Comments on: In dramatic change, new poll shows Specter and Toomey in dead heat (Updated)

By: Brian Kline

Brian Kline — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 15:22:35 +0000

There’s no doubt Toomey press operation is in full gear this morning, but these numbers will play a bigger role in the Democratic primary fight. In the matchup polls Sestak holds a wider lead over Toomey in the southeat than Specter does. Toomey should never crack 35% in the southeast, yet he scores 41% when paired against Specter. Another blow for Specter is Luksik scoring 40% in a general election matchup.

By: Brian Kline

Brian Kline — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:58:11 +0000

I question the real significance of this poll considering both Sestak and Specter hold commanding leads over Tommey in the voter-rich southeast and southwest, where the race will be decided. It’s not surprising that Toomey is doing very well in central and northern PA. Until Toomey makes up real ground in the southeast and southwest, this race will be decided in the Democratic primary. Perhaps the most surprising number in this poll is Toomey beating Specter among union members. I think that speaks to Specter’s indecisiveness about EFCA.

By: David Diano

David Diano — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:23:12 +0000

Lee-
I don’t see a lot of momentum in this poll for Sestak. There’s more momentum for “unknown Republican” because of downturns for Dems (even Rendell and Obama have slipped).

By: David Diano

David Diano — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:20:28 +0000

Well, so much for Sestak gaining on Specter.
The F&M poll from last month was Specter 33% Sestak 13%. Now, Specter’s gone up 22 to 55% and Sestak only 10 to 23%. Wider gap for Specter.

Comparing with the last Quinnipiac poll from 2 months ago, Specter increased from 50% to 55%, while Sestak went from 21% to 23%. Again, Specter widens the gap.

The most significant number I noticed was the men/women breakdown. Specter has a 35 point lead over Sestak among women, but only 28 points among men. It looks like most of the women have moved past “Annita Hill”, and Joe’s looks aren’t swaying the ladies.

As for Specter/Toomey, this is a reflection of the overall economy hurting Dems, as Toomey still lacks name recognition and most people don’t realize how hard-right and out of touch he is.

Sestak’s months of attacks probably have hurt Specter’s approval somewhat (negative attacks rarely help), but not as much as the overall trendline for Dems, until the economy improves.

The poll shows Sestak getting beat by Toomey, and it’s by 41% to 28% among Independents. Sestak barely edges Toomey (38-34 in Union households).
Sestak beats Toomey in Philly and SE PA, but nowhere else. Specter beats Toomey there as well, PLUS by 20 points in Allegheny, where Sestak loses by 4 points.

Another area where Sestak shows surprising weakness is the number of “Hvn’t hrd enough” in Philly and SE PA. This is where Sestak lives, is in the news, and spend 3 million dollars on TV and radio defeating Curt Weldon. Yet, 58% in Philly don’t know enough about him to form an opinion, and 42% in the surrounding suburbs don’t seems to know much about him either.

Other than the weakness of the Dem brand for the Toomey fight, this poll should be a great relief to Specter that after the 67 county tour and numerous local newspaper stories, Sestak is getting no traction. Sestak can’t even use this poll for his argument that he can beat Toomey. Watch Sestak ignore this poll and quote older ones from a month ago instead.

By: Ron

Ron — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:13:25 +0000

Senator Sestack

Sounds Great

By: Lee Levan

Lee Levan — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:08:36 +0000

Just wait until Sestak’s name recognition rises throughout the state. The Sestak-Specter primary is too close to call; but Specter’s probably at his peak now, which means that Sestak has the momentum. Also, Sestak doesn’t have the same liabilities against Toomey as Specter does; so he’ll make a stronger candidate in the general election.

By: GOPHAWK

GOPHAWK — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:47:30 +0000

The heavy, sweaty embrace of Ed Spendell has produced less than Alren had expected. But it is too late to come back to his longtime beau. He has shown himself to be a strumpet.

By: Quinnipiac: Specter & Toomey in dead heat | PAWaterCooler.com

Quinnipiac: Specter & Toomey in dead heat | PAWaterCooler.com — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:34:56 +0000

[...] PA2010: Senator Arlen Specter’s wide lead over Republican Pat Toomey has evaporated, in the clearest sign yet that his party switch three months ago has damaged his credibility with voters, according to a new poll. [...]