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Top-5 questions in the Specter-Sestak matchup

It’s on. After months of political teasing and shadowboxing, Joe Sestak finally declared his Senate candidacy against Arlen Specter last week.

It will be one of the most closely watched primaries in the country, and very possibly the most expensive race in the land. There are countless factors that could sway the outcome. But at pa2010.com, we humbly offer up the top-5 questions whose answers could tilt the race.

Disagree with our order? Think we missed one? Let us know by posting a comment.

5. How much money will Sestak need?

Arlen Specter is one of the best fundraisers in Pennsylvania history, and no one expects Joe Sestak to match his mettle in that department. He doesn’t really need to. The question, how much does he need in the bank to be viable? The answer is, probably, a lot. He had about $4.2 million as of last month’s campaign finance deadline, compared to almost $7 million for Specter. The longtime incumbent will continue to raise significant sums from Democratic supporters who liked him long before he switched parties. And with Gov. Ed Rendell firmly behind Specter, Sestak will be hard-pressed to raise money from the big-money donors in Pennsylvania.

But outside the Keystone State, Sestak could find himself the darling of liberal activists and high-profile progressive fundraisers who don’t trust Specter. Specter will spend big, so anything less than $10 million for Sestak doesn’t seem enough. $15 million would be safer. One thing’s for sure—Sestak’s decision to sit on most of his money last cycle sure seems prescient now.

4. Will Specter keep voting blue?

Much has been made of the FiveThirtyEight.com analysis that showed Specter siding with the Democrats on 97 percent of contentious votes since Sestak signaled he’d mount a challenge. It was an admittedly small sample of votes to examine, but the point is nonetheless clear—after fleeing a challenge from his right flank, Specter is wary of his left. Sestak has made it so any and every time Specter opposes President Obama, liberal Democrats will have a new reason to vote against him come primary day. Health care, climate change, labor laws and more are all still before the Senate. Specter definitely gained points for his pretty consistent backing of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court. Will his leftward tack stick?

3. Where will Sestak find a base?

This is a tough question, because Specter is the most well-known politician in the state. Until Sestak made his lighting-quick 67-county tour, Specter was the only one known for ever pulling off such a feat—and he does it a bit more deliberately than Sestak executed his PR blitz. Sestak has to find a concentrated base of support somewhere beyond his home in Delaware Couty, but where? The greater Philadelphia region would make sense, if only Specter didn’t already have it on lockdown. Sestak’s military background could make him appealing to conservative Democrats in western Pennsylvania, but he’ll have to rack up huge margins and still cut into Specter’s support in southeast Pennsylvania to have a chance.

With the Philadelphia media market far more expensive than any other in the state, expect Sestak to spend heavily elsewhere in the hopes winning big margins outside the region. But as Rendell demonstrated in his 2002 primary win over Bob Casey, that’s a tough formula. The southeast is where the Democratic votes are.

2. Who’ll endorse Sestak?

Almost everyone who’s anyone in the Democratic establishment has said they’re backing Specter, including Rendell, President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Endorsements don’t matter much when voters go to the polls, as Rendell himself has said. But when it comes turning out crowds and getting in front of voters on the campaign trail, having support of the locals is key, and here Sestak will undoubtedly be at a deficit.

Perhaps his best bet will be to pick off endorsements from within the state’s Congressional delegation. There was noticeable resentment of Specter when he switched parties and expected to maintain his seniority, and if anyone would get behind Specter, it could be his House colleagues.

Speaking of endorsements, will Obama really campaign hard for Specter? If next year comes around and the president’s political capital is on the wane, he may be reticient to spend it on a longtime Republican.

And the No. 1 question in the Democratic Senate primary is… Will Specter’s attacks backfire?

In 2004, Specter attacked Republican Pat Toomey relentlessly and still almost lost the GOP primary. It’s easy to make the argument that those attacks only elevated Toomey, serving to legitimize him in the eyes of reporters, pundits, party officials and voters alike. Six years later, Specter runs the very same risk in his campaign against Sestak.

After staying mostly quiet about Sestak in the weeks following his party switch, Specter has been on the attack almost daily, hitting Sestak for missed votes, party registration and more.

This is a real conundrum for Specter. Even though he was always moderate as a Republican, he has no Democratic record on which to run. He has made much of his vote for Obama’s stimulus package, and surely will continue to do so as long as it remains a potent issue. But with polls showing that the overwhelming majority of voters already have solidified opinions of Specter, he has little choice to try whatever he can to tear Sestak down.

But will that only build his opponent up?

August 10, 2009 at 9:30 am

--pa2010.com Staff

Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak

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