Adam Schwartzbaum's Blog
Adam Schwartzbaum's Blog
The In-Specter
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More proof that primary is moving Specter left
The In-Specter has continued to note that Joe Sestak’s primary challenge has done a lot of good in turning Arlen Specter into a reliably Democratic vote. Well, here’s more proof: acclaimed stats guru Nate Silver has crunched the numbers, and on the “contentious votes,” Arlen has voted with the Democrats 28 out of 29 times since Joe Sestak announced his intention to oust Specter on May 27th. Prior to that, Specter had only voted with the Democrats about two-thirds of the time. Good news for Democrats? Not so fast…
True, having a reliably Democratic vote in Specter pays short-term political dividends. Yet what these results also indicate is how quickly Specter can change with the political winds. Specter may be running to the left to trounce Sestak, but once he’s secured the nomination, there’s no guarantees he won’t run back to the center again. In fact, with Pat Toomey gaining ground in the polls against him, its almost a foregone conclusion. Specter looks like a mainline liberal for the moment, but for this ever-changing Senator, that image provides little comfort in the long run
July 28, 2009 at 10:23 am
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey
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Bio: Adam Schwartzbaum is a law student at the University of Pennsylvania who has worked on various Democratic campaigns.
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Jon Geeting
Jul 28th, 2009
We know how he votes when there’s pressure from the right and pressure from the left. Nate Silver shows that when there’s no pressure, Democrats can only count on him a little over half the time. Surely he won’t run for reelection in 2016 when he’ll be 86 years old. So where’s the accountability? Democrats who want another wet blanket Joe Lieberman-style spoiler should vote to let the national party machine coronate Specter. Democrats who want to shake up the gridlock in the Senate and break the grip of Ben Nelson’s waterdown gang of spoilers should vote for Joe Sestak.