Sestak had about $3.5 million and Specter about $6.5 million at the last filing. Based on Sestak “quietly” raising about $600,000 the previous quarter, I would expect that Sestak raises close to $1.5 million with his active push (though some of that money will be General election money, and the distinction will be downplayed and ignored). So, my guess is he’ll have about $5 million on hand for the filing ($5.5 tops).

I’m not hearing that Specter is raising money, so much as meeting and greeting. Sestak could well out-raise Specter for the quarter, yet remain behind in total. The story would then become how Sestak won the quarter and spun (by either Sestak or the media) to make people believe that Sestak was actually ahead of Specter in funds.

Also, Sestak is asking for a lot of MAX contributions. So, many of these people will be tapped out for future donations, but it will be spun like he can do this every quarter. This is shaping up to be the SAME problem Hillary had. She maxed out her donors early, then her fundraising stalled.

If Specter manages to trounce Sestak this quarter and really pull away, Sestak will have no shot of catching up and lose momentum.

The collection deadline is June 30th, but I think they have about two weeks to actually file. It will be interesting to see who jumps out first to announce their results.

[...] Joe Sestak is holding two fundraisers this weekend, in the runup to the close of the 2nd quarter financing period June 30, reports Pa2010: [...]

Sestak raised $534,000 last quarter but I think Sestak’s gonna find it to be a very challenging quarter and will not be able to raise the money he did before. Not only has he yet to officially announce, but look at who he’s running against and the state of the economy.

Sestak’s donors are probably taking a “wait and see” position. Sestak already has enough of a $3.5 million war chest to defend his House seat (which he won by 20 points last time) — why give? And he’s not announced he’s running for Senate — why give? If Sestak raises $400K- 500K this quarter, he’ll be fine; that’s more than most Congressman raise anyway in a quarter.

The real test for Sestak will be, if he runs, what amount he raise in his first quarter as an announced candidate. That e-mail said Sestak has the 2nd highest amount of cash on hand of any Congressman and 7th overall of any Senator or Senator challenger — he’s already got credibility coming out of the gate, if he runs.

As to Specter, he raised $1.3 million last quarter. Specter has always raised $$ from Dem donors in Philly. He’s got Rendell in his corner. Specter and Rendell are friends and both prolific fundraisers. Rendell has been very vocal in not wanting Sestak to run. Rendell is going to put the squeeze on Dem donors not to give to Sestak.

Specter and Rendell are going to send a message to Sestak — before Sestak enters the race — by raising a sh*t load of money this quarter to deter Sestak. My take, Specter raises $2 million to $3 million this quarter.

Having re-read what I wrote, I’ve convinced myself even more about the impact of Rendell in this race and am revising my estimates down for Sestak, and up for Specter.

Sestak only raises $300K (due to Rendell squeezing Dems not to give); and Specter raises $3 million- $4 million (to deter Sestak ever getting in the race).

Pete-
Very interesting. However, there is no chance that Sestak will raise less this quarter than his previous quarter. He is pulling out all the stops. There are plenty of his fans/donors that think he walks on water an would love the idea of having him in the Senate (they also believe he’s a liberal). He’s been on TV and pushing hard with fundraising letters begging for max contributions before the Jun 30th deadline.
For the previous quarter he still did fundraising, but it was more under the radar. Also, with a Senate run, he can appeal to people outside of his district that don’t like Specter.

I expect Sestak to raise $1 million at a minimum.

Back in 2006 (when I used to help and visit the campaign office) the amount raised for the quarter was the most closely guarded secret, known only to Joe, his siblings and (maybe) his campaign manager. The funny thing was that each quarter, about a week before it was announced, I would go to his sister and make my “official guess”. I got it dead-on each time. My secret: Sestak himself.
Based purely on his tone and excitement trying to build up interest in his announcement, I guessed how much better he did than the previous quarter. It was just ironic that Joe was the unwittingly the ultimate leaker.

Joe needs a BIG number this quarter to make his candidacy viable, so can make some BIG headlines then file and really start the race officially. You can be absolutely certain that he is getting fundraising totals and updated projections on a daily basis. Sestak is making stronger and stronger statements about running. Therefore, he is getting closer and closer to whatever BIG number he has set as a threshold. If he could get only $300K, he would have shut up and slinked away already claiming “victory” in getting Specter to move to the Left.

The main question is no longer whether he will run, but when will he announce to maximize the coverage of his fundraising. My question is how much more does Specter have to raise to make Sestak look not viable or take the wind out of the sails of a press announcement.

Sestak does not need BIG headlines, he already gets BIG headlines.

A Sestak/Specter race has already surpassed next year’s governor’s race as THE race in PA, that’s what everyone wants to see. The “young upstart” against the “anointed one of political royalty” – many subparts to come.

No one is talking about Corbett, Meehan, Gerlach, Onorato, Wagner or Knox all who have been exploring/running for governor for 6 months – and they’re running for an open governor’s seat. Those guys would die for the press coverage that Sestak is getting.

Specter switches parties 5 weeks ago; Sestak talks about challenging him – and all of a sudden the oxygen is sucked out of the room in PA politics by the possibility of this race.

To use Allen Inverson’s famous “practice rant” news conference as an anology “We’re talking here about a primary race! Not a general election race! We’re talking here about a primary race! A primary race! Not a general election race! A primary race!”

PennQuak92
I think the reason Sestak is making the headlines is because Specter is so famous and his party switch affects the balance of the Senate and is a national story. If Specter stayed in the GOP, his race with Toomey would be getting the focus. If Sestak was running without Specter’s switch, he’d be getting much less attention.

Also, Sestak’s “cheating” a bit by going on cable political shows with what they expect to be “breaking news”, only to “announce” that he’s basically “still on the pot”. Free press coverage, with zero news value. How many times will the villagers be fooled by the Little Boy Who Cried Wolf?

I think the problem with the Governor’s race is that most people don’t even know there is a race nor that Rendell isn’t running again. The GOP candidates can’t seem to decide to run for Gov, Lt Gov, Senate or Congress. It’s unfocused, so follows likewise the attention.
Also, I don’t think any of them has collected $4 million (from pretending to run for congressional reelection) as a hook for their stories.