Also I don’t recall Specter getting a lot more than 20% of the D vote in general elections in his past two tries. That “might” go up, but he will surely lose a lot of his R votes. I think his party switch will leave him “un-elected” come next year.

Time for a change I say

mike

Actually, shaping the perception of Sestak is EXACTLY the right strategy and one of the key reasons Weldon lost. In June/July of 2006, Sestak still had very little name recognition. Joe lucked out because the Weldon team incompetently missed their opportunity to define Joe. Had they done that, Joe would have wasted money trying to correct misconceptions. Instead, Weldon let Joe define himself, and it was Weldon who didn’t have the resources to alter the peoples’ view of Joe.

Lee, the loss of his seniority (and opportunity to regain it) is a far more likely explanation for Specter’s shift (beyond his natural tendency to be with us on most of the current issues). Specter is smart enough to know when the country is in crisis and that Obama has the answers and the party-of-NO doesn’t.

Joe’s got little support and even fewer friends in PA politics. At this point, I’m just waiting for him to give up his congressional seat so we can replace him with a real Democrat.

You read the poll correctly. John is comparing apples and oranges. What you wrote about Sestak having great room to grow in the name recognition category isn’t even arguable.

As for the reason Specter is moving to the left, the explanaton that Sestak’s candidacy is the primary cause is certainly the most plausible. Actually, if that is the explanation, it is a compliment to Specter’s political skills. It also is an early dividend from Sestak’s candidacy.

Sestak-Specter is going to be a fascinating election. You can tell that Specter supporters are worried, despite their denials, because they are trying to shape the peception of Sestak beofre he can define himself to the electorate.
Frankly, I think that it is going to be a close primary election.

The Sestak drones aren’t too good with logic. When asked to jump off a cliff, they say “How high?”.

Cause when I read the recent Q-Pac poll, I read that Specter had an approval rating among Democrats of 75%. Not bad vis-a-vis your magic 50% threshold.

And regarding your point that Sestak’s awful name recognition is a virtue, let me point out that 58% of people don’t know Sestak IN HIS OWN BACK YARD! In the Philly area which is so crucial for Dems in the general.

And no offense, but Democrats shouldn’t risk a Senate seat on a guy who’ll need to spend several million bucks just to win the counties next door to his district. If we want PA to stay a blue state, we can’t nominate someone who’ll have to play defense against Pat Toomey in Montgomery and Bucks Counties.

And on top of that, your assumption is that increased Sestak recognition will equate to increased support for Sestak. I think there are quite a few folks around the state who would disagree with that premise. (Heck, there are even some folks in DelCo who would disagree with you).

For example:
(“Allegheny County party chairman Jim Burn said (of Sestak) “you are attempting to create an inference that perhaps I have endorsed Congressman Sestak when I have not,” and southeastern Democratic caucus chairwoman Penny Gerber said the e-mail “grossly mischaracterizes my quote from another independent publication.””)

We need someone like Specter who help the statewide Democratic ticket. Someone who can bring millions of dollars, thousands of supporters and high-profile celebrities to Pennsylvania to help out our candidate for governor. No one is going to pay for a fancy fundraiser to listen to Joe Sestak bloviate about the Navy for 3 hours.

So, like I said Jon, I’d love you to teach me to read a poll, but I think to fully get it, I’ll need to borrow your rosy Sestak glasses.

Let’s have Nate do an analysis on Joe “goes-the-way-the-wind-blows” Sestak before you get too worried about trusting Specter.

Specter has pretty much voted the way he campaigned. Sestak has voted the OPPOSITE of his campaigning on the very issues that got him elected. Sestak’s already proved he can’t be trusted on his campaign promises. There are a lot of progressives unhappy with him.

Anyone who has watched Specter over the years could tell that he seemed more like a prisoner trapped in the GOP than a happy camper. The Democratic party is a better fit for him that the GOP.

The electorate rewards good votes. That is why most Dems have voted for Specter at least once.