Michael Livingston's Blog
Michael Livingston's Blog
Purple in Pennsylvania
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GOP in good position for House, Senate races
The news that national Republicans are targeting half a dozen seats in Pennsylvania, together with the now-official Sestak-Specter derby on the Democratic side, puts the GOP in a more enviable position than it has been in the past five years.
The House list is significant for including not only such obvious targets as Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney, Paul Kanjorski, and Jason Altmire but also the always-in-trouble John Murtha and whoever runs for Sestak’s seat in the 7th District. If the GOP picks up even two of these seats—and holds on to the 6th District seat being vacated by Jim Gerlach—it would be on track, proportionately speaking, to regain control of the House in 2010.
I’ll admit that’s a little misleading, since the Keystone State tends to have more swing seats than other comparably sized jurisdictions—but not by very much.
The Sestak-Specter race, in addition to providing a great show—Specter was all over his opponent even before he entered the race—will also burn a tremendous amount of Democratic money and energy that would otherwise go into the congressional races. Pat Toomey, who has (rather improbably) stated that he would vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor, is plainly enjoying the spectacle and positioning himself toward the middle. None of this means the Republicans will win anything—it depends on the economy, health care, and just how much lower President Obama’s ratings will go.
But for a party that was “dead” a few months ago, the GOP looks increasingly on the offensive, and the Democrats are doing their level best to help them.
August 5, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, NRCC, Pat Toomey, Republican Party
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Bio: Michael Livingston is a law professor at the Rutgers University in Camdem and was a 2008 Republican candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania's 2nd District. He also blogs at http://mikelivingston.blogspot.com.
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Whatever
Aug 5th, 2009
PA-15 and PA-6 are Democratic pick-ups this year with Callahan and Pike running strong.
Carney and Altmire are safe.
suburban dem
Aug 5th, 2009
I agree wiht Whatever. 2010 will not be a republican year here in PA. I predict that either Lentz or Vitali retain 7, and the others are all safe. keep pipe dreaming repugnicans.
WESTPADEM6
Aug 5th, 2009
I think it is foolish for Sestak to run… Im going w the best bet to help our entire ticket. Specter. Go Arlen.
Jon Geeting
Aug 5th, 2009
Keep dreaming Michael. 2010 looks even better for Democrats on paper than 2008 did. We have several strong candidates playing offense. The fact that the NRCC is targeting races doesn’t mean anything. When you’re at or near your lowest ebb, you’ve got to target something. Doesn’t mean you’re going to win. All recent polls still show the GOP with historically low levels of support, their ranks thinned down to a small shriveled rump of safe seats, themselves made up of shrinking demographic groups. Voters may be hesitant about some of Obama’s policy specifics, but they’re wishing him the best, and are certainly not looking to Republicans for answers. Most polls show at least a 25 point gap in trust between Obama and the Congressional GOP. 2010 will net Democrats a couple more Senate seats and +/- 10 House seats.
Dave
Aug 5th, 2009
The 7th will be the district to watch. Neither Lentz nor Vitali have made any real name for themselves in the district and don’t have much of a story to tell. Career politicians that don’t do anything to excite the base or the middle. They do have experience in campaigning but they’ll do to do more than politics-as-usual to beat the very hungry Republicans.
With Steve Welch (official site: http://www.welchforpa.com) the Republicans have a real marketable and electable candidate, a candidate that can excite the base on economic/job-creation principles and can court the middle with his common sense (read lack of political experience) to complicated issues.
Anonymous
Aug 5th, 2009
Believe it or not, Schwartz is going to have her hands full in the 13th, and she doesn’t even know it
flynnbw
Aug 6th, 2009
I don’t think the “career politician” label fits unless you’ve been in office for more than, say, 8 years. Rep. Lentz, only having served since January 2007, is hardly a career politician. If you use that logic than you might as well just rule out anyone who has ever served in elective office more than a few months … start campaigning against Welch as soon as he becomes a “career politician” in about April of 2011.