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Ridge out; who’s in?

Well we certainly picked a good month to start a new Web site didn’t we? Just as the Specter-is-hot-Specter-is cold-Specter-is-hot-again story was beginning to peter out Tom Ridge decides to run . . . and then not to. What will be next, a replay of Casey-Scranton, with one of the original Casey’s granddaughters standing in? What is Richard Thornburgh doing these days, anyway?

The most entertaining aspect of all this is that—for a party that has supposedly run out of moderates—the Republicans have a lot of moderates, don’t they? No sooner is Ridge out than Gerlach and maybe Scranton and who knows who else is ready to step in. (As Rick Santorum noted in his Inquirer column yesterday, Specter lasted 30 years as a Republican moderate but may not make it 30 days with the Democrats—he’s already lost his seniority and has to scramble for money to avoid firing staff.)

Gerlach is an interesting case. He’s won a couple of times in a close district and that is enough to make you a superstar these days. But he almost lost to an underfunded candidate in 2008 and he is, well, a bit on the bland side (although that can help, too). Having had a series of close races, he’s proven himself a good fundraiser, which never hurts when Arlen in is in town.

One remaining wild card is geography. As several observers have noted, Specter’s principal liability may not be that he is too liberal, but that he is heavily identified with the Philadelphia area (this is part of the reason that Allyson Schwartz and Josh Shapiro didn’t like the race against him). Ridge, who almost defines western Pennsylvania, was well-equipped to take advantage of this. Is a Congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs similarly well situated? We’ll find out—until the next surprise.

May 8, 2009 at 9:49 am

--Michael Livingston

Tags: Arlen Specter, Jim Gerlach, Rick Santorum, Tom Ridge

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