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For Dems in conservative districts, 2010 could be a rough ride

CORRECTION APPENDED (see bottom)

If you’re a member of Congress, the first couple reelection fights are always the toughest. You have only the most minute record on which to run, and your fortunes often twist in the wind with the fate of your party on the national level.

But for freshmen and sophomore Democrats who represent some of the state’s historically conservative districts, the 2010 elections could shake up as some of the most politically challenging Congressional fights in recent memory. These are folks who were swept into Congress in 2006 and 2008 thanks in large part to dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and a swell of support for the Obama candidacy. Their constituencies arguably remain right-of-center, the kind of voters who might be the first to sour on Democrats if they can’t turn around a sagging economy.

For folks like Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3), Congressman Jason Altmire (D-4) and Congressman Chris Carney (D-10), a confluence of factors like these could spell trouble. Like so much in 2010 politics, it likely all hinges on the economy.

“That’s the most important issue,” Dahlkemper told pa2010.com recently. “Even prior to the downturn, the 3rd district of Pennsylvania was suffering. It’s really all about the economy and good-paying jobs in my district.”

G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, agreed that fiscal policy is likely the be-all, end-all issue next year.

“I think there isn’t any doubt it will dominate the election,” he said. “Pennsylvania has historically been one of the states that reflects national angst about the economy.”

On paper, at least, Dahlkemper and Altmire would seem the most vulnerable. They are a freshman and sophomore, respectively, who unseated incumbent Republicans in what are still very conservative districts. Whether that vulnerability translates into serious Republican challengers remains to be seen. The GOP had hoped to recruit state Representative Mike Turzai (R-Allegheny) into a challenge against Altmire, but that talk has died down of late. No one has emerged yet to officially challenge Dahlkemper.

“You can’t beat somebody with nobody,” former Republican Senator Rick Santorum said in an interview. “You’ve got to believe [the Democrats are] going to have well-funded candidates.”

Carney is widely considered to be the safest of the three—again, on paper. He easily bested Republican Chris Hackett in winning a second term last year. An Iraq war veteran announced last week that he’ll run against Carney.

In an interview, Carney echoed the sentiment that economic issues are key, and said he didn’t focus on party affiliation, an important mentality in a district like his. Half his stuff is Republican, he said.

“You’ve got to know something about me—I come from a politically broken home,” he said with a chuckle. “My mom was Republican and my dad was a Democrat.”

Republicans at the state and national level are clearly itching to recapture some of the seats. The NRCC listed Dahlkemper, Altmire and Carney as vulnerable targets in a recent memo. And the state Republican Party has hired a full-time liason to coordinate with Congressional campaigns.

“We’re watching all of those people very, very closely,” state GOP chairman Rob Gleason said recently. “Remember, these Democrats have made some difficult votes, in districts that are very close. I think they’ve made some votes that people in the districts aren’t happy with.”

Robby Mook, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Commitee, said the party was prepared to defend its incumbents in vulnerable districts, and would provde assistance for fundraising, organization and policy research.

“They’re really good fits for their districts, and that’s why they were elected in the first place,” he said of the freshman and sophomore Democrats.

In the end, it may come down to factors beyond any single candidate’s control. If tentative signs of an economic recovery begin to take hold, Republicans will be hard-pressed to make their case against Democrats’ reelection bids. But if the economy continues to stagnate, no amount of campaigning will convince centrist voters that Democrats deserve another chance.

“Either way, if the economy rises or falls over the next year, it’s going be largely attributed to what has come down from the Obama adminsitration,” said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College. “The perception is that he’s at the helm, he’s steering economic politicy, he’s going to get the blame or credit, and along with him, Democrats can rise with him or receive some of the blame and anger.”

Correction: This article originally said that Jason Altmire is a freshman Congressman. He is a sophomore, having first won election in 2006.

August 10, 2009 at 2:33 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Chris Carney, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-10, PA-3, PA-4

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