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3 lessons learned and 3 questions raised in the 3rd quarter (Updated)
The numbers are in, digested and covered to death.
So with third quarter FEC reports squarely in the rear-view mirror, pa2010.com returns to the big picture. With that in mind, we offer up the most important lessons learned from the early fundraising hauls, along with the questions still to be answered.
LESSONS LEARNED:
1. Joe Sestak has work to do. The fact that the Democratic Senate hopeful saw his fundraising slow down during his first quarter as a presumptive—and then official—Senate candidate can only be seen as a setback, one underscored by the terse statement released by the Sestak campaign when the numbers were announced. To be fair, the $758,000 he raised is still a considerable sum, it was never expected that he would match Arlen Specter’s fundraising prowess and polls continue to move in his direction. But the dip reinforces how hard it will be for the normally powerful fundraiser to fill his bank account when so much of his party is behind Specter. The numbers his campaign reports next quarter will come with high stakes.
2. Charlie Dent has a race on his hands. Democrats have been dying to knock off the 15th District incumbent Republican for years, and they seem to have found their man in Bethlehem’s young mayor. John Callahan outraised Dent by more than $100,000 during the period, becoming the only House challenger in the state to best an incumbent in the money game. He still trails
Dent’s total cash on hand by about $100,000, but that gap should be easy to close at the pace he’s moving. Look for this one to be close next year.
3. If Doug Pike and Steven Welch win their respective primaries in the 6th District, get ready for a self-funded donnybrook of a race. It was always expected that both Pike, a Democrat flush with a family fortune, and Welch, a wealthy Republican entrepreneur, would spend heavily on their campaigns. But until recently, they were running in different districts. Now they’re fighting for their party’s nominations in the 6th, and both are considered by many political insiders to be the favorites next spring, if for no other reason than their deep pockets. Between loans to his campaign from Welch and outright contributions from Pike, the two have given their campaigns more than $1 million combined. It only stands to reason that more is on the way.
QUESTIONS RAISED:
1. Can Arlen Specter’s money overcome his sinking poll numbers? There’s simply no denying that the Republican-turned-Democrat has seen his political standing fall considerably and consistently since he switched parties earlier in the year, with one poll showing that less than a third of voters think he deserves reelection and multiple surveys showing that Democrats who know both him and Sestak prefer the latter. On the flip side, he’s loaded, riding high with close to $9 million in the bank and no reason to think he won’t get loads more. Will it be enough?
2. What’s Pat Toomey spending his money on? The Republican Senate candidate has raised more than $3 million during the cycle, ahead of a primary that he’s expected to walk away with easily. But he’s spent about $1.3 million of the haul. There haven’t been television ads, and a complete look at his spending won’t be publicly available for a couple weeks. Polling? Research? High-priced consulting? Where’s the money going?
3. Who’s going to win the money race in the 7th District? The early indications are that the race to succeed Joe Sestak is going to be an expensive one, with the likely candidates being Democrat Bryan Lentz vs. Republican Pat Meehan. The two were pretty much even for the third quarter, their totals separated by less than $10,000. While Lentz supporters would argue that his early fundraising advantage is notable considering the fact that Meehan was laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial bid for months, Meehan supporters could just as easily say he took round one since his total was officially raised in just 16 days. So for now, let’s call it a tie. When the chips are done falling, who’s it gonna be?
UPDATE: Toomey’s campaign responds to the question about his spending?
October 19, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Tags: Arlen Specter, Bryan Lentz, Charlie Dent, Doug Pike, Joe Sestak, John Callahan, PA-15, PA-6, PA-7, Pat Meehan, Pat Toomey, Steven Welch













mike mentzer
Oct 19th, 2009
Toomey has been doing alot of Web ADs. One only needs visits news sites like Topix or local newspaper web sites to find Toomey ads..
The guys face is everywhere on the Web..
Dan Hirschhorn
Oct 19th, 2009
Good point Mike. He gets pulled onto to pa2010.com frequently through Google Ads. But those are pay-per-click and don’t cost too much.
We’ll see what the detailed reports reveal.
Dan Hirschhorn
obamarox
Oct 19th, 2009
The money vote is flowing to Arlen which just goes to show that the corporatists could care less which party you belong to as long as you bow down to their agenda. This is the problem. Look at the health insurance guys. They are doing great. Look at the Wall Street guys. They are doing great. The average guy is in big trouble. We need people who will stand up to the big money people.
David Diano
Oct 19th, 2009
Dan-
How many millions of clicks do I need to make on Toomey’s ads.
obamarox
“We need people who will stand up to the big money people.”
Well, that isn’t Joe. Have you seen his recent Foreclosure proposal? He wants the government to pay the banks the difference between the mortgage value and the appraised value, then re-mortgage at the appraised value.
This is a TOTAL gift to banking. Plus, what happens when the housing prices go up? How does the government recoup? Also, this is likely to cause a new bubble by resetting prices without any pain.
The BETTER approach would be to force banks (especially the ones bailed out) to drop the interest rates to something affordable. If someone’s got a 20 or 30 year mortgage, it’s ridiculous to for the government to pay the difference between purchase price and new appraisal value in a down market. The prices should recover long before the mortgage is done.
If a person thought the house was worth XX dollars, all many need is affordable interest rates or some leeway on missed payments to avoid foreclosure, due to variable rate hike that was killing them. They can wait it out and live there until the price comes back.
What Sestak is proposing is an irresponsible gift to the banks.
LESSONS LEARNED:
1. Joe Sestak has work to do.
Umm.. he worked harder this quarter, got no traction, and raised less money, despite spending more.
QUESTIONS RAISED:
1. Can Arlen Specter’s money overcome his sinking poll numbers?
It’s not Specter’s money but his Democratic Party votes that will win him the primary. Specter WILL get the main Union endorsements (though Sestak will pick up a few scattered ones)
2. What’s Pat Toomey spending his money on?
Besides promoting Sestak?
Dancing girls? (probably not)
Buying political support (could be)
3. Who’s going to win the money race in the 7th District?
Once Sestak stops draining the pool, it should get easier for Lentz.
For that race, the Dems need only parity. Past races were lost by 10 or 20 to 1 GOP fundraising advantage. The Dems only need to better than 2/3 to get their message out. Outraising would be better, but 2/3 is enough ratio to be viable.
westpadem6
Oct 19th, 2009
I think Sestak is obviously going to have a far less quarter. its call tapped out. The keg is dry. Onto the next party
Mike S
Oct 20th, 2009
I think the key to remember is that money isn’t everything but you have to have a story and a base of supporters. I feel that Sestak does have a base of supporters but I also hear that he works them to death for little pay.
As for the PA 6th, I would have to say that since it is a district that runs from Reading to Lower Merion, money might not be all that effective to get votes. There is no central media market to place TV ads, there isn’t one central media source to use those millions. That race will be won on the ground and by the person who can get the most grassroots support and knock on the most doors. In the republican primary it really isn’t a contest but in the Democratic one watch out!
Media
Oct 20th, 2009
I believe the 6th is only 1 media market: Philadelphia, which is incredibly expensive.
Kipp Lanham
Oct 20th, 2009
Toomey reportedly has spent money purchasing expensive donor databases.
6th Watcher
Oct 20th, 2009
“The BETTER approach would be to force banks (especially the ones bailed out) to drop the interest rates to something affordable.”
This is a crazy idea. So the mortgage companies that were not bailed out can’t compete with the companies “Forced” to lower interest rates? Or if they force everyone to lower their interest rates for mortgages but the debt the banks use to support the loans has a market rate that increases to about the “Forced” rate and now the banks are out of business? The BEST solution is for government to stay out and let the markets correct the problem. Then they need to step in and improve regulations so banks stop hiding risks by placing liabilities off their balance sheets (CDOs, etc.).
obamarox
Oct 20th, 2009
The banks own Congress. Even the House Dems and Barney Frank just caved on derivatives. One of the basics of sound markets is transparency. They are going to let the big banks hide their derivatives from the light.
You get what the big Wall Street banks have done, don’t you? They have engineered a system where they get all the rewards and – if the risks blow up — you, the taxpayer, get to bail them out. That is not capitalism. That is cronyism. We see it at all levels of government but this is so outrageous that the future of the country is at stake. They are the only ones with big money and they use it to buy Congress who uses their power to preserve the status quo and that is destroying the middle class. “Too big to fail” means the taxpayers will rescue you.
Dan, it would be much more useful to know who is owning our candidates not just how much they raised but who is pulling the strings.
David Diano
Oct 20th, 2009
6th watcher-
I’m talking about for existing predatory loans that got jacked up from their initial low/affordable values.
My bank is paying 0.05% (yes, 1/20th of a percent) on some accounts. That’s $1 for every $2000 you have on deposit.
While there are some people that can’t afford a mortgage and deserve foreclosure, the majority could probably handle the payments under the original conditions. Force the interest rates low on mortgages from the past few years, and hold them for low for a few years. After that, they can creep up a little bit.
The banks that got bailed out by taxpayers should be doing everything possible to avoid foreclosing by offering generous terms to existing homeowners. Minimizing foreclosures reduces the number of homes for sale and will help support housing values.
You say the government should stay out, but then step in to regulate AFTER the “markets” correct the problem? The banks won’t correct anything without the regulations. The market doesn’t self-correct. That was the flaw in Alan Greenspan’s entire premise.
The government also needs to go in and start putting in jail some of the bankers that caused the problems.
obamarox
Oct 20th, 2009
The financial system is more concentrated today than 12 months ago. It will be more concentrated 12 months from now. There is an oligopoly that is sustained by Congress and that can raise rates, up fees and rescind credit lines whenever and however it wants. Most importantly, they can create opaque, highly risky ‘products’ to generate enormous profits this year and when those products explode next year, they collect on that as well. If the counterparty cannot pay, they go to the taxpayer. Biggest payday for Wall Street before this year .. 2007 at the height of the bubble, second biggest payday … 2008 when the bubble exploded. Guess what, new biggest payday on Wall Street … 2009. What is wrong with this picture?
That is why total dollars means nothing. Who owns these guys and what are we paying for their support?
GOPHAWK
Oct 20th, 2009
I shock myself by agreeing with obamarox. Teddy Roosevelt broke the trusts and Clinton/Bush enabled the rise of new trusts. Small business creates jobs but the trusts won’t lend them money. The bailout was all wrong. We should break up the big banks, re-establish the firewalls among financial services, and force them to earn money by competing to offer capital to risk takers. Right now, the Wall Street banks get no interest money from the Fed and charge consumers 27% interest on credit cards. Sweet deal if you can get it and only the top banks can get it.
David Diano
Oct 20th, 2009
GOPHawk-
Watchout. You are starting to sound like an anti-monopoly Democrat.