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How will the 2009 state budget battle shape 2010 elections?

By calling for a 16 percent increase in the personal income tax in order to keep state spending at pre-economic crisis levels, Gov. Ed Rendell has placed his Democrat colleagues in Harrisburg, particularly in the state House, in a box—and potentially at great political risk in 2010. Democrats will have to choose whether to support the agenda of a lame-duck governor, or stand up for their constituents and reject his plan to increase taxes on families already struggling to make ends meet.

Make no mistake: The Governor’s plan is a direct assault on the economic security of Pennsylvania families. Most Pennsylvania families—who are already struggling to pay their bills and provide the essentials for their families—will be significantly impacted by a tax increase.

While their Republican colleagues in the state Senate passed a bill that cut state spending in order to make up for a $3 billion budget shortfall, potentially vulnerable Democrats have watched the governor travel around the state claiming that any budget cuts would result in an apocalyptic shutdown of nearly every state agency and their programs. It’s not surprising, then, that early indications show that many Democratic state legislators fear the political fallout of higher taxes.

Have these Democratic legislators suddenly embraced the free-market economics and understand that the best way to grow the economy is to allow hardworking Pennsylvanians to keep more of their tax dollars, or is it because they understand that voters will have no problem tossing them out of office next November? I believe it probably has more to do with the latter.
It will be interesting to see if legislators get the chance to vote on the governor’s plan, and show Pennsylvanians where they truly stand. The choice is simple: A vote for a tax increase puts legislators on the side of the governor and big government, while a vote against the Democratic budget shows they side with hardworking Pennsylvanians already struggling to make ends meet.

The GOP will continue to stand behind our Republican legislators as they fight this potentially devastating tax increase. We hope, however, that legislators get an opportunity to vote on a tax increase—as it will give us an opportunity to target vulnerable Democratic seats as we try to win back control of the state House.

June 18, 2009 at 4:56 pm

--Michael Barley

Tags: Budget, Ed Rendell, House Democrats

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