Michael Livingston's Blog
Michael Livingston's Blog
Purple in Pennsylvania
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The real story vs. the make-believe story
In looking ahead to the next year’s elections, locally and nationally, there’s a real story and a make-believe, fill-the-airtime story. The media is now focusing on the latter, but that will change with time.
The make-believe story is the supposed “self-destruction” of Republican candidates like Mark Sanford and Sarah Palin, and the supposed “unelectability” of others like our own Pat Toomey.
The real story is the economy: nearly 500,000 jobs lost in June alone, millions since last Fall, and little evidence that the stimulus package, or anything else the Obama administration has in mind, will do anything to reverse it. Perhaps for this reason, Rasmussen reports that Obama’s “plus-minus” rating—the difference between those who strongly support and strongly oppose the President—is now at -3 percent -5 percent. Even more surprisingly, the same pollster’s generic congressional ballot now shows Republicans with a 3-point lead: too early for panic but an astonishing change from a few short months ago.
If I were the President’s advisors, I would be a lot less worried about personal scandals and a lot more about the overall direction of the country. The voters, at least to hear from the pollsters, appear to understand this. The media is behind the curve.
July 8, 2009 at 9:29 am
Tags: Pat Toomey, Republican Party













Justin Gilmore
Jul 8th, 2009
There is nothing fake about the Palin’s or Sanford’s stories. Both figures are prominent on the national scene and their resignations or refusal to resign are national news.
Also you make an accusation that Obama’s magic wand is not working. It was very clear to me that this stimulus package was for the long term. We would not wake up the next day and everything would be fixed.
Finally your dancing with the poll number is laughably inane. It seems you are reaching desperately for any negative number to predict the end times. I would like to check the numbers myself but the link is broken, please fix this.
Dan Hirschhorn
Jul 8th, 2009
Hey Justin,
pa2010.com editor Dan Hirschhorn here. Apologies for the broken link. I am looking for the right link and will fix ASAP.
Thank you for pointing out.
Dan
Dan Hirschhorn
Jul 8th, 2009
Fixed, and one number updated to reflect the more recent polling data from today.
Dan
michael livingston
Jul 8th, 2009
Dear Justin,
It’s interesting that you would call the numbers “laughably inane” when you hadn’t looked at them. That tells you a lot about support for Obama and how it is based on emotion rather than reason at this point.
Jon Geeting
Jul 9th, 2009
Obama’s failure was his inability to pass a big enough stimulus package over the objections of conservative Democrats and of course Republicans. The problem is not that Obama has moved too far to the left, but rather that the stimulus was not big enough to fill the hole in demand left by the credit crisis and consumers pulling back spending. He made a political calculation, but the policy most economists were proposing – a stimulus of 1.2 trillion – was far to the left of where Dems were willing to go. Much of the media criticism of the stimulus has been from the right – along the lines of whether Obama was right to pass a stimulus package at all. But the real valid policy criticism – the only one that matters if we’re serious about actually recovering – comes from the left. Obama’s failure has been that he too often comes out for weak policy that can gain congressional support, but is insufficient to fix the problem. The same is true of the climate bill and the public insurance option. A bill with an employer mandate and the public insurance option is $400 billion cheaper than one without it. The further left the bill, the cheaper it is. That is why a failure to perform may sour voters on Obama, but will not translate into support for Republicans, especially Bush Republicans like Pat Toomey.
michael livingston
Jul 9th, 2009
Well, this sounds increasingly like the argument supporters of the Vietnam War used to make–it’s the right idea, we just need more troops. It may be correct economically. But politically?