Gerlach is PA-6

Dan-
If this is true, Sestak got out-raised by Toomey, who isn’t even breaking a sweat fundraising.

My predictions from a month ago:
http://www.pa2010.com/2009/06/sestak-continues-late-quarter-fundraising-push/

I did correctly predict Sestak would make $1 million at a minimum, but I also did think he’d reach $1.5 million. So, it sounds like Sestak’s coming up a little bit shorter than I gave him credit.
For cash on hand: I used $3.5 instead of $3.35 as his starting point. Also, I did forget to take in his operating expenses (which were $134,000 last quarter). Let’s go with $200,000 in operating expenses this quarter. So, new cash on hand would now be $3.15 million plus whatever Sestak raised this quarter.

Now the other thing I predicted was that he would get max donations from people, who can’t give again. I wrote:
“Also, Sestak is asking for a lot of MAX contributions. So, many of these people will be tapped out for future donations, but it will be spun like he can do this every quarter. This is shaping up to be the SAME problem Hillary had. She maxed out her donors early, then her fundraising stalled.”

And here’s today’s spin: “We believe this means we will have more cash on hand than any Senate challenger,” said Joe Langdon, spokesman for Sestak’s campaign committee

Bill Kortz is the only “challenger” to have filed papers. Sestak “officially” is running for Congress, not Senate.

Also, Sestak was asking for GENERAL election money as well as primary. We should look carefully at the amount of money raised/available for the Primary vs the General. It’s only the Primary money that can be spent against Specter.

Specter is going to blow Sestak away. He’ll make more than this in one day when Obama comes to town.

With this anemic fundraising, it’s no wonder Sestak is on his 67-county (including his own) tour. The whole point of raising tons of money was to spend it on media (TV, radio, ads) because he couldn’t visit the whole state effectively.

Now, Sestak has effectively “shot his load” with the recent tour gimmick. Sestak’s killing 3 weeks of his time traveling, during the vacation time period when people are paying the least attention to 2010 politics (except here on this blog).

Meanwhile, Specter is pacing himself and quietly doing his job, building his Dem street cred, introducing himself to Dems and laying the groundwork for his promised votes. The tortoise and the hare.

Dave,

Can I have some of what you are smoking — unless you are alreading conceeding that Sestak will be the Democratic nominee since you are comparing Sestak’s fundraising to Tommey? Too much…LOL!! Sestak already has more in the bank, $4.2 million, to Tommey’s $1.5 million.

Let’s see what “Snarlen Arlen” raised this quarter.

According to Rendell a couple of weeks ago, Sestak was gonna “get killed” and be outraised by Specter by 3 or 4 times!!!

Mike-
It’s simple math:
The rate of fund raising is what’s critical here. Toomey is not facing a serious primary challenge. So, he’ll have almost all his Primary money available for the General election. Sestak would burn through every dollar he has so far in less than a month, once he eventually starts running ads.
Sestak will have trouble sustaining this quarter’s rate, and matching fundraising next quarter. Possible, but difficult. It will look bad for him if the numbers decline, especially if Specter’s go up. Trend lines are can mean life or death for a campaign.

The only “bank” that matters regarding Toomey/Sestak this case is what Sestak and Toomey would have AFTER the 2010 Primary. Toomey will have 5 times the bank of Sestak, because Sestak will zero out his Primary funds.
But that won’t be terribly relevant, since Toomey will be running against Specter, anyway.

If Sestak was a stand-up guy (which is isn’t), after he loses the primary, he should funnel as much of his unspent General election money as he can to the Dem candidate for the PA-7 congressional district.

[...] post: Campaign direction preview: Sestak, Toomey over $1M, bounteous House … This entry was written by admin and posted on July 13, 2009 at 5:49 am and filed under Object. [...]

David,

Specter has to raise $3 Million – $4 Million this quarter — and crush Sestak. If Specter doesn’t, he’s lost any momentum he had with his party switch (Rendell said it himself, that Specter would raise 3 to 4 times what Sestak would).

You are right — “Trendlines can mean life or death for a campaign”!! And for Specter, his are in a downward spiral.

From the June 16-19, 2009 Franklin & Marshall Poll (page 6):

“The job performance ratings for Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Arlen Specter
and President Barack Obama have declined since our March survey. The decline in
the ratings of the governor and president are modest, but the change in ratings for
Senator Specter is startling. Senator Specter’s positive job approval rating dropped
from 52% in March to 34% in June. Even more troubling for the senator is that the
proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from
40% to 28%”

http://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll

Mike-
The “3 to 4 times” was Rendell’s assessment. I would go with “2 to 3 times” for THIS quarter. With Specter as a Dem newcomer, he hasn’t even had a full quarter (Specter’s switch didn’t occur until partway into the quarter). This quarter has been devoted to introducing himself to Dems and switching to a new group of donors (and giving back money to GOP donors).

Otherwise, yes, I think 3-4 times would be expected, and Specter should hit that next quarter. Rendell’s statement may be a reference to the entire campaign, and not just a single quarter.

Mike, the “trend line” for Dems in general is down because of the economy. If (when) the economy turns around, the numbers for all the Dems should go up.
Specter’s “Dem” numbers will go up when the big Dem votes come around.

So the “downward” spiral
a) is not part of a spiral, but a natural fluctuation
b) would mean the defeat of Dems across the board, if it really was a spiral.

You seem to enjoy counting your chickens before they are hatched, and forgetting that the hens will be laying more.

As far as I see it, this is Sestak’s numbers without the netroots, who will be behind him, has really kicked in. Kos has said he will wait til an official announcement to start bringing the bacon to Sestak. This is pretty damn impressive in my book. And from Specter’s rhetoric over the last few days, he’s desperate/scared of Sestak.

Acknowledging Sestak as credible this early just by mentioning him so much and taking talking points from David Diano is not a good strategy for the Specter camp.

Just wait til this becomes a debate on issues (as it will and should). Specter cannot win that Debate to a Democratic audience. Anyone who thinks he can has no sense of reality.

Jack-
1) Netroots will (should) be too busy keeping Dem seats and winning new Dem seats from GOP to be worried about pissing away money on Sestak. We already have two incumbent Dems, and a Primary drains money and helps Toomey.

2) I hope “Kos” is smarter than that.

3) Specter isn’t desperate/scared of Sestak. However, I think he’s tired of a pissant like Sestak taking pot-shots for free. I hardly blame him for shooting back. It was long overdue.

4) Having Sestak respond takes Sestak off message, and the headlines generally list the attack. One has to read further to get the response. Many people read the headline, and not the follow-up.
The headline sat pa2010 were: “Specter: ‘Sestak can dish it out but he can’t take it’”
and “Hitting back, Specter calls Sestak a ‘flagrant hypocrite’”
The front page of pa2010 had Specter’s side , but a reader would have to take the extra step of clicking the link to read Sestak’s reply.

5) By the the time for debate on the issues (Feb/March 2010), the debate on Sotomayor, EFCA, health care, and budget will already be over, because Specter will have already voted with the Dems.
Sestak set the terms of his challenge by questioning Specter’s Dem credentials. By the time the race gets to next spring, Specter will have the voting credentials and Sestak will have nothing.

6) Specter doesn’t need my help finding flaws with Sestak or his campaign.

7) Sestak has no real appreciation or understanding of the importance of the local party officials and the Democratic organization. He’ll learn soon enough (but too late), when the other county officials work against him, and his own counties pays him the same lip service he gave them the past few years. (What goes around, comes around.)

A little confused by the Gerlach ref – he can’t use his Federal money in a state race, so anything he reports on FEC won’t help him if he runs for Gov.

“Specter is going to blow Sestak away. He’ll make more than this in one day when Obama comes to town.”

What is the exact date of that fundraising appearance, David? Counting YOUR chickens a bit early, are we?

Allow me to pose the question in a more fair way: Do you predict that Obama will attend a Specter fundraiser before the end of 2009?

Jack

I agree that Sestak has to count on the netroots for sustained financial support. Because netroots money tends to arrive in smaller amounts over a longer period of time, doesn’t it follow, then, that it’s about time for Sestak to make his candidiacy official?

Lee-
The last I heard, a fundraiser in Philly was planned for July or August (2009) and the date was dependent on the President’s schedule. I’m pretty sure the Obama event was actually mentioned to Specter supporters in a fundraising letter a month ago.

With key votes on Sotomayor, EFCA, healthcare and budget coming up this year, I would expect that Obama would have a Specter fundraiser on the heels of one of those events to reinforce/reward Specter as a Dem.

Besides, they are going to want to knock Sestak out of the box early.

Sestak can talk the talk about Specter, but he’s going to have a tough time claiming that Obama is insincere (though Joe has been saying in his “heart of hearts” Obama favors him).

NOTE TO SPECTER CAMPAIGN: Make sure that in his speech, Obama directly states that Sestak is not in “his heart of hearts”. A little ridicule of what Sestak might write in his “Hello Kitty” diary and being so presumptuous would be in order.

You think some staffer or even Specter himself is gonna tell Obama what to say and then Obama will listen?

He is the president, he doesn’t take orders from anyone. Once again you show your disillusion towards the process.

Jack, you don’t seem to know Jack.

When someone like the President comes to help a campaign, he gets a list from the campaign of themes, talking points and zingers to work into the overall speech to reinforce/resonate with the candidate.

Obama would likely be unaware of details like Sestak’s running around “speaking for Obama’s heart”. I’m sure if made aware of it by the Specter campaign that Obama would be HAPPY to set the record straight. Obama’s coming to help Specter, so his staffers will pass the info to Obama’s staffers. This would be an appropriate zinger if Sestak persists in pretending to speak for Obama.

David

I would be surprised to see Obama at a Specter fundraiser that early (by 8-31-09). Agreed that timing an Obama appearance on the heels of the votes you listed (which may not occur by the end of August) makes lots of sense from Specter’s benefit. However, Obama is going to take Obama’s benefit into consideration as well.

Does he want to add another controversy to his extremely full plate now, or does he want to wait and see how the race develops over the next however many months? If Obama can avoid having to actively take sides before he can see how the race is going, he’d be smart to do so. No politician (and Obama’s a damn good one) wants unnecessarily to alienate a potentially victorious candidate (in this case Sestak) or his supporters.

On the other hand, I can see Obama attending a fundraiser for the PA Dem Party (i.e., funding for the general elections of ’09 and ’10). That would keep everybody’s options open. It also would diminish the possibility that the money would not be there for the Sestak-Specter winner to run a well financed camopaign against Toomey.