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In Sestak’s rough poll numbers, a big opportunity for growth
The Quinnipiac poll that came out Wednesday morning didn’t have a lot of good news for Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7). He would get killed by Senator Arlen Specter in the primary, it said. Even if he knocked off Specter, he’d lose to Republican Pat Toomey in the general election. He’d barely even beat underdog Republican Peg Luksik.
But as he wraps up his three-week, statewide publicity tour, he can take solace in one very important number: A full 69 percent of voters surveyed haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.
With the Democratic primary still nine months away and voters’ perceptions of the economy far from crystallized, his lack of name recognition could, paradoxically, prove his greatest asset moving forward. Whereas Sestak has loads of time and money to shape how voters view him, Specter has much less wiggle room. In the same poll, only 9 percent of voters hadn’t heard enough about the longtime incumbent to form an opinion.
But it won’t be easy—or cheap. The poll was conducted July 14-19, well into Sestak’s media blitz, signaling that he still has a long way to go toward getting his name on the general public’s radar. He has $4.2 million in campaign cash on hand, according to campaign finance data, but analysts widely agree that he’ll need significantly more than that to make an impact against Specter.
The last few months since Specter defected to the Democrats have just been a preview. Now, the real race begins.
Later on pa2010.com: Sestak talks about his statewide tour.
July 22, 2009 at 9:08 am
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey, Peg Luksik
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David Diano
Jul 22nd, 2009
Dan-
Is “Sestak talks about his statewide tour” an interview, or just reporting on existing reports?
I predict Sestak will say words to the effect:
– I was excited/thrilled/impressed to meet so many wonderful people in Pennsylvania share my vision
– This trip showed that the voters want a choice and not be dictated to by party elites/insiders
– I am now even more inspired to run for Senate (which I’m still not ready to announce yet)
– blah, blah, blah
My prediction: Nothing of substance, and nothing that couldn’t have been written before the trip. Zero actual news value.
If asked about the poll, Sestak will ignore every aspect but the growth potential of his “unknown-ness”, despite the likelihood that the unknowns will mostly break the same as the “knowns”.
It’s a pretty bad starts when you can’t win with the knowns, and have to rely upon convincing the unknowns to come to a different conclusion.
John
Jul 22nd, 2009
David-
You forgot a few:
-I’m a Navy veteran.
-I was in the Navy, you know, 31 years.
-Some people call me admiral, cause I was an admiral. Cause I was in the Navy. For 31 years.
-Did I mention I was in the Navy?
David Diano
Jul 22nd, 2009
John-
Good points. LOL!
Well, at least he’ll soon be going down with his ship.
Jack
Jul 22nd, 2009
Just wait until this becomes about the issues. This is 9 months away, I’d like to know how many of the people polled had even thought about the election before they were called. Probably 30% tops.
Any one with any actual political sense knows polls 9 months out shouldn’t really be anything worth worrying about. Politics is a day-by-day game, it can all change very quickly.
David Diano
Jul 22nd, 2009
Jack-
Agreed. The Primary will hinge upon another 9 months of Specter’s votes and how the economy fares.
The General election will be a referendum on the direction.
David Diano
Jul 22nd, 2009
It looks like I was wrong on my prediction. Sestak came off with a bit of humble-pie and even suggested that he might not be the one to carry this fight against Specter.
His ego will probably re-inflate a bit around the campaign office, but that won’t change the reality of the situation.
A lot of Dems hated Weldon (he was an embarrassment). Specter doesn’t generate that level, because he is competent at his job.
Jonathan Geeting
Jul 23rd, 2009
David and John you guys are dreaming if you think Specter’s going to win over Southeast progressives when a more liberal alternative exists – especially one who isn’t a sickly 80-year-old Republican. These are the same people who voted for Rendell and Obama over more conservative counterparts. The more I learn about Sestak the more I like him. Look how successful Jim Webb has been as a military voice on the Democratic side advocating progressive positions on national security issues. It would be an inarguable advantage to have another military voice in the Senate to challenge Republican hegemony over defense issues, and you can already see how effective Sestak has been at leveraging his experience to make the Democrats’ argument credible on DADT, ending production of the F-22 and other military pork, and the war in Afghanistan. Specter’s history shows that he hews the party line up til the primary and then does whatever he wants after he wins. If he takes the most liberal position possible on every issue up until the primary, that’s still no basis to judge what he’ll do after that. He certainly isn’t running for another term in 2016, so there’s no accountability there. Sestak has a future in the party – we don’t even know if Specter will be alive 6 months from now.
David Diano
Jul 23rd, 2009
Jonathan-
There’s a more liberal alternative to Specter? Who? It’s certainly not Joe give-Bush-a-blank-Iraq-check Sestak.
Sestak’s “military voice” seems to back the bad military policies that Congress is supposed to be reigning in. McCain was for cutting the F-22, so it’s hardly an issue where Joe moved the ball down the field.
Sestak promised timetables on Iraq during his campaign, then voted against his own ideas. He even defended his abysmal vote with: “You elected me for my judgment”. Umm… no. Joe was elected to fulfill specific campaign promises. He failed utterly in the areas key to his election. Joe couldn’t be trusted with a single two-year term. He certainly doesn’t deserve a 6-year Senate seat where he can do more damage.
A Democratic Party with guys like Sestak as the “future” would be sad indeed. I’m a Dem to prevent guys like Sestak from gaining power.