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Joe Sestak’s big week

While Democratic Party heavyweights like President Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell were showing nothing but love to Senator Arlen Specter last week, Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) was taking to the airwaves—and sounding a bit peeved.

Increasingly so, actually. Almost from the moment Specter made his blockbuster announcement, all the way through the weekend, Sestak sometimes seemed omnipresent on cable news, making the rounds and reiterating his now well-worn talking point that he wants to see what Specter is actually “running for.”

His words, though always measured, sounded stronger as the week went on. And by the time he was finished on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday (video below), Sestak had established himself as the most vocal Democratic critic of party leaders’ decision to back Specter.

“I’m kind of disappointed in the Democratic political establishment in Washington D.C.,” he said.

“I’m not sure he’s a Democrat yet,” Sestak added.

Technically he’s right—voter registration is closed in Pennsylvania until later this month. But all in all, the week provided a striking contrast after Sestak had said almost nothing publicly about the prospect of a Senate run up to that point.

His sudden interest in the race, some speculated, showed he had been planning to run all along.

“He was really keeping his thoughts and his plans somewhat to himself,” said Cliff Wilson, the Democratic Party chairman in Sestak’s 7th District. “I think it’s clear now that he had decided to run next year. You can just sense that in the way he initially responded, or at least I sensed it. This is someone who had made up his mind, and here comes something unexpected.”

Whether or not Sestak ends up running, the political advantages of the position he has staked out are clear. He can continue soaking up the spotlight, talking about the need for political independence from the party establishment and touting his district—he has mentioned the storied Llanerch Diner that resides in his district at least a few times.

Meanwhile, if Specter begins to hew more Democratic in his floor votes, Sestak can claim some credit for pushing him that way. And if growing liberal calls for a more competitive primary reach a boiling point, Sestak can be in prime position to capitalize.

“He’s in a really good spot right now,” Muhlenberg College political scientist Chris Borick said. “If I’m Joe Sestak right now, I take some time to get my feet planted as a possible alternative to Specter.”
In his latest CNN interview, Sestak made clear he intends to take that time, indicating he won’t make a final decision for a few months. He wants to see how Specter votes on key issues, and Specter’s vote against President Obama’s budget—only hours after he stood with Obama at the White House—will clearly give Sestak and other Democrats pause.

There is political risk in his approach—but not much. Boasting a big campaign war chest and an easy reelection last year, he doesn’t necessarily need help from the party to keep his House seat. If he eventually decides against a run, he can continue to criticize Specter, Obama and Rendell on the air without much fallout.

Wilson, a Sestak ally who emphasized he hasn’t spoken with the Congressman about the race since Specter’s defection, put the odds of a Sestak run at 50-50.

“I think there clearly is a part of him that wants to run, but he’s always been very thoughtful in terms of the moves he makes and the things he does,” Wilson said.

“He’s a very difficult person to predict,” Wilson added.

May 4, 2009 at 11:24 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak

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