Michael Livingston's Blog
Michael Livingston's Blog
Purple in Pennsylvania
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Smug Democrats sing their own praises—is Pennsylvania listening?
Well I seem to provoked more comments than usual with my suggestion that things ARE looking up for the GOP in the 2010 Congressional races. One said Carney and Altmire were “safe” and the Democrats would pick up both the 6th District and the 15th District. Another said: “Keep dreaming Michael. 2010 looks even better for Democrats on paper than 2008 did.”
More sympathetic commenters suggested that Steven Welch would be a strong GOP contender in the 7th District and, even more optimistically, that Allyson Schwartz would “have her hands full” in the 13th.
I think the key phrase above is “on paper.” Sure, it will be a great year for Democrats if all the trends from last year continue. But they won’t. With Rasmussen reporting a -6 presidential approval rating and a 5-point Republican lead on a generic ballot—and the Democrats on the defensive on health care, the budget, and almost everything else—it’s plainly a very different world than it was even three months ago. The news that Pat Meehan is probably running for Congress only adds to the GOP’s strengths.
Of course, this could change, and the Democrats could cruise. But with unemployment mounting and moderates in their own party jumping ship, is at least as likely to get worse. The biggest mistake in politics is to assume that what happened before will happen in the future.
Smug and self-satisfied, the Democrats are making exactly that mistake now.
August 8, 2009 at 9:00 am
Tags: Allyson Schwartz, Democratic Party, Pat Meehan, Steven Welch













Jonathan Geeting
Aug 8th, 2009
Rather than using only Rasmussen, which has shown the worst numbers for Obama consistently throughout the year, I would challenge you to provide non-Rasmussen evidence that the non-Republican public is jumping ship on Obama. Indeed, nearly all of his drop in numbers has come from Republicans. I think there’s an important distinction which you do not draw between Congressional Democrats wavering and where public opinion is actually at on these issues. Despite the expected trepidations over individual controversial elements of the health care bill, like how to pay for it, the structure of the insurance exchange, a public option, among others, a strong majority still backs major structural reform – something Republicans are using bad faith arguments to block. Support for a public option remains untouched, lingering in the 2/3 range. I would encourage Republicans and their sympathizers to continue to falsely believe, well into the midterm elections, that skittish Democratic votes in the Senate are evidence that the underlying proposals are unpopular. Please run against change again. And it’s not smug to point out that historically low support for the GOP, unchanged throughout the year, combined with Democrats’ monopoly over all ascendant demographic groups and a favorable electoral map in 2010 are going to lead to more Democratic gains. A worse offense is the contempt for one’s readers’ intelligence that would be a necessary condition for writing stories about a Republican comeback when literally no polls point to such a trend. Show us where the public’s skepticism about policy details is translating into improved numbers for Republicans.
David Diano
Aug 8th, 2009
Rasmussen seems to generate polls to encourage Republicans than ones that are accurate.
michael livingston
Aug 9th, 2009
Rasmussen is generally regarded as the most reliable pollster in the country. No one, absolutely no one, questioned their veracity when they showed Obama doing well. And all of the other major polls–if differing in intensity–show pretty much the same direction.
David Diano
Aug 10th, 2009
Even when they showed Obama doing well, they showed him less well than the other polls.
During one downturn for Obama in 2008. Rasmussen himself was on Hannity talking about how bad Obama was doing in the polls. The very next morning Obama was up in the Rasmussen poll (something Rasmussen would have known the night before). Instead, Rasmussen shamelessly promoted Obama’s weaknesses in a poll that was outdated.
You’ll also find ads for Republicans rather than Democrats on Rasmussen’s site.
I’ve found them to be reliably biased.