Issue No. 1: It’s still the economy, stupid

It’s widely accepted that John McCain lost any hope of taking the presidency last year when the economy collapsed, forcefully jerking the conversation away from any focus on national security and keeping it squarely on economic issues.

As Pennsylvanians prepare to elect their next Governor, decide whether the incumbent Senator deserves another term and pick their representative for Congress, analysts, pollsters, party insiders and politicians alike agree on one thing: The econmy will once again issue No. 1, the factor that can make or break politicians and their candidacies.

“I think there isn’t any doubt it will dominate the election,” said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College. “Pennsylvania has historically been one of the states that reflects national angst about the economy.”

And with candidates of both parties looking to President Obama as either political friend or foil, the way voters turn the lever could have less to do with the candidates on the ballot than with the national economic trends.

“Either way, if the economy rises or falls over the next year, it’s going be largely attributed to what has come down from the Obama adminsitration,” said Muhlenberg College pollster and political scientist Chris Borick. “The perception is he’s at the helm, he’s steering economic politicy, he’s going to get the blame or credit, and along with him, Democrats can rise with him or receive some of the blame.”

With that in mind, Republicans have to be hoping the Obama economic policies don’t work, even if they might not always admit so publicly. If the economy turns around, an electoral climate that seemed like it couldn’t get any worse for the GOP last year could indeed become more harsh. But if unemployment remains high and worries over the national debt come to the forefront, is Democrats on the ballot that will bear the brunt of the consequences.

With the state facing a multi-billion dollar budget deficit, the gubernatorial race in particular could hinge on economic issues, more so than the Senate race which will likely be more of a referendum on incumbent Senator Arlen Specter.

“Any candidate for Governor will have to tackle the economic downturn that is the number one issue in the Commonwealth,” said Joseph DiSarro, a political science professor at Washington & Jefferson College. “A candidate for the governorship will have to have specific policy suggestions with respect to the economy, and will have to demonstrate that he or she can work effectively with the federal government in bringing money to the state.”

The last requirement could spell trouble for Republicans, who have been naturally resistant to accepting stimulus dollars from Washington.