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Toomey would beat Sestak, poll says

Toomey would beat Sestak, poll says

If Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) managed to unseat Senator Arlen Specter and faced Republican Pat Toomey in a general election today, he would lose narrowly to Toomey, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac survey, which found Specter and Toomey in a dead heat in a potential general election fight, shows Toomey beating Sestak in a general election 39 percent to  35 percent.

But the numbers could largely be a reflection of Sestak’s lack of name recognition and increasing anxiety over the economy, with 23 percent undecided and close to 70 percent of voters not knowing enough about Sestak to form an opinion.

If Sestak were to face Republican Peg Luksik in a general election, he would edge the conservative activist 39 percent to 30 percent.

•Also on pa2010.com: In dramatic change, new poll shows Specter and Toomey in dead heat

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July 22, 2009 at 8:51 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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  1. Lee Levan

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    Dan

    Did you mean to say that the poll shows Toomey beating Sestak (not Specter) 39 to 35?

    If so, with about 70% not knowing enough about Setak to form an opinion, and given the fact that Toomey has been a statewide (albeit losing) candidiate previously, and with over a year to go before the general election for Sestak to become known to voters, Sestak has a huge opportunity to grow his support. In fact, it’s amazing that Sestak is omly 4 points behind Toomey at this moment in time.

  2. John

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    Lee-

    Sestak’s unknown is 69, Pat Toomey’s is 56.

    In that matchup both have a similar handicap, and Toomey comes out on top.

    As a Democrat, will you support the nominee with the best chance to beat Toomey?

  3. Dan Hirschhorn

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    Thanks for pointing out that error Lee. I’ve fixed it.

    Dan

  4. David Diano

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    Lee-
    Sestak is suffering from lack of name recognition in Philly and SE PA, his own backyard and a VERY expensive media market.
    Against Weldon, Sestak had the PA State party and coordinated Rendell/Casey campaigns helping out. This time: nada.

    Why assume that the people with “no opinion” will land much differently than those with an opinion? Toomey beats Sestak solidly across every region of the state, outside of the SE and Philly area.

    Unless Sestak can fix the economy, he’s going to lose. If the economy does improve, Obama, Rendell, Casey and Specter will get the credit.

  5. Jack

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    John-

    Anyone who knows this state would know that Toomey’s unknowns will likely hurt him in our Left-leaning state and Sestak’s would help him much more.

  6. Lee Levan

    Jul 22nd, 2009

    John

    I would never say that I always support in the primary the candidate with the best chance to beat the Republican. For example, if a right wing Democrat with huge popularity, an abundance of money, and the backing of the party, labor and other activist groups was opposed by a decent candidate with a significantly smaller chance to beat the Republican, I’m voting for the decent candidate every time.

    In the Sestak-Specter primary, I believe either one of them will beat Toomey. In fact, I’d say Sestak has a better chance than Specter to do so.

    This is going to be fascinating to see how it develops and turns out.

    As a Democrat, will you support the nominee with the best chance to beat Toomey?

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