables turned in the last two cycles.

“They tried to maximize the amount of seats they had,” Borick said. “In an attempt to get a bigger majority of seats in the state, they took some risks, and those risks have come back to bite them big in the last decade.”

Now, with Democrats controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republicans are looking for what has historically been a significant, mid-term election snap back in their direction. The uncertainty surrounding the health care debate has only added to their confidence.

“Obviously you never want to count their chickens before they hatch, but the way things are going right now, the environment is really favoring Republicans,” said John Randall, e-campaign director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Not that Republicans don’t face their own challenges. A crowded GOP primary to succeed Gerlach in the 6th District has Democrats confident they can finally win there. And Callahan is seen as the strongest challenger to ever take on Dent in the 15th District.

“The race in the 15th District is a bellwether,” Wasserman said, “because if John Callahan is able to stay in the game, then that’s sort of an indication that voters are frustrated with both parties, but in more of an anti-incumbent mood. But if he goes nowhere, that tells us voters are more frustrated with Obama’s inability to change course in Washington, and that this is not the time to give Democrats more control.”

Defending the seats they currently hold, Gonzales said, will determine whether Republicans can make larger national progress.

“You can’t make big gains on offense without having a good defense,” he said.

There are 13 months until Election Day, and a multitude of things could change. The economy could get better—or worse. The war in Afghanistan could continue to play a larger role in the political debate. More candidates could—and almost certainly will—emerge.

However things turn out, said Franklin & Marshall College political scientist G. Terry Madonna, Pennsylvania is sure to stay in the limelight.

“We’re definitely in the top-5 states for the most competitive seats,” he said.

October 6, 2009 at 9:33 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Bryan Lentz, Charlie Dent, Chris Carney, Corey O'Brien, Curt Schroder, Doug Pike, E. Teresa Touey, Greg Vitali, Jason Altmire, John Callahan, Kathy Dahlkemper, Lou Barletta, Manan Trivedi, PA-10, PA-11, PA-15, PA-3, PA-4, PA-6, PA-7, Paul Kanjorski, Ryan Costello, Steven Welch

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