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There’s elections this year, too

Just want to share my predictions for the 2009 statewide primaries. These projections have very good math (I got SD-29 on the ball with the same formula), and 2009 can be a good 2010 preview. The reason for that lies in the fact that if an off-year, statewide election just cruises Democratic, the GOP is in trouble for making up the gap in 2010, when more voters, especially Democrats, are likely to show up. I did not adjust for turnout.

Republican Primary for Supreme Court, choosing one
Joan Orie Melvin (R-Allegheny): 52.30 percent, 1,696,370 votes
Cheryl Lynn Allen (R-Allegheny): 28.62 percent, 928,115 votes
Paul Panepinto (R- Philadelphia): 19.08 percent, 618,906 votes

Democratic Primary for Supreme Court, Choosing One
Jack A. Panella (D-Northampton): 100.00 percent, 4,480,691 votes

Republican Primary for Superior Court, Choosing Three
Judith Olson (R-Allegheny): 34.83 percent, 3,389,019
Sallie Updyke Mundy (R-Tioga): 34.12 percent, 3,319,935
Templeton Smith, Jr. (R-Allegheny): 31.05 percent, 3,021,219

Democratic Primary for Superior Court, Choosing Three
Anne Lazarus (D-Philadelphia): 22.30 percent, 2,997,582
Robert Colville (D-Allegheny): 19.00 percent, 2,553,994
Kevin F. McCarthy (D-Allegheny): 17.27 percent, 2,321,446
John Milton Younge (D-Philadelphia): 15.52 percent, 2,086,210
Tom Munley (D-Lackawanna): 13.09 percent, 1,759,567
Paula A. Patrick (D-Philadelphia): 12.82 percent, 1,723,274

Republican Primary for Commonwealth Court, Choosing Two
Al Frioni, Jr. (R-Allegheny): 37.58 percent, 2,437,733
Kevin Brobson (R-Dauphin): 34.08 percent, 2,210,695
Patricia McCullough (R-Allegheny): 28.34 percent, 1,838,354

Democratic Primary for Commonwealth Court, Choosing Two
Jimmy Lynn (D-Philadelphia): 28.54 percent, 2,557,578
Daniel K. Bricmont (D-Allegheny): 23.33 percent, 2,090,690
Stephen Pollock (D-Philadelphia): 18.05 percent, 1,617,529
Linda S. Judson (D-Allegheny): 11.53 percent, 1,033,247
Michael D. Sherman (D-Allegheny): 11.53 percent, 1,033,247
Barbara Behrend Ernsberger (D-Allegheny): 7.02 percent, 629,089

May 13, 2009 at 11:14 am

--Daniel Livingston

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