ANALYSIS: Once again, Specter’s fate could hinge on card-check

In March, Senator Arlen Specter was under an extraordinary amount of pressure regarding the Employee Free Choice Act. With attacks from the right becoming more fierce and his primary reelection prospects looking more and more difficult, Specter said he would oppose the “card-check” bill to ease worker unionization. And for a moment, he seemed to have quelled conservative anger against him and secured his political survival in a way that only Specter could.

Two months later, after riding something of a political carousel, Specter is right back where he started. Now running for reelection as a Democrat, Specter is once again being squeezed, this time by liberals and labor officials who want him to back some kind of compromise for the bill. And just as opposing it was seen as critical for his Republican primary hopes, supporting it now could prove just as important if he hopes to make it out of the Democratic primary next year.

“He now faces tremendous pressure from his left flank, just as he faced it as a Republican from his right flank,” said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College. “I don’t think there’s any doubt he’d like to find a way to support this if he can.

“There’s no doubt that this has become the thorniest issue he has to deal with at the moment,” Madonna added.

After announcing his party-switch last month, Specter insisted he wouldn’t change his position on card-check. But that stance gave way almost immediately to the political reality. With Democrats eyeing their new colleague warily, labor groups targeting him and Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7) licking his lips at a possible primary challenge, reports were emerging last week that Specter was open to a compromise. He recently called the chances for striking a deal “pretty good,” and negotiations over the bill have picked up speed in recent days.

Specter’s office confirmed that “he and his staff have been meeting with labor, business and Senate leaders … on the matter.”

Even if he does support some form of the bill, the political relief could once again prove temporary. With big votes coming up on health care, energy and a new Supreme Court Justice, this is surely not the last time Specter will face such a tough position. And though a potent issue in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, political will to move the bill through Congress right now could prove weaker than some labor leaders hope.

Still, if he backs card-check, analysts and party insiders agree, challenging him in a primary could be almost impossible. Labor would line up behind him, and even some skeptical rank-and-file Democrats could be expected to fall in line.

One Democratic staffer on Capitol Hill said support for Specter could hinge on what kind of compromise legislation gets his support.

“It depends on what he comes out in favor of,” the staffer said. “Is it a good bill that’s helpful for labor or is it a watered down version of the Employee Free Choice Act that won’t help labor? Senator Specter’s unpredictable, so it’s hard to guess what kind of bill he come out in favor of.”

David Glancey, a former Democratic Party chief in Philadelphia, said the stakes in the card-check debate were simple for Specter.

“If there’s some modified version of the bill that he’s able to support, I think it’s over,” Glancey said.

But if there isn’t, things could prove more difficult.

“With [Sestak] considering a Democratic primary challenge, there’s a lot of incentive for Specter to worry about where his labor endorsement is coming from,” Andy Stern, the Service Employees International Union president, told the Las Vegas Sun recently. “He has to deal with the party’s progressive left.”

One thing is certain, Madonna said: “This is a weird environment where almost anything can happen at anytime.”