The Wagner toss-up: Governor or Senate?

For months, Auditor General Jack Wagner’s name has been floating around political circles as a potential Democratic candidate for governor. Only thing is, his name’s been mentioned almost as often as a possible candidate for Senate.

So which one is it? Wagner fueled speculation in December when he told a reporter he was interested in both races. Whatever his eventual decision, it will have a profound impact on both races.

Political analysts, consultants and party insiders differ greatly on which road Wagner should take. Some quickly point to the Senate race as an easier primary, where Wagner would standout against what is, for now, a relatively weak field of Democratic candidates. Others say Wagner’s background in state government makes the governor’s race a better fit. And still others say his best bet is to lay low, keep raising money and wait to see how both races develop before diving into one. Almost everyone with an opinion is quick to add what a vexing decision it is.

“If I knew that I’d stop talking to you and go get a job with him,” G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, said when asked which office Wagner should pursue.

At the moment, most agree that a gubernatorial run would be tougher than a Senate run. At least three other Democrats are likely seeking the party’s nomination for governor, including Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, who is from the Pittsburgh area like Wagner and is considered the early front-runner by many party insiders. Splitting votes from western Pennsylvania with Onorato would make beating candidates from vote-rich southeastern Pennsylvania more difficult. And even if Wagner won a gubernatorial primary, a strong GOP field and Pennsylvania’s propensity for kicking the incumbent party out of the governor’s office every 8 years foreshadows a difficult general election climate.

Still, Wagner’s state government profile—he was a state Senator for a decade before being elected Auditor General in 2004—has some urging him to pursue the governorship, even if its the tougher path.

“In a sense, Wagner’s been preparing to run for governor for a long time by virtue of what he’s done in state government,” Madonna said. “He’s able to understand the issues without having to spend much time on it.”

In a Senate primary field, Wagner could potentially tower above other Democratic candidates. The only Democrat to officially enter the race is former National Constitution Center CEO Joe Torsella, who despite his political connections has never held elected office (he lost a 2004 primary run for Congress to Allyson Schwartz, now the 13th District Congresswoman). State Representative Josh Shapiro (D-Montgomery) is heavily considering a run, but has nowhere near the statewide profile of Wagner. And while a few Democratic members of Congress have been mentioned as possible candidates, none have signaled an intention enter the race anytime soon.

There would also be more recent precedent in Wagner jumping from his current job to a gig in Washington; Senator Bob Casey was state Auditor General and state Treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006.

But the ultimate variable in the equation is what will happen to incumbent Senator Arlen Specter in the Republican primary. Conservatives are hoping that former Congressman Pat Toomey can dispatch Specter in the primary, and analysts widely agree that any Republican candidate other than Specter would be easily beaten by the Democrats.

“Given what’s happening on the Republican side and the likelihood that the Republicans will put someone up farther to the right to get rid of Specter, I would lean toward the Senate,” said Muhlenberg College pollster and political science professor Chris Borick.

There might also be some political rivalry in play. It’s no secret that Onorato and Wagner have clashed politically in the past, and there is widespread speculation that Wagner wants to block his foe from the governorship.

In a recent interview, Wagner downplayed such talk.

“In running for election, I don’t focus on my opponents,” he said. “I project a positive message and talk about the issues that are important to the public.”

Larry Ceisler, a longtime Democratic political consultant in Philadelphia, said it was unlikely that Wagner and Onorato would significantly divide western Pennsylvania voters.

“I think at the end of the day, one will be the dominant candidate coming out of that region,” he said. “It’s almost like they’ll be having a primary within the primary. I don’t see them splitting the vote.”

In the interview, Wagner hinted where he might be heading.

“I look at the governorship as more appealing,” he said.