2010 is a non-presidential year so the turnout models will show PA to be close to a 50-50 state when it comes to voter turnout. Regardless of the million member advantage Ds have in registration, not all those Ds will be voting in November 2010.

So, as the R candidate, a poll shows Toomey getting close to 50% against an incumbent who had a bad week.

The more telling number is how Toomey does against a relative unknown Dem, Sestak. Around 45%…probably most of the Republicans.

I think that the cross tab you have exhibited that show those for Obama’s health care reform are for Specter and those against Obama’s plan are against Arlen is just a proxy for Ds (who are for Obama) and Rs (who are against). I bet if you look at the partisan tabs on the health care they would match up that way.

This isn’t to minimize the large number of undecideds for Specter. That is a huge problem. But what I think the poll shows about Toomey is normal gravitation by Rs to the R candidate. Toomey is doing nothing more special than being the R candidate. This could shake out to be similar to Casey vs. Santorum. Casey didn’t do anything special…he was just the D against an incumbent at the right time.

Don’t give Toomey too much credit and certainly don’t give Toomey any credit for persuading any appreciable number of voters…there has been zero direct voter contact so far and you’re kidding yourself if you think that voters are paying much attention at all to Toomey at this point in the campaign.