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Sestak Senate run would mean big opening for GOP in PA-7

If Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) decides to run for Senate, it will create a huge opportunity for the GOP to recapture his Delaware County seat in what would likely be one of the most competitive House races in the country, analysts and party insiders widely agree.

Sestak, the former Navy admiral, won the historically conservative 7th District in 2006, unseating Curt Weldon and becoming the first Democrat to hold the office in two decades. With Sestak now eying the Senate race, Republicans are licking their lips at what could be their best shot at winning back a House seat in 2010.

“I think it’s a great opportunity if he does run for senate,” said county GOP chairman Thomas Judge. “We certainly are looking with a sharp eye at what the Congressman does.”

With Sestak having all but declared his candidacy, Judge said he had spoken to several people about the prospect of running, but wouldn’t say who the possible candidates were. Wealthy businessman Steven Welch and former prosecutor Craig Williams, who ran against Sestak last year, are both rumored to be considering a run. Former U.S. Attorney and current gubernatorial Pat Meehan is also said to be looking at the race. State Representative Bryan Lentz (D-Delaware) is emerging as the likely Democrat in the race.

The prospect of a high-powered race between Lentz and Meehan, in particular, has political junkies fawning with excitement.

G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, said an open race would likely be one of the 10 most-watched in the country.

Provided the Republicans can come up with a  strong candidate, it creates a very competitive situation,” he said.

It’s unlikely the GOP will have any trouble on that count. Unlike other suburban Philadelphia counties where Republican power has waned considerably in recent years, the Republican Party in Delaware County is still a potent political machine. It maintains a strong hold over many local offices, and its endorsed judicial candidates fared better last month than endorsed Republicans in other suburban counties. Republicans still outnumber Democrats in the district, though it’s a large block of independent voters that has the power to sway elections.

“It’s one of the most powerful [county parties] in the state,” state GOP spokesman Michael Barley said. “They have a good committee that’s very active and well managed. That can only help you in these types of races. When you’re looking at a race where turnout’s going to be a key factor, it’s good to have a party apparatus that can bring out voters.”

Anthony Campisi, vice-chair of the county Democratic Party, said Sestak’s depature wouldn’t mean a Democratic loss in 2010.

“It’ll be competitive, but I think we certainly have a strong chance to keep the seat in Democratic hands,” he said.

And Sestak doesn’t have to leave, Judge said, for Republicans to mount a challenge.

“Even if Joe Sestak stays there, we do have people who have said they’d be interested in running,” he said.

June 2, 2009 at 9:11 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Bryan Lentz, Craig Williams, Delaware County, Joe Sestak, PA-7, Pat Meehan, Steven Welch

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